Tropical Storm Eta

[jbenedet]

1 hour ago, Windspeed said:

HWRF now gets Eta down to 960 mb in the EGOM. This is likely due to Eta remaining SE of strong mid level southwesterlies for a longer duration and also over the GS loop current as well. Not sure if it will make a run at Cat 3 but such modeling does hint at how Eta could become a formidable hurricane again. That being said, there isn't enough atmospheric support or OHC in the NE GOM for it to maintain such an intensity. Beyond cooler SSTs, it would eventually succumb to shear W or WNW of Tampa.

The 6z GFS is much more in alignment with this evolution...

Overall given the Synoptics and climo this recurve into northwest Fla makes much sense than the euro which has been wanting to bury Eta in the south central Gulf. The mid latitude westerleys are regularly in the northern tropics this time of year. I find it dubious that the front around day 4 will completely miss Eta.

[bigtenfan]

I have a flight out of FLL tomorrow at 10.45am

What are my chances?

[Akeem the African Dream]

decent storm so far.  been over 40mph gusts for a few hours now 

the water is really piling up.  This afternoons high tide will probably put some of the roads in my neighborhood under water.  

good thing I have flood insurance 

[BlizzardNole]

29 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said:

This latest intense squall is so strong it's showing up on satellite, and we definitely just had some new peak gusts of 50-60 mph. 5 avocados came down all at once, now up to 12 avocados from this hurricane. 

Confirmed: An accurate weather station near me on the coast recorded 60 MPH https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=AU497&unit=0&timetype=LOCAL

Thanks for these updates.  You're gonna be making a lot of guacamole ha.

We've got relatives on the other side in Marco. 

[Modfan2]

7 minutes ago, Akeem the African Dream said:

decent storm so far.  been over 40mph gusts for a few hours now 

the water is really piling up.  This afternoons high tide will probably put some of the roads in my neighborhood under water.  

good thing I have flood insurance 

Just west of you by the locks on the waterway and been gusty but we have missed a bulk of the rain so far

[cptcatz]

70 kt wind just measured at flight level east of the eye

[dan11295]

URNT15 KWBC 081419
NOAA2 1329A ETA HDOB 11 20201108
141000 2252N 07848W 8430 01466 9968 +183 +164 134027 029 039 000 00
141030 2251N 07846W 8430 01464 9966 +184 +164 140028 029 040 000 00
141100 2251N 07845W 8428 01466 9960 +194 +161 142033 034 039 000 00
141130 2250N 07843W 8430 01462 9958 +196 +159 146033 035 040 000 00
141200 2250N 07841W 8431 01460 9958 +193 +167 144035 036 044 000 00
141230 2249N 07839W 8431 01458 9959 +188 +170 151034 036 045 000 00
141300 2249N 07838W 8431 01460 9962 +185 +171 159038 039 047 000 00
141330 2248N 07836W 8432 01462 9964 +186 +169 169038 039 047 000 00
141400 2247N 07834W 8428 01471 9969 +185 +167 169040 040 048 000 00
141430 2247N 07832W 8428 01474 9971 +187 +168 170040 041 049 000 00
141500 2246N 07830W 8426 01477 9978 +178 +168 173041 042 049 000 00
141530 2246N 07828W 8432 01470 9983 +170 //// 178046 048 052 001 01
141600 2245N 07827W 8424 01479 9985 +170 //// 181047 049 052 001 01
141630 2245N 07825W 8431 01481 9988 +171 //// 184047 049 053 001 01
141700 2244N 07823W 8416 01495 9992 +169 //// 182052 054 054 002 01
141730 2243N 07821W 8417 01494 9995 +163 //// 182056 061 055 009 01
141800 2243N 07819W 8429 01485 0004 +151 //// 180066 069 057 008 01
141830 2242N 07818W 8417 01499 0008 +153 //// 180063 064 059 003 01
141900 2242N 07816W 8418 01500 0010 +162 //// 178065 070 057 003 01
141930 2241N 07814W 8432 01495 0012 +167 +161 188066 070 057 004 00

996 mb extrap 70 kt fl 59 kt SFMR. Weird because NHC had it at 50 kt before crossing Cuba. Also looks like 12z model output came N some.

[cptcatz]

I think we can officially say Cuba has INTENSIFIED every storm that crossed it in 2020. What a year!

[turtlehurricane]

It's impressive that this is bordering on hurricane intensity, if not already a hurricane if we had better sampling of the storm's wind field, and it still has the entire Florida Straits to cross. 

Convection continuing to deepen and expand near the center, it happened extremely fast, like the moment it moved back over the ocean, thanks to the powerful upper level support and the steaming hot waters. 

[dan11295]

Keys could get a landfalling hurricane here..lol

Would think they have to issue a Hurricane warning for the Keys with those obs.

Also if Eta recurves back into FL will it just a TS falling apart? This is November...

[turtlehurricane]

Fort Lauderdale International Airport (FLL) has been closed due to flooding.

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 AM EST THIS MORNING
FOR BROWARD, NORTHERN MIAMI-DADE AND SOUTHEASTERN PALM BEACH
COUNTIES...

At 938 AM EST, Doppler radar indicated an area of very heavy
rainfall across the warned area. Between 1 and 3 inches of rain have
fallen.

Fort Lauderdale International Airport has reports of flooding along
Perimeter Road near the Cell Phone Waiting area and is now closed
due to standing water/flooding.

Also short term forecast is juicy.

At 929 AM EST, Doppler radar indicated showers over the Atlantic
waters, moving west at 45 mph.

