NorthHillsWx Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 18 minutes ago, Amped said: The eye shape looks great, and stable. It could use some more warming though, which will probably happen in the next few hours. I already like this better than delta. I think it is a cleared out warm eye. It’s just so tiny that it’s somewhat obscured by the high topped eyewall clouds around it and the satellite angle not being exactly above it. You can see it on IR and visible extremely vividly now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 Also- I’d be shocked if this isn’t already a 4. I can’t believe I’m saying this after what I saw when I went to bed last night but this storm may make a run at cat 5. It is maximizing everything and developed the type of tight inner core that can lead to it reaching full potential in a hurry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 Well, haha, I mean, I would be surprised if it was a 4. Hurricanes don't just flip a switch from 1 to 4. Even Wilma took 24 hours to go from 1 to 5. No matter how powerful a storm, the winds don't rocket up to space instantly. We are talking hundreds of square miles. An average hurricane has 108 BILLION pounds of water (a typical thunderstorm is around 106 million pounds). Momentum, p=mv. Mass times velocity. To translate that, you need a LOT of energy to speed up those winds. It takes time. I think it's a 3. It's got potential though. Now everyone can we agree that when the storm doesn't look perfect in 2 hours we won't freak out and think it's over? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 17 minutes ago, Windspeed said: There have not been many major hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin during the month of November. There has ever only been one known Category 5, the 1932 Camagüey hurricane that struck Cuba and was devastating to their eastern province. So we're most definitely entering rare territory here and perhaps even the rarest by the end of the day. You know, if you follow the senior nhc scientists and tropical system professors on Twitter, they're all foaming as much as we are over this one hahahaha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 6 minutes ago, Moderately Unstable said: Well, haha, I mean, I would be surprised if it was a 4. Hurricanes don't just flip a switch from 1 to 4. Even Wilma took 24 hours to go from 1 to 5. No matter how powerful a storm, the winds don't rocket up to space instantly. We are talking hundreds of square miles. An average hurricane has 108 BILLION pounds of water (a typical thunderstorm is around 106 million pounds). Momentum, p=mv. Mass times velocity. To translate that, you need a LOT of energy to speed up those winds. It takes time. I think it's a 3. It's got potential though. Now everyone can we agree that when the storm doesn't look perfect in 2 hours we won't freak out and think it's over? Oh I agree but these tight-cored systems can do it and it has the look and T numbers of a cat 4. This looks 100x better than delta as a 4 in the same region for comparison. With a tight core wind speeds can catch up much quicker to pressure falls and I expect an insane pressure fall when next flight gets in there. If it’s not a 4 it’s for sure a high end 3 and still deepening. It already shot up from 65 to 95 kts from 4 to 10 am and I think that rate of deepening has only continued Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 5 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Oh I agree but these tight-cored systems can do it and it has the look and T numbers of a cat 4. This looks 100x better than delta as a 4 in the same region for comparison. With a tight core wind speeds can catch up much quicker to pressure falls and I expect an insane pressure fall when next flight gets in there. If it’s not a 4 it’s for sure a high end 3 and still deepening. It already shot up from 65 to 95 kts from 4 to 10 am and I think that rate of deepening has only continued I agree on the sat presentation. I think that's why the professionals and amateurs alike are so enthusiastic. This is an excellently structured storm, and the closed eye prevents mixing of outside air and makes 2-3mb falls per hour reasonable to expect. I was more saying, patience. We've got 24 hours to go lol. T numbers are useful but not gospel. Earlier along I was watching the t numbers and felt they were lagging intensity. Now they may be overdoing it. The automated system is good but I prefer seeing stuff that a hurricane specialist has analyzed themselves when I look at t numbers. I use adt as a trend. If it is rocketing up the intensity, and the sat agrees, I generally expect strengthening. If the weakening flag is on and storm is in mediocre environment it can be an early clue to look for possible weakening. I try not to focus too much though on the specific number at a given time. Cimss does a great job but the system is rather complex in the way they figure out where the eye is, what constraints they use and the various rules that entails, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 1 minute ago, Moderately Unstable said: I agree on the sat presentation. I think that's why the professionals and amateurs alike are so enthusiastic. This is an excellently structured storm, and the closed eye prevents mixing of outside air and makes 2-3mb falls per hour reasonable to expect. I was more saying, patience. We've got 24 hours to go lol. Haha hard not to get excited with this one #satelliteporn 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 Apparently, the midday recon got canceled as well. The schedule had it in the storm late this morning. