downeastnc Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 Crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 It has been a long time since we've seen a sub-900mb Atlantic storm. I think this one will come up just short. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 On 11/3/2020 at 1:49 AM, Windspeed said: Background pressures seem high due to the digging ridge. If Eta is below 910 mb, considering its small RMW, it's probably pushing 160 kts at the surface. Expand I looked at that for a minute but idk that's a fairly large gyre of low pressure in the SW Caribbean 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 899 mb, 160 kt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 Been lurking in here and man is this both equal parts fun and terrifying. If I had to throw a guess, lets go with: 898mb/165kts. Idc if this is late or not. Just doing it for posterity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 Entries now closed. Final predictions: LongBeachSurfFreak: 920mb/145kt The Ghost of Leroy: 920mb X --> 900/160kts jpeters3: 895mb Moderately Unstable: 917mb/145kt X--> 913/150kts sojitodd: 914-917mb Snowlover22: 890mb/155kt X--> revised: 170-175kts Newman: 910mb/150kt olafminesaw: 913mb/150kt X --> revised: 897mb/160kts Master of Disaster: 921mb/140kt Doc Jon: 888mb/155kt Will-Rutgers 925mb/140kt OhioWX: 923mb/145kt DDweatherman: 917mb/145kt yotaman: 915mb/145-150kt Floydbuster: 922mb/140kt BYG Jacob: 913mb/145kt X --> 895mb/160kts That Hurricane: 904mb/160kt CatLover014: 919mb/145kt Orangeburgwx: 919mb/140-145kt tiger_deF: 890mb/160kts Normandy: 883mb/160kts WxWatcher007: 912mb/148kts X revised: 903mb/155kts Hawkeye_wx: 916mb/140kts NorthArlington101: 907mb/150kts SRRTA22: 908mb/150kts USCAPEWEATHER: 896mb/165kts X --> 885mb/175kts Amped: 895mb/160kts pdm44: 901mb/155kts Prospero: 911mb/160kts BuffaloWeather: 906mb/140kts Stebo: 915mb/145kts OKTWISTER: 932mb/140kts Wild Weather Monger: 901mb/160kts Louieloy102: 903mb/150kts LakeEffectKing: 899mb/150kts wxmx: 885mb/165kts Jim Marusak: 935mb/140kts. hlcater: 901mb/150kts Calderon: 902mb/155kts OSUmetstud: 890mb/155kts NavarreDon: 903mb/155kts jojo762: 887mb/155kts BlueDXer: 899mb/165kts Calculation of consensus: Mean: 905.85mb/ 152.7kts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 898mb // 160 kt Edit: Crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 I'm doing now here what I swore I would not be doing tomorrow night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 881mb and 170kt or bust.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 On 11/3/2020 at 1:47 AM, BYG Jacob said: Put me down for 895 mb/160 knots now Expand @Moderately Unstable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castaway Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 892 165kts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 FWIW, highest raw T on Goni was 8.0. We are at 8.4 on eta right now. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 Funny, when I watch the sat for 200 frames, when it stops I see the swirl go backwards. I don't think that has ever happened, and believe me I have stared at many 200 frame animations in my life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 On 11/3/2020 at 1:56 AM, jpeters3 said: FWIW, highest raw T on Goni was 8.0. We are at 8.4 on eta right now. Expand It is crazy, this storm is defying our measurements! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueDXer75 Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 On 11/3/2020 at 1:02 AM, BlueDXer75 said: 165 kt/899 mb Expand I didn’t see this on the list. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 Highest Raw T on Patricia was 8.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 On 11/3/2020 at 1:57 AM, jpeters3 said: Highest Raw T on Patricia was 8.3 Expand Wow, this is perhaps stronger than Patricia if that is a measurement! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 On 11/3/2020 at 1:57 AM, jpeters3 said: Highest Raw T on Patricia was 8.3 Expand Jesus!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 On 11/3/2020 at 1:56 AM, jpeters3 said: FWIW, highest raw T on Goni was 8.0. We are at 8.4 on eta right now. Expand On 11/3/2020 at 1:57 AM, jpeters3 said: Highest Raw T on Patricia was 8.3 Expand i love how hard you're going. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 On 11/3/2020 at 1:59 AM, the ghost of leroy said: i love how hard you're going. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 On 11/3/2020 at 1:56 AM, jpeters3 said: FWIW, highest raw T on Goni was 8.0. We are at 8.4 on eta right now. Expand Wow. Eta is definitely highlighting the problem with the CI number needing to be spooled in. ADTv9 has it clamped at 1.3T/6hr so it can't catch up with the raw value quickly enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 On 11/3/2020 at 1:49 AM, downeastnc said: Expand Poor Goni, It was an 8.0 and only the second highest in the last week 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownpourDave Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 next update should do it if not close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 Just cycling thru COD satellite page taking it in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 smoke em if you got em. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 Nice comparison: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 On 11/3/2020 at 2:01 AM, Amped said: Poor Goni, It was an 8.0 and only the second highest in the last week Expand WPAC TCs just can’t keep pace with AO TCs (disclaimer: in 2020 only, offer not good for any other year) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 Yeah the recon plane is inside the CDO now, within 1.0 degree of latitude within the center. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 On 11/3/2020 at 2:03 AM, A-L-E-K said: Just cycling thru COD satellite page taking it in Expand It's a beauty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 My hands are going to fall off. This is more enthusiasm than the actual season prediction got. On 11/3/2020 at 2:01 AM, bdgwx said: Wow. Eta is definitely highlighting the problem with the CI number needing to be spooled in. ADTv9 has it clamped at 1.3T/6hr so it can't catch up with the raw value quickly enough. Expand No. This is an algorithm thing. Earlier for example it was capped at 0.7T/6hrs. Other times there are no constraints. CIMSS varies what rules they use based on a slew of decision trees (computer calculated). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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