Prospero Posted November 8, 2020 Share Posted November 8, 2020 Strange, when Eta was aiming at the Mosquito Coast, there was some high-end met discussions going on here. Now that Eta is aiming at Florida, it's pretty slow. Granted I know, big news day, but Eta is big for us in the United States dangling peninsula. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted November 8, 2020 Share Posted November 8, 2020 2 hours ago, Windspeed said: Sheared? Yes. Still, not looking too shabby for a TS at the moment. Impressive bursts of lightning over the past hour. Eta is trying to find itself a hurricane again. This has my attention this go around, as my parents literally just relocated from Charleston SC to Naples within the past 3 weeks. Curious to get everyone’s thoughts as to what, if any disruption Cuba does to this thing before it re-emerges back into the Atlantic/Gulf. Me thinks we’re in for a surprise (just gut feeling) nothing scientific or meteorologically speaking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FloridaTracker Posted November 8, 2020 Share Posted November 8, 2020 ETA is heading to an area of lower terrain in Cuba, trying to thread the needle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted November 8, 2020 Share Posted November 8, 2020 1 minute ago, FloridaTracker said: ETA is heading to an area of lower terrain in Cuba, trying to thread the needle. Of course, this is Eta. The storm that has surprised us all so late in the season. Will it miss us in Tampa Bay, then hit Cat 3 and hit LA again? That would be par for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted November 8, 2020 Share Posted November 8, 2020 Having another powerful rainband now. Highest winds yet here, 40-50 mph. Avocados began raining down right in front of me, I dashed out to get them and got 4 big avocados in just a minute! EDIT: FLL gusting to 48 mph again, just like the last band 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 8, 2020 Share Posted November 8, 2020 Eta's future continues to get more interesting. As the NHC says, models are going farther southwest after passing by Florida. The new GFS has this thing strengthening to 959 mb in the southeastern gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted November 8, 2020 Share Posted November 8, 2020 6 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said: Having another powerful rainband now. Highest winds yet here, 40-50 mph. Avocados began raining down right in front of me, I dashed out to get them and got 4 big avocados in just a minute! EDIT: FLL gusting to 48 mph again, just like the last band Guacamole central! All we have is acorns falling! Sats look solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted November 8, 2020 Share Posted November 8, 2020 1 hour ago, Prospero said: I was just outside enjoying a beer and a gust came up that almost knocked over one of our porch umbrellas that has over 100 lb of blocks on its base. That has not happened since we put it up in July with all of our strong afternoon thunderstorms that we get. And we are all the way up in the Tampa Bay area. The umbrella is now down, tied up, and put away for the next week or so. Doing more tonight that I planned on for the morning already. We have a yard of projectiles and objects that are not TS wind friendly. (My wife who was in Andrew nags at me about what "could" happen if we get a strong storm. They were not able to get out of their destroyed second floor condo due to landscaping gravel that had been picked up and piled up in front their door overnight.) The million dollar question is did you Save the beer 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted November 8, 2020 Share Posted November 8, 2020 4 minutes ago, thunderbolt said: The million dollar question is did you Save the beer I have the bruises to prove it! LOL Top of early morning hurricane shopping list: beer more beer coffee beer D batteries beer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbullsfan Posted November 8, 2020 Share Posted November 8, 2020 Quite interested in later in the week. When is the last time a TC hit the Tampa Bay Area directly from the Gulf like some models are suggesting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted November 8, 2020 Share Posted November 8, 2020 On 11/6/2020 at 1:35 PM, the ghost of leroy said: Zzzzzz Did the ghost put almost everybody to sleep yesterday about Eta? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted November 8, 2020 Share Posted November 8, 2020 8 minutes ago, dbullsfan said: Quite interested in later in the week. When is the last time a TC hit the Tampa Bay Area directly from the Gulf like some models are suggesting? It's been a while. Nestor was the biggest impact we've had since Hurricane Irma. https://beachresortcondos.com/Tropical-Storm-Nestor.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 8, 2020 Share Posted November 8, 2020 Latest GFS says Hurricane Eta meanders around the southeastern gulf for a week. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leo Posted November 8, 2020 Share Posted November 8, 2020 So it appears I picked literally the WORST week to head to Orlando ^^' I've never been in a tropical system before so a part of me is a little excited but I hope this things speeds up a bit because I maybe in the system my entire stay. What's do you all think the chances of it reintensifying into a hurricane? And any lesser known tips I should be aware of in case that happens? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyEC Posted November 8, 2020 Share Posted November 8, 2020 Josephine 1996 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted November 8, 2020 Share Posted November 8, 2020 6 minutes ago, Leo said: So it appears I picked literally the WORST week to head to Orlando ^^' I've never been in a tropical system before so a part of me is a little excited but I hope this things speeds up a bit because I maybe in the system my entire stay. What's do you all think the chances of it reintensifying into a hurricane? And any lesser known tips I should be aware of in case that happens? Maybe not the worst week. For November, you will enjoy a very warm week with tropical winds from the south. You may see some rain, but for the most part you will see a lot of sunshine. Orlando should be too far east to get the big rain, but the tropical breeze may be here all week. You'll see clouds moving quickly over and get to experience a "tropical" system. Even if Eta becomes a hurricane, it will not be a Charlie that races across the state impacting Orlando. Enjoy your visit! You may have picked the BEST week to visit central Florida. Tampa Bay, maybe not as much. