Tropical Storm Eta

[JasonOH]

1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

For the convo about best looking storms we forgot a relevant one in this region: Mitch at peak 

This will have similar effects too: tons of rainfall causing catastrophic flooding.

[NorthHillsWx]

1 minute ago, JasonOH said:

This will have similar effects too: tons of rainfall causing catastrophic flooding.

Probably closest analog, just a little more north. 

[sojitodd]

2 minutes ago, JasonOH said:

This will have similar effects too: tons of rainfall causing catastrophic flooding.

This is what I am dreading. Don't forget the landslides. 

[jojo762]

SE/NW pass coming soon. 

[Radtechwxman]

Goes to show you that satellite estimates have errors and you just can't beat actual aircraft data. This likely was overestimated earlier with strength and just now is hitting that level

[Moderately Unstable]

Just gonna post up the discussion:

 

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Eta Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL292020
1000 PM EST Mon Nov 02 2020

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft has found that Eta has 
explosively deepened into a strong category 4 hurricane with maximum 
sustained winds of 130 kt and a minimum central pressure of 927 mb. 
Eta has maintained a small 10-nmi-wide eye that is evident in 
satellite imagery and on the San Andreas, Colombia, weather radar. 
The radar data also suggest that concentric eyewalls may be forming, 
which would be an indication of the onset of an eyewall replacement 
cycle (ERC) and a capping of Eta's intensity and also an end to the 
rapid intensification cycle of the past 36 hours. The initial 
intensity of 130 kt kt is based on 700-mb flight-level winds of 137 
kt and SFMR surface winds of 130 kt. Some additional strengthening 
is expected, and Eta could become a category 5 hurricane before 
landfall occurs. After landfall, Eta should quickly weaken while it 
moves over the mountainous terrain of Central America.

Eta has slowed and is now moving southwestward or 245/06 kt. There 
is no significant change to previous track forecast reasoning. A 
mid-level ridge over the south-central United States should steer 
Eta west-southwestward toward the coast of Nicaragua with the 
hurricane making landfall early Tuesday.  After landfall, Eta should 
turn westward and then west-northwestward, and move across Central 
America through Thursday. Eta's low-level circulation may not 
survive its passage over the mountainous terrain of Central America, 
but most of the global models continue to depict a cyclone or its 
remnants moving over the northwestern Caribbean Sea by late-week and 
into the weekend. Therefore, the new NHC track forecast continues to 
show the system emerging over the northwestern Caribbean late in the 
period, although this portion of the track forecast remains 
uncertain.

Since Eta is likely to be a very slow-moving system after it makes
landfall in Central America, torrential rains and flooding will be
a major threat.

Key Messages:

1. Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Eta's eyewall moves
onshore along the northeastern coast of Nicaragua tonight or early
Tuesday.  Tropical storm force winds are beginning to reach the
coast within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua, and residents
there should have completed their preparations.  A Tropical Storm
Warning is also in effect for the northeastern coast of Honduras.

2. A catastrophic and life-threatening storm surge, along with
destructive waves, are expected along portions of the northeastern
coast of Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes
landfall.  Water levels could reach as high as 14 to 21 feet above
normal tide levels in some parts of the hurricane warning area.
Preparations to protect life and property should now be complete.

3. Through Friday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta will likely
lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river
flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides
in areas of higher terrain.  Flash and river flooding is also
possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern
Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0300Z 14.1N  82.7W  130 KT 150 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 13.9N  83.3W  140 KT 160 MPH
 24H  04/0000Z 13.9N  84.0W   90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
 36H  04/1200Z 13.9N  85.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 48H  05/0000Z 14.3N  86.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 60H  05/1200Z 14.8N  87.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  06/0000Z 15.4N  88.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  07/0000Z 16.8N  87.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  08/0000Z 17.9N  85.3W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

NNNN

 

 

[MUWX]

NHC now forecasting this to become a 5 by tomorrow morning 

[NorthHillsWx]

I’m just going to say it... the board jinxed eta

[OhioWX]

I'm not convinced Eta is done rapidly intensifying. I guess we'll see what this next pass shows.

[Radtechwxman]

Lol the thread quieted down quick after hurricane hunters revealed it wasn't Wilma part 2. This still is incredible and something to marvel at

[cptcatz]

And here we go again...

120H  08/0000Z 17.9N  85.3W   40 KT  45 MPH

[Moderately Unstable]

That pressure looked a bit lower. 

[WeatherQ]

18 minutes ago, Moderately Unstable said:

Welp. They went 150mph and 927mb. They do call for it to become a cat 5 before landfall. 

I still won. 931 mb 150 mph, NHC verified. ;-)

[JasonOH]

127kt FL with 135kt unflagged SFMR (Press x to doubt).  925.3mb extrap on the last ob.

[Windspeed]

Nice hurricane symbol pattern in the -80 to -90C° cloud tops. Also the eye is very symmetrical at the moment.

[Moderately Unstable]

 

1 minute ago, WeatherQ said:

I still won. 931 mb 150 mph, NHC verified. ;-)

Lol. Bro, I haven't looked at the original forecasts yet at all--I'm not saying I expect a cat 5 because of MY forecast, I'm saying it because THE NHC said it would. I don't care whether I win, good work, excellent job. But I haven't looked through yet to verify everything. Busy looking at the data. 

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

I thought IRMA was very picturesque

[WeatherQ]

3 minutes ago, Moderately Unstable said:

 

Lol. Bro, I haven't looked at the original forecasts yet at all--I'm not saying I expect a cat 5 because of MY forecast, I'm saying it because THE NHC said it would. I don't care whether I win, good work, excellent job. But I haven't looked through yet to verify everything. Busy looking at the data. 

Just having some fun MU! Appreciate your insights 

[cptcatz]

4 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I thought IRMA was very picturesque

Irma was definitely the most picturesque in recent years.  The size, symmetry, and lack of all the other crud that Eta has around it, made it look perfect.

[Morris]

922mb now. 

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

Down to 922

[Moderately Unstable]

Hm. So lowest extrap there was 922.1 and they made a loop followed by a 90 degree right turn to sample that side. Does look like a possible second eyewall from the data. 

[Windspeed]

If the VDM verifies the 922 mb, that's a 5 mb drop in 1 hour. This is still rapidly deepening. Bit of a chase to see how long the eyewall can continue this pace until the outer band takes over. This probably does reach Cat 5 tonight.

 

 

[OhioWX]

This most recent pass confirms rapid intensification is still occurring. If current recon doesn't confirm a category 5 by the time it departs, the next one, which is currently en route, should.

[WhirlingWx]

I've seen a few people mention that Gilbert and Wilma were at peak intensity even with an extra outer eyewall(?) By that, do y'all mean like at a similar stage as to where Eta currently is (or earlier, or later in the EWRC)? Not that I anticipate a pressure that low, just relative to the life cycle of this storm.

[Radtechwxman]

[SnowLover22]

2 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

If the VDM verifies the 922 mb, that's a 5 mb drop in 1 hour. This is still rapidly deepening. Bit of a chase to see how long the eyewall can continue this pace until the outer band takes over. This probably does reach Cat 5 tonight.

 

 

is an eyewall merger out of the question. Maybe the concentric band just merges with the inner eyewall and does not take over?

[Moderately Unstable]

4 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said:

is an eyewall merger out of the question. Maybe the concentric band just merges with the inner eyewall and does not take over?

Yes, it is out of the question.  ERCs occur when a ring of very strong thunderstorms encircles a pinwheel eye. This new ring contracts and as it does so it robs--literally takes--the angular momentum from the inner eye and expands it out. Angular momentum is conserved, but a larger radius of winds lowers the wind speed and raises the pressure. After the cycle completes, the new eyewall can contract and potentially re-strengthen. It takes several hours to occur, and is first visible on radar (ground or plane--the plane has radar which is how they characterize a "closed" versus "open" eye), so if there's one in progress you'll see it there before you see it on satellite. 

[Amped]

3 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said:

is an eyewall merger out of the question. Maybe the concentric band just merges with the inner eyewall and does not take over?

Not enough time for an eyewall merger.  The inner eyewall is probably still deepening though.   

[Floydbuster]