Tropical Storm Eta

[yoda]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eta Advisory Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL292020
300 PM CST Fri Nov 06 2020

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THE CENTER OF
ETA FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 86.5W
ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM WSW OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the
provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa
Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cayman Islands
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus,
Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa y Mayabeque, Pinar del
Rio, and the Isle of Youth.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

The governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue warnings
for heavy rain and flooding in those countries, and interests in
those areas should continue to monitor the depression.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, the Florida
Keys, and southern Florida should monitor the progress of this
system as Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches could be required for
some of these areas tonight or on Saturday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

[yoda]

Tropical Depression Eta Discussion Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL292020
300 PM CST Fri Nov 06 2020

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft 
indicate that the center of Eta is elongated east-to-west with 
multiple vorticity centers present.  The central pressure is near 
1002 mb, and the maximum flight-level winds were 30-35 kt at 1500 
ft.  There were a few spot reports of 35-45 kt winds from the 
Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer, but these were in areas of 
heavy rain and their reliability is suspect.  Based on these data, 
the initial intensity is kept at 30 kt.

The aircraft data shows that the center is farther south than 
previously thought, and the initial motion is an uncertain 040/6 kt. 
There is no change to the previous track forecast philosophy.  A 
developing mid- to upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico is 
expected to steer Eta northeastward for the next 48 h or so with an 
increase in forward speed.  Between 48-72 h, the trough is forecast 
to become a closed low near south Florida and western Cuba, causing 
Eta to turn northwestward around and into the low.  After 72 h, the 
merged system is likely to move slowly westward to northwestward.  
While the guidance is in good agreement on the synoptic evolution, 
there remain differences in the track forecast details in terms of 
both the heading and the forward speed, with the GFS-based guidance 
tending to be to the east and north of the UKMET/ECMWF/Canadian.  In 
addition, the HWRF/HMON/Canadian are faster than the other guidance. 
The new forecast track overall is a little slower than the previous 
track, and due to the initial position the first 36 h have been 
shifted southward.

Eta will move over the warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean 
during the next 48 h or so, and the upper-level divergence is 
forecast to be quite strong.  This should allow some strengthening, 
although this is likely to be slowed by 20-30 kt of southwesterly 
vertical wind shear.  The intensity forecast for this part of the 
cyclone's life is again similar to the previous forecast and lies 
near the bulk of the intensity guidance.  Between 48-72 h , Eta may 
take on at least some subtropical cyclone characteristics as it 
merges with the mid- to upper-level low.  The HWRF and HMON models 
still suggest the possibility that a tight inner wind core may 
develop, however, the guidance has trended weaker since this 
morning, and the new intensity forecast is above the bulk of the 
guidance.  After 72 h, dry air entrainment is expected to cause the 
cyclone to weaken.

The wind field of Eta is expected to increase in size during the
next few days, and the cyclone will likely produce a large area of
tropical-storm-force winds on its north side when it is near Cuba,
the Florida Keys, and southern Florida.

The new forecast track requires a Tropical Storm Warning for 
portions of Cuba at this time.  Watches may be required for 
portions of south Florida and the Florida Keys tonight.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall is diminishing across portions of Central America, 
although the threat of life-threatening flooding may continue, along 
with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Heavy rainfall from Eta 
will move into the Cayman islands and portions of Cuba, resulting in 
significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding. 
Flash flooding and urban flooding is also possible for Jamaica and 
southeast Mexico.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected this weekend in portions 
of the Cayman Islands and Cuba, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in 
effect.

3. There is an increasing risk of impacts from wind and flash and 
urban flooding due to heavy rainfall in portions of southern 
Florida, the Florida Keys, and portions of the Bahamas this weekend 
and early next week. Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches will likely 
be issued for a portion of this area tonight. 


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/2100Z 17.3N  86.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  07/0600Z 18.2N  84.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  07/1800Z 19.4N  82.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  08/0600Z 20.8N  80.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  08/1800Z 22.5N  80.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 60H  09/0600Z 24.2N  80.6W   55 KT  65 MPH...OVER WATER
 72H  09/1800Z 24.9N  81.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  10/1800Z 25.0N  84.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  11/1800Z 26.5N  85.5W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

[yoda]

New track is south of mainland FL and barely gets into the Keys

[Modfan2]

16 minutes ago, yoda said:

New track is south of mainland FL and barely gets into the Keys

Still think it will be further NE of this; closer to Homestead 

[BombsAway1288]

21 hours ago, Prospero said:

Models are beginning to tighten up. Exciting, yet not great news for Florida. Models have been better this year than any year I remember.

My position for our home and Tampa Bay area is always, "Be as strong as possible without power going out, loss of life, and unreasonable cleanup expense."

Huh? Sorry, but that is not right, unless you're referring to the short range hurricane models, the rest of the models have been atrocious this year in the medium-long range, at least earlier in the season.