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leo Posted November 8, 2020 Share Posted November 8, 2020 I appreciate your optimism. Hopefully what I'm reading in the forecast is wrong since it's looking like thunderstorms all week. I really do hope it won't be THAT rainy but I guess I'm too much of a pessimist. I will try my best to enjoy it xD A bit bummed though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted November 8, 2020 Share Posted November 8, 2020 59 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Eta's future continues to get more interesting. As the NHC says, models are going farther southwest after passing by Florida. The new GFS has this thing strengthening to 959 mb in the southeastern gulf. It's 2020. Why not a mid-Nov cane moving SW in the Gulf. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted November 8, 2020 Share Posted November 8, 2020 FLL has had peak gusts in excess of 45 MPH for 3 hours now. It's become a constant breeze and rain here, with embedded powerful bands. Another band just came through. Floodwaters are noticeably rising with each band. I imagine this is nothing compared to what it's gonna be like once Eta actually moves north of Cuba and into the Florida Straits, at that point it should get crazy with nothing between Eta's center and the Florida coast. Indeed, it is impressive we're getting such strong effects while it is still south of Cuba. Eta's convection is stronger than ever as it approaches the Cuban coastline. Upper level dynamics are really fueling its intensification and growth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted November 8, 2020 Share Posted November 8, 2020 43 minutes ago, Prospero said: Maybe not the worst week. For November, you will enjoy a very warm week with tropical winds from the south. You may see some rain, but for the most part you will see a lot of sunshine. Orlando should be too far east to get the big rain, but the tropical breeze may be here all week. You'll see clouds moving quickly over and get to experience a "tropical" system. Even if Eta becomes a hurricane, it will not be a Charlie that races across the state impacting Orlando. Enjoy your visit! You may have picked the BEST week to visit central Florida. Tampa Bay, maybe not as much. LOL Not sure I understand the rain comment. The winds are onshore from the Atlantic early this week. Local weather says 2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 8, 2020 Share Posted November 8, 2020 UK and Euro are much weaker with Eta in the gulf than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted November 8, 2020 Share Posted November 8, 2020 Constant light to moderate rain now with no breaks, with intense squall lines embedded. Looks like a couple big ones came through in the hour right before I woke up, and that's probably been happening all night. Notably, winds are persistently gusting to 40 MPH, even outside of the squall lines. I found 3 more avocados when I woke up. As for Eta, convection is dying down a bit as it crosses Cuba, but it is still looking impressive and well-structured, and probably ready to flare up as soon as it moves into the Florida Straits later this morning. I think as soon as it moves into the straits winds will get much stronger here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted November 8, 2020 Share Posted November 8, 2020 One thing that is becoming clear as the first visible images of the day come out is that this is vertically stacked, no naked swirl situation. Also, with visible it's fairly easy to see where center is, and it already looks like the center is about to emerge into the Florida Straits. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso2-02-24-1-25-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted November 8, 2020 Author Share Posted November 8, 2020 HWRF now gets Eta down to 960 mb in the EGOM. This is likely due to Eta remaining SE of strong mid level southwesterlies for a longer duration and also over the GS loop current as well. Not sure if it will make a run at Cat 3 but such modeling does hint at how Eta could become a formidable hurricane again. That being said, there isn't enough atmospheric support or OHC in the NE GOM for it to maintain such an intensity. Beyond cooler SSTs, it would eventually succumb to shear W or WNW of Tampa. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted November 8, 2020 Share Posted November 8, 2020 Not only are we in a shield of constant light to moderate rain, but the intense squalls are becoming much more frequent. We've had 3 bouts of torrential rain and tropical storm winds in the past 30 minutes or so. I think it's becoming a much stronger experience here due to Eta's center emerging into the Florida Straits, so Cuba is no longer blocking the circulation. Once Eta fully emerges into the ocean, and starts firing new hot towers and begins intensifying again, it may get much more wild here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted November 8, 2020 Share Posted November 8, 2020 Boca Raton here, just clocked in 2 inches of rain since midnight on my backyard weather station. Recorded wind isn't that impressive but that's because my weather station is about 12 feet off the ground with taller hedges surrounding my backyard. Max wind gust recorded was 21.7 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted November 8, 2020 Share Posted November 8, 2020 This latest intense squall is so strong it's showing up on satellite, and we definitely just had some new peak gusts of 50-60 mph. 5 avocados came down all at once, now up to 12 avocados from this hurricane. Confirmed: An accurate weather station near me on the coast recorded 60 MPH https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=AU497&unit=0&timetype=LOCAL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted November 8, 2020 Share Posted November 8, 2020 New hot tower going up as Eta emerges into the Florida Straits. Here we go! https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso2-14-48-1-10-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted November 8, 2020 Share Posted November 8, 2020 Recon just arrived into the storm, hopefully they stick around for a while so we can see the rate of intensification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
finatic jason Posted November 8, 2020 Share Posted November 8, 2020 Had a couple really decent squalls up here in Jupiter around daybreak. Woke the whole house up(of course we have family here visiting from out of town this weekend). I'm sure we are gusting to 40 as I type this. We are surrounded by pines and they are whistling this morning. Put away the pool and patio stuff. The stuff in lanai staying out for now. The genny is ready to rock if we needed it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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