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said: Apparently, the midday recon got canceled as well. The schedule had it in the storm late this morning. Ugh. Any Twitter updates for why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 Just now, hawkeye_wx said: Apparently, the midday recon got canceled as well. The schedule had it in the storm late this morning. Ugh. Is it too much to ask for recon in the best looking storm of the year?!?! Lol. I’m pretty confident the data would be shocking compared to this mornings flight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said: Is it too much to ask for recon in the best looking storm of the year?!?! Lol. I’m pretty confident the data would be shocking compared to this mornings flight yeah that is awful. They need to be in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 contrary to what you might all think, I'm sure recon missions aren't cancelled to piss off weather weenies. There is probably a totally legitimate reason for this decision. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 Wonder if there are any Scatter passes over the next few hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, jpeters3 said: contrary to what you might all think, I'm sure recon missions aren't cancelled to piss off weather weenies. There is probably a totally legitimate reason for this decision. Lmao I don't think, well, I hope, people didn't think that. If I were nhc though I'd try to dispatch a noaa plane if the issue was with the air force division. Normally I'm pretty flexible but I think they should try and get someone in there. This walks talks and quacks like a historic storm. Also, going to generate some huge ace numbers if/when back over the water next week. Long lasting high intensity equals 30-40 for ace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, jpeters3 said: contrary to what you might all think, I'm sure recon missions aren't cancelled to piss off weather weenies. There is probably a totally legitimate reason for this decision. Yes. Tax cuts were needed. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 Just now, the ghost of leroy said: Yes. Tax cuts were needed. touche. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 Recons planes have had a lot of mileage put on them this year. I'm not surprised that they are having issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 2 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said: Yes. Tax cuts were needed. Let’s start a gofundme for the hurricane hunters lol. This site alone could sponsor several extra flights a year! lmao 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 1 minute ago, hlcater said: Someone finally made the cheesy ETA pun 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 You know it’s a solid storm when the resident board haters aren’t bashing it not calling out names haha 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 Over the last 30+ minutes, the 1-minute meso loop is showing eye shrinkage and even colder tops immediately surrounding the eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 This gives me chills. She’s a beaut 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 The projected landfall point is close to Puerto Cabezas, The one population center along the Nicaragua coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 Anyone have a classic AVN shot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted November 2, 2020 Author Share Posted November 2, 2020 Constant lightning going off in the eyewall. Recon may find a high end Category 4. Unless there is an ERC/structural change, Eta has our best shot of attaining Category 5 this year in the basin now. Happens now or try again next year I reckon. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted November 2, 2020 Author Share Posted November 2, 2020 Anyone have a classic AVN shot?Hah... Good timing. The one above that is smoothed and this one that is more like original AVN that was on the old NESDIS site. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 1 minute ago, Windspeed said: Constant lightning going off in the eyewall. Recon may find a high end Category 4. Unless there is an ERC/structural change, Eta has our beat shot of attaining Category 5 this year in the basin now. Happens now or try again next year I reckon. Holy crap. That’s amazing presentation for AVN. I agree, and this thing may be going into historic territory. I don’t think there’s a doubt in my mind recon would find a cat 4 at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 Cat 4 is probably a good bet right now. Would like recon to get in there sooner rather than later, as eye is probably no wider than 6nm or so. An eye that small is not stable and I'm not confident that it maintains itself long enough should the 1730z recon plane end up getting canceled. Think it peaks sometime later today/this evening and kinda just holds steady into landfall. Whether or not this attains cat 5 to me is solely a function of how long can the pinhole remain stable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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