There was multiple occasions when both the GFS and Euro had hurricane's or TD's just dissipating as they reached the coast. Been an awful year for the globals.

[cptcatz]

Convection is blowing up this morning but it may be offset from the center. Recon should be in the storm soon so it'll be interesting to see what they find. 

[jbenedet]

Biggest risk for South Florida and the Keys  is if the forecasted stall/meander occurs more closely to south Florida than is currently projected by NHC. A stall near the keys, or just off shore south Florida would greatly increase chance of very significant flooding. GFS has been hinting at this risk for several runs now.

Tangent point but track uncertainty likely very high with this at short lead times given interaction with Cuba (and its high peaks), and then weak steering flow upon closest approach to Florida. 

 

[Windspeed]

Starting to get some mid-level core alignment under nice convection. Perhaps even an LLC reformation has occurred. Might have downplayed potential impacts in Cuba too swiftly.

[Bhs1975]

Starting to get some mid-level core alignment under nice convection. Perhaps even an LLC reformation has occurred. Might have downplayed potential impacts in Cuba too swiftly.

Yeah the ssts are still very warm.

[cptcatz]

Recon finding a stronger storm than we thought...

[Windspeed]

Definite improvement this morning.

[Windspeed]

Upper level reconnaissance mission did find pretty significant westerly mid level shear. Not unexpected. It should be enough to prevent rapid intensification from occurring in Eta. But with strong divergence aloft, there could be enough atmospheric support to allow continued slow strengthening through Cuban landfall.

[hawkeye_wx]

Pressure is 994 mb.

[Windspeed]

Eta still has a sheared assymetric presentation on radar.

[cptcatz]

Anyone know when the next recon is scheduled?

[TPAwx]

[cptcatz]

So the 18z GFS is coming in... brings Eta into the Gulf, intensifies, stalls, then moves south, eventually making landfall in where else but...... the Yucatan.

[hawkeye_wx]

3 hours ago, cptcatz said:

Anyone know when the next recon is scheduled?

A plane is flying into the storm now.

[hawkeye_wx]

Pressure is down to 991 mb.

[Prospero]

1 hour ago, cptcatz said:

So the 18z GFS is coming in... brings Eta into the Gulf, intensifies, stalls, then moves south, eventually making landfall in where else but...... the Yucatan.

Storm roulette!

"Spin the wheel, where she stops, nobody knows!"

 

 

[NorthHillsWx]

6 minutes ago, Prospero said:

Storm roulette!

"Spin the wheel, where she stops, nobody knows!"

 

 

For real

[Prospero]

Entire season that started early, obsessed with every storm (as usual), and having taken some steps to prepare for storms I cannot now remember in 2020, we are looking at rain and winds to maybe start tomorrow. Prepared? Hardly. I am deep in a huge tight deadline project where I am learning a new programming language as I go. Perfect. UGH

In the past 18 years in Florida I remember hurricane's Charlie, Frances, Jeane, Hermine, and of course the doozy Irma.

Tropical storms too many to count, but Debbie brought the highest storm surge and over 16 inches of rain that was a disaster in itself.

Eta spinning off our coast for a couple days can outdo Debbie, and if it does become a hurricane most of us around here are totally not prepared.

Wish I was not so busy making a living this week!

[turtlehurricane]

It was Shabbos, so I was not able to see any of the updates until now.

The day started with underwhelming weather. NWS said flooding should've began last night, but instead when I awoke it was just cloudy with intermittent wind gusts. Then in the late morning we had 1 passing heavy downpour, and then another heavy downpour around 1 PM.

I was beginning to question if anything was really gonna happen, since so many times this season storms have missed here. 

However, around 4 PM it began to pour, and the rain didn't stop for hours. The winds were some of the strongest we've seen this year as well, easily gusting over 40 MPH.

Once I turned the computer on I see we are under a Tropical Storm Warning, with tropical storm conditions possible even tonight in rainbands, and indeed earlier we already has some Tropical Storm-esque conditions. 

It seems this is a huge storm, and it's already begun, so tons of flooding and wind is coming. Most interesting wild card is it will be over the Florida Straits for about 24 hours, and it's already approaching hurricane strength, so we could easily see some RI especially since a ridge will be building in, which is a highly favorable setup. 

NHC has appropriately issued a Hurricane Watch, since this could surprise everyone and go up to Cat 2-3. 

[Windspeed]

Sheared? Yes. Still, not looking too shabby for a TS at the moment. Impressive bursts of lightning over the past hour. Eta is trying to find itself a hurricane again.

[Prospero]

1 minute ago, turtlehurricane said:

It was Shabbos, so I was not able to see any of the updates until now.

The day started with underwhelming weather. NWS said flooding should've began last night, but instead when I awoke it was just cloudy with intermittent wind gusts. Then in the late morning we had 1 passing heavy downpour, and then another heavy downpour around 1 PM.

