cptcatz Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 Just had an intense band move through Boca. Up to 4.62 inches of rain for the day and pressure is below 1008 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 Looking at radar the LLC still moving in a NW direction. But looking at IR. Sadly you can make out the MLC and it appears to be due west. Its stacked for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 winds gusting to 47 even a bit inland at witham field in stuart. We are getting frequent 50-60 mph gusts now to the east of there on the coast 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 31 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said: Powerful deep convection, the deepest convection in the whole system, is firing in a band north of the center, and this feature will hit the SE FL coast. This band may have the most powerful winds in the entire storm. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso2-14-200-1-10-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined Already the conditions out there are solidly tropical storm force, with lots of wind and torrential squalls moving through very often. What’s the avocado situation? My buddy in Miami just had his avocado tree snap in half. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 12 minutes ago, tdp146 said: What’s the avocado situation? My buddy in Miami just had his avocado tree snap in half. Lol The tree is fine thank God. I got 15 avocados here inside, only a few stubborn ones left on the tree. I was just out there remarking on how these are definitely the highest winds of the day. The wind is roaring through the trees and I'm hearing the hurricane howl every few minutes. Indeed, a site on the coast in Ft Lauderdale just recorded 66 MPH. https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=AU497&unit=0&timetype=GMT Things really intensifying as this primary convective band moves in. I think we could reach hurricane force in the coming hour once this band moves in. Also tremendous potential for flooding, it is at the exact right configuration to train over us. P.S. Recon confirms that the nice looking eye feature that is about to make landfall in the Keys only has winds of 40-50 MPH. The real action is up here in Dade/Broward/Palm Beach. I think recon will fly through this band and check it out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 1 hour ago, cptcatz said: Getting the strongest winds of the day now in Boca Raton (4.5 miles inland) My uncle lives in Boca on intercoastal, his roof is leaking all over his house. Buckets everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FloridaTracker Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 5 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said: The tree is fine thank God. I got 15 avocados here inside, only a few stubborn ones left on the tree. I was just out there remarking on how these are definitely the highest winds of the day. The wind is roaring through the trees and I'm hearing the hurricane howl every few minutes. Indeed, a site on the coast in Ft Lauderdale just recorded 66 MPH. https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=AU497&unit=0&timetype=GMT Things really intensifying as this primary convective band moves in. I think we could reach hurricane force in the coming hour once this band moves in. Also tremendous potential for flooding, it is at the exact right configuration to train over us. P.S. Recon confirms that the nice looking eye feature that is about to make landfall in the Keys only has winds of 40-50 MPH. The real action is up here in Dade/Broward/Palm Beach. I think recon will fly through this band and check it out. Will recon find something juicy or will the dirty north side be a let down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 The true eye per radar shows a solid landfall between Layton, Conch Key, Marathon and Islamorada to Key Largo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
finatic jason Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 No way we keep power through the night. Power flickering frequently here in the squalls. Occasional blue lightning. It’s expected as we are a bit rural. Genny and 30 gal of fuel ready to go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 Starting to see a flare up over the keys on IR and WV. The northern eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 1 hour ago, Prospero said: Edit: I can't seem to find a radar right now. Here you go: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 55 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: My uncle lives in Boca on intercoastal, his roof is leaking all over his house. Buckets everywhere. I just went into my bathroom and noticed water pooling on the floor, coming in from where the wall meets the floor. Ugh. Watching this next band closely on radar. As of now it looks like it may slide to the south of us but hard to tell with the curving movement. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 Man that’s a nasty looking band over FLL and Boca up into West Palm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 18z HWRF has an amusing scenario late week for Tampa Bay. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 looks like a H to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKTWISTER Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 So if Eta makes landfall on the south as a tropical storm and later hits further north as a hurricane does that count as two separate landfalls for records or is it still considered one landfalling storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 Tropical Storm Eta Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 1100 PM EST Sun Nov 08 2020 ...ETA MAKES LANDFALL IN LOWER MATECUMBE KEY FLORIDA... Doppler radar data indicate that Eta has made landfall on Lower Matecumbe Key in the Florida Keys as a strong tropical storm with maximum winds estimated to be near 65 mph (100 km/h). A WeatherFlow station at Carysfort Reef Light in the Florida Keys recently reported a sustained wind of 52 mph (84 km/h) with a gust of 63 mph (101 km/h). Another Weatherflow station in Key Largo recently reported a wind gust of 53 mph (85 km/h). A wind gust of 47 mph (76 km/h) was measured at Homestead Air Force Base in Homestead, Florida. SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EST...0400 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.9N 80.7W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM ENE OF MARATHON FLORIDA ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM ENE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Blake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted November 9, 2020 Author Share Posted November 9, 2020 Eta is now moving SSW. Though it looks pretty anemic thanks to very stable dry air out of the west being pulled in by the mid-to-upper trough/ULL, there is still a good stream of moisture feed out of the Caribbean on the backside. As Eta continues to dive SSW today, robust convection will likely begin to weaken the ULL due to diabetic heating. As such a small anticyclone should begin to form over Eta to further aid in divergence. Dry air may have less of an influence without the mid-level flow infringing upon Eta's vortex. If convection can ramp up this evening, it should be able to close off and shield itself somewhat from the mid-level influences of dry air and shear. This has been modeled consistently by the HWRF, which continues to want to ramp Eta back up into a hurricane. How strong a hurricane will likely depend on how far SSW the vorticity maximum can get by tonight, how long it persists there over the Gulf Loop (which is still very warm at the surface - 29ºC), and how fast the ULL can be filled by Eta's convective influences. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormwatcherJ Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 12 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Eta is now moving SSW. Though it looks pretty anemic thanks to very stable dry air out of the west being pulled in by the mid-to-upper trough/ULL, there is still a good stream of moisture feed out of the Caribbean on the backside. As Eta continues to dive SSW today, robust convection will likely begin to weaken the ULL due to diabetic heating. As such a small anticyclone should begin to form over Eta to further aid in divergence. Dry air may have less of an influence without the mid-level flow infringing upon Eta's vortex. If convection can ramp up this evening, it should be able to close off and shield itself somewhat from the mid-level influences of dry air and shear. This has been modeled consistently by the HWRF, which continues to want to ramp Eta back up into a hurricane. How strong a hurricane will likely depend on how far SSW the vorticity maximum can get by tonight, how long it persists there over the Gulf Loop (which is still very warm at the surface - 29ºC), and how fast the ULL can be filled by Eta's convective influences. Thanks for the update...how confident are you in the NHC track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted November 9, 2020 Author Share Posted November 9, 2020 Thanks for the update...how confident are you in the NHC track? Seems reasonable. Interestingly the 06z HWRF has come in much weaker and disorganized versus all the previous runs that wanted Eta to experience another round of robust intensification. It figures. lol... We'll see if the NHC begins to back off reintensification to a hurricane on the next advisory. I doubt it based on one factor of guidance. As for track, it still makes more sense that the vortex either eventually makes landfall along the Panhandle to Big Bend area or gets sheared off and degenerates into remnant low along the NGOM coast by the incoming CONUS trough. The 06 HWRF also does move the system more west which would subject it to a harsher environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 what an over performance it’s going to take at least a day or two to clean up the downed trees and debris from my yard 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TAP Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 The center made landfall on my key late last night. My house is 20 ft from Atlantic and 4 ft in elevation. Wind was not bad and was actually worse yesterday morning during squall. We had 1-2ft of surge at high tide but nothing made it to my downstairs level. I have power and internet so all is good. A little yard cleanup but the worst winds appear to be north and east of us up in Miami and Ft Lauderdale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 Radar looks like the storm ramped up right at landfall and probably was near hurricane strength. Given the low topped storms, it’s unlikely sustained hurricane force winds occurred or mixed down effectively but it was probably close. Some gusts to near hurricane force were recorded. Key largo looks to have taken the brunt of that. Since then dry air choked off the core that had formed, a process we will likely see play out over and over again next couple days. Beyond that, guidance has definitely trended towards the storm missing the connection with the passing trough and in turn meandering and winding down harmlessly in the gulf as it feels the influence of dry continental air, shear, and decreasing SSTs. Still not certain but that’s been the trend overnight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 Some pretty decent footage from key largo last night. As I mentioned before this is evidence the system was very near a cat 1 when that core briefly wrapped up last night. Some of these winds certainly seem to be close hurricane strength. Doesn’t really matter but would’ve made for yet another hurricane landfall in the US during this crazy season. Certainly came close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted November 9, 2020 Author Share Posted November 9, 2020 This landslide in Guatemala took out an estimated 75 homes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted November 9, 2020 Author Share Posted November 9, 2020 Convection slowly increasing around the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbullsfan Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 Looks like the chances of a Tampa area landfall are fading quickly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ct_yankee Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 Seems to be regenerating its CDO at a healthy pace, it certainly looks like its strengthening. I suspect if this same exact storm were in this same exact place but being born for the first time there would be quite a bit of interest, at the very least some wild wishcasting posts. Instead, the board seems to be burnt out on ETA. I suspect a lot of people just wish it would go away at this point. I admit that right now it doesn't seem to have a very bright future, but still... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxpert55 Posted November 10, 2020 Share Posted November 10, 2020 1 hour ago, ct_yankee said: Seems to be regenerating its CDO at a healthy pace, it certainly looks like its strengthening. I suspect if this same exact storm were in this same exact place but being born for the first time there would be quite a bit of interest, at the very least some wild wishcasting posts. Instead, the board seems to be burnt out on ETA. I suspect a lot of people just wish it would go away at this point. I admit that right now it doesn't seem to have a very bright future, but still... Yes I keep checking for new posts... Hope to see some interest over the next day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted November 10, 2020 Share Posted November 10, 2020 5 hours ago, dbullsfan said: Looks like the chances of a Tampa area landfall are fading quickly. We had two squalls come through today here in Gulfport (Tampa Bay area) with decent winds (gusts in the 30s) and sideways rain. Winds were stronger yesterday (gusts in the 40s) though. I am still very interested in Eta, just one of the busiest work schedules I have had in months. Hard to enjoy a storm when you cannot watch it obsessively. UGH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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