DDweatherman Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 1 minute ago, the ghost of leroy said: call me a traditionalist but gilbert and allen kinda slay what comes after...just based on looks... Just edited my post to add Gilbert right before you posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justanotheruser Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 HOW DO YOU MISS 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 Just now, the ghost of leroy said: call me a traditionalist but gilbert and allen kinda slay what comes after...just based on looks... Gilbert at peak. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 Just now, justanotheruser said: HOW DO YOU MISS Plane must be dealing with radar attenuation 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 1 minute ago, cptcatz said: Well Euro has this getting to 933 mb in ten days from now in the middle of the Caribbean, so maybe what we're seeing tonight wont be the peak of Eta... (cue weenie likes) well we're going to have to see what emerges if/when it gets back over water. it's not a huge storm and its core is going to be dragging its nuts over some pretty mountainous areas in Honduras for a good chunk of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 Just now, justanotheruser said: HOW DO YOU MISS im not sure they missed...they have their own radar and that image is subject to parallax 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 Ugh! They didn't even hit the eye with a dropsonde. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 It feels like the entire site is on this thread. 116 members are currently viewing this. How many guests? 1000? I sure am glad to have something else to focus on right now to, ya know, what's going on right now. Theteam reported a north eyewall minimum pressure of 929mb. This likely means the central pressure is 923-925mb. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, justanotheruser said: HOW DO YOU MISS They didn't miss. You can't use satellite to estimate position of their aircraft because of parallax. Radar is most accurate to see this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 Just now, Moderately Unstable said: It feels like the entire site is on this thread. 116 members are currently viewing this. How many guests? 1000? I sure am glad to have something else to focus on right now to, ya know, what's going on right now. The north eyewall reported a minimum pressure of 929mb. This likely means the central pressure is 923-925mb. That north eyewall didn't have a surface report though. We only know the last report was at 929mb before it cut out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 Wait, 929 mb at 75 kt??? Something smells fishy here. Methinks they didn't hit the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 Correction. 928mb. Vortex Data Message: 691 URNT12 KNHC 030242 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL292020 A. 03/02:16:00Z B. 14.10 deg N 082.55 deg W C. 700 mb 2469 m D. 928 mb E. 090 deg 17 kt F. CLOSED G. C6 H. 124 kt I. 346 deg 3 nm 02:15:00Z J. 076 deg 123 kt K. 352 deg 5 nm 02:14:30Z L. 130 kt M. 190 deg 4 nm 02:17:30Z N. 280 deg 137 kt O. 193 deg 5 nm 02:18:00Z P. 10 C / 3051 m Q. 21 C / 2995 m R. -4 C / NA S. 12345 / 07 T. 0.02 / 0.5 nm U. AF304 0429A ETA OB 07 MAX FL WIND 137 KT 193 / 5 NM 02:18:00Z ; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 Just now, JasonOH said: That north eyewall didn't have a surface report though. We only know the last report was at 929mb before it cut out. Ahhh, got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sojitodd Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 Just now, Moderately Unstable said: It feels like the entire site is on this thread. 116 members are currently viewing this. How many guests? 1000? I sure am glad to have something else to focus on right now to, ya know, what's going on right now. The north eyewall reported a minimum pressure of 929mb. This likely means the central pressure is 923-925mb. Quote I sure am glad to have something else to focus on right now to, ya know, what's going on right now. Yes this! I need to go to bed but I want to watch this thing...who would have thought in November... Hello! to all the guests! I stick with 914 and 150 peak(yet to come). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 Eye sonde 928 mb at 17 kts. So ~925-927 sounds about right. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 I’m gonna bet NHC goes 155 or maybe 160 anyway this advisory. She’s gonna go a little lower and respond wind wise in the next few hrs I’d expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 I'd put it at a low cat 5. I think if they don't go cat 5, they'll probably say, they expect it to become a cat 5. Then again I also said 917 and revised to 912 and 150kts, so I'm not trustworthy right now. Oof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 Ok, they snuck an additional dropsonde report in between the eyewall sondes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 She's not gonna get much lower and faster when the core looks like this lol. I'm not sure whether or not this peaked a few hours ago though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 Crap...I thought the contest was min pressure/max wind before LF... I screwed up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted November 3, 2020 Author Share Posted November 3, 2020 We'll at least have another pass to see if the pressure is still falling. Based on the warm eye, I expect it to continue falling between now and then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: I’m gonna bet NHC goes 155 or maybe 160 anyway this advisory. She’s gonna go a little lower and respond wind wise in the next few hrs I’d expect. Same here man! Dead on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhirlingWx Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 Eta thinking of the wild expectations y'all put out (Not a criticism of y'all who know much more than me, I also thought it'd be sub 910 and still won't throw in the towel on Cat 5) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 1 minute ago, hlcater said: She's not gonna get much lower and faster when the core looks like this lol. I'm not sure whether or not this peaked a few hours ago though. Wouldn't shock me but I think it's still strengthening but maybe slower than earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 Welp. They went 150mph and 927mb. They do call for it to become a cat 5 before landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 Raw T up to 8.4 per UW CIMSS. This may look perfect but it takes time to deepen. If there's a large drop between passes I think we make a run at 900mb overnight. If there is not a large drop then I think this will max out at 915-920mb 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 Just now, StormChaser4Life said: Wouldn't shock me but I think it's still strengthening but maybe slower than earlier It might be, waiting on the next pass for sure. Though I think the truly rapid intensification is probably over with a well defined concentric band taking shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 Don't ask me why but the HWRF is actually showing the strongest winds in the southwest quad 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 For the convo about best looking storms we forgot a relevant one in this region: Mitch at peak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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