Through the next few hours, this activity will continue affecting
portions of eastern Inland Broward County, Coastal Broward County,
Metro Broward County, Metropolitan Miami Dade, northeastern Inland
Miami-Dade County and northeastern Coastal Miami Dade County. Very
strong to at times damaging wind gusts, funnel clouds, and locally
heavy rainfall, along with reduced visibilities, may accompany this
activity. The potential for 45 to 60 mph wind gusts with the
stronger showers is likely and impactful flooding is also likely if
the heavier showers were to repeatedly move over the same locations.

[NorthHillsWx]

Now forecast to become a hurricane. Certainly seems reasonable. I am skeptical of the deepening shown on some of the models given the proximity to extremely high shear and dry air. It would really have to thread the needle 

[NorthHillsWx]

53 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said:

It's impressive that this is bordering on hurricane intensity, if not already a hurricane if we had better sampling of the storm's wind field, and it still has the entire Florida Straits to cross. 

Convection continuing to deepen and expand near the center, it happened extremely fast, like the moment it moved back over the ocean, thanks to the powerful upper level support and the steaming hot waters. 

Resilient system aided by upper level divergence. Not bad for having dealt with 30kt of shear and having just crossed Cuba’s midsection. It seems reasonably vertically stacked. Might be extending our high number of US hurricane landfalls on the year 

[FloridaTracker]

Eye closed

[Windspeed]

Fairly impressive structure to have crossed Cuba. It did seem to straddle between the higher terrain but the western semicircle of the low level vortex did cross over mountains. Still, the core looks intact. We'll see how this translates to strengthening today. There is still moderate shear.

[the ghost of leroy]

2 hours ago, turtlehurricane said:

This latest intense squall is so strong it's showing up on satellite, and we definitely just had some new peak gusts of 50-60 mph. 5 avocados came down all at once, now up to 12 avocados from this hurricane. 

Confirmed: An accurate weather station near me on the coast recorded 60 MPH https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=AU497&unit=0&timetype=LOCAL

Holy guacamole 

[turtlehurricane]

It in-fact got MUCH better organized over Cuba, and that organization trend has accelerated as it's moved into the Florida Straits. This is a major development. The inner core does not look sheared at all, and shear is projected to decrease from here. Significant potential for strengthening to 100 mph in my opinion.

[cptcatz]

Just took some video from my backyard in Boca Raton

 

[turtlehurricane]

Another very intense band just moved in. Wind is really starting to get powerful, to the point that it's roaring. Power was making weird noises as the strong winds hit, not sure how much longer it can hold out. According to FPL roughly 10,000 people have lost power in Southeast Florida, a number which is quickly rising. https://www.fplmaps.com

EDIT coastal site in Fort Lauderdale gusted to 52 MPH on that one. I bet if there was a station down on the coast in Hallendale/Hollywood it would've recorded 60+ MPH

EDIT 2: Hollywood North Perry Airport, a station well inland, gusted to 53 MPH from that squall. Confirms that winds were over 60 MPH on the beach. 

[Akeem the African Dream]

getting some gusts upwards of 50mph with each onshore moving squall now 

[FLweather]

Had some rain bands come through early this morning roughly 4 am.

Other wise cloudy.  Very thick deck of high level clouds, patchy cumulus clouds.  

Very impressive wind field with this storm.

Not sure exactly but pretty steady breeze of 20-30 mph here in Apopka Nw of Orlando. 

[turtlehurricane]

Eye is starting to clear out on visible. Although deep convection is not that impressive, it is apparent that Eta is continuing to organize and strengthen. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso2-02-200-1-10-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Upper level dynamics are creating a perfect storm sort've scenario with this one. 

[FLweather]

4 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said:

Eye is starting to clear out on visible. Although deep convection is not that impressive, it is apparent that Eta is continuing to organize and strengthen. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso2-02-200-1-10-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Upper level dynamics are creating a perfect storm sort've scenario with this one. 

Yeah the models have definitely not handled this storm too well strength wise.

Not really looking at globals.  But if Hwrf is sniffing something out track wise. Then SSTs are very favorable for further strengthening. 

May be a major hurricane again once and if it makes another land fall near or north of Tampa Bay.

[Akeem the African Dream]

My massive mangrove row has been uprooted and fell on my home taking out my satellite dish 

[FloridaTracker]

With the lack of convection, is ETA showing more subtropical characteristics?

[turtlehurricane]

24 minutes ago, Akeem the African Dream said:

My massive mangrove row has been uprooted and fell on my home taking out my satellite dish 

Wow! How high was the wind you think?

Inner rain bands starting to move onshore in Broward and Dade, tons of embedded squalls with not much breaks between them. 

Also, the eye has finally appeared on Miami radar

[FLweather]

11 minutes ago, FloridaTracker said:

With the lack of convection, is ETA showing more subtropical characteristics?

Wouldn't really say subtropical just yet.

A whole lot of dry air to the south, sw, se. But it maybe transitioning 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=29L&product=wv-mid

[turtlehurricane]

Just now, FLweather said:

Wouldn't really say subtropical just yet.

A whole lot of dry air to the south, sw, se.https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=29L&product=wv-mid

Actually, I think it is a classic case of a sub-tropical hurricane at this point. That's why the impacts are happening at such a large radius, and why it's intensifying without much central convection.

[Modfan2]

11 minutes ago, FloridaTracker said:

With the lack of convection, is ETA showing more subtropical characteristics?

Looks like a bit of lightning on the East side

[Akeem the African Dream]

23 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said:

Wow! How high was the wind you think?

Inner rain bands starting to move onshore in Broward and Dade, tons of embedded squalls with not much breaks between them. 

Also, the eye has finally appeared on Miami radar

a weather net station captured a 60mph gust around noon close to my location