I was beginning to question if anything was really gonna happen, since so many times this season storms have missed here. 

However, around 4 PM it began to pour, and the rain didn't stop for hours. The winds were some of the strongest we've seen this year as well, easily gusting over 40 MPH.

Once I turned the computer on I see we are under a Tropical Storm Warning, with tropical storm conditions possible even tonight in rainbands, and indeed earlier we already has some Tropical Storm-esque conditions. 

It seems this is a huge storm, and it's already begun, so tons of flooding and wind is coming. Most interesting wild card is it will be over the Florida Straits for about 24 hours, and it's already approaching hurricane strength, so we could easily see some RI especially since a ridge will be building in, which is a highly favorable setup. 

NHC has appropriately issued a Hurricane Watch, since this could surprise everyone and go up to Cat 2-3. 

I'm already looking at the SailFlow maps. Been breezy here all day in Gulfport, Florida. If this develops at all in the Gulf we might be hanging onto our hats, and scrambling to secure our homes.

One thing with this pass of Eta, we have good radar, hundreds of personal weather stations, and a ton of live web cams.

[Prospero]

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM EST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 80.2 West. Eta has
recently jogged toward the east, but is expected to resume a motion
toward the northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h) tonight.  A turn toward
the north and northwest at a slower forward speed is expected on
Sunday and Sunday night, followed by a westward motion on Monday. On
the forecast track, the center of Eta will cross central Cuba
tonight, approach south Florida and the Florida Keys on Sunday, pass
near or over south Florida and the Florida Keys Sunday night and
Monday and be over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible through Sunday
night, and Eta could be near hurricane strength as it approaches
Florida.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.26 inches)
based on NOAA dropsonde data.

OK, here we go.

[turtlehurricane]

Just went outside and it is ominous. Lots of wind, and Mesowest showing wind gusts exceeding 30 mph here on the coastline. 

Radar shows a strong rainband is moving in. It's already flooded out there, the street I live on is literally a river at this point, since the grounds were saturated from lots of rain this past month, and we had alot of rain earlier today.

The flooding threat here in Southeast Florida is extreme. NHC forecasting 10-15 inches, which would be totally insane on top of the already saturated grounds. 

Meanwhile Eta looking impressive as it approaches landfall in Cuba. There is a tremendous amount of upper level divergence that is fueling Eta. It's concerning what could happen once this gets over the Gulf Stream considering the upper level support. May not be a classic looking hurricane, but could end up with a 100 mph sub-tropical 'perfect storm'. 

[Prospero]

2 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said:

Just went outside and it is ominous. Lots of wind, and Mesowest showing wind gusts exceeding 30 mph here on the coastline. 

Radar shows a strong rainband is moving in. It's already flooded out there, the street I live on is literally a river at this point, since the grounds were saturated from lots of rain this past month, and we had alot of rain earlier today.

The flooding threat here in Southeast Florida is extreme. NHC forecasting 10-15 inches, which would be totally insane on top of the already saturated grounds. 

Meanwhile Eta looking impressive as it approaches landfall in Cuba. There is a tremendous amount of upper level divergence that is fueling Eta. It's concerning what could happen once this gets over the Gulf Stream considering the upper level support. May not be a classic looking hurricane, but could end up with a 100 mph sub-tropical 'perfect storm'. 

We are planning a shopping list for Thanksgiving and adding in late season hurricane supplies, like D batteries and filling up the gas tanks.
Wind chimes, bird feeders, potted plants, yard decorations are being secured early tomorrow. Hope I am not out in the rain doing it!

[turtlehurricane]

This rainband we just had easily had tropical storm conditions, torrential rain and lots of wind. 

In-fact, it is confirmed. KFLL gusted to 48 mph and a site on the coast gusted to 49 mph. 

Crazy were already getting tropical storm conditions, and it's gonna be deteriorating all the way through Monday morning.

[Prospero]

1 minute ago, turtlehurricane said:

This rainband we just had easily had tropical storm conditions, torrential rain and lots of wind. 

In-fact, it is confirmed. KFLL gusted to 48 mph and a site on the coast gusted to 49 mph. 

Crazy were already getting tropical storm conditions, and it's gonna be deteriorating all the way through Monday morning.

I was just outside enjoying a beer and a gust came up that almost knocked over one of our porch umbrellas that has over 100 lb of blocks on its base. That has not happened since we put it up in July with all of our strong afternoon thunderstorms that we get. And we are all the way up in the Tampa Bay area.

The umbrella is now down, tied up, and put away for the next week or so. Doing more tonight that I planned on for the morning already. We have a yard of projectiles and objects that are not TS wind friendly. (My wife who was in Andrew nags at me about what "could" happen if we get a strong storm. They were not able to get out of their destroyed second floor condo due to landscaping gravel that had been picked up and piled up in front their door overnight.)