Windspeed Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 Here we go again. Newly designated Invest 96L is already showing signs of further development tonight in the Lesser Antilles with strong southerly banding trying to close off a mid-level vortex. Too early to know if a surface circulation is forming, but clearly the disturbance is organizing. If TCG is ahead of schedule it could really open the door for a hurricane, perhaps a major by the time this moves into the Western Caribbean. Going ahead and firing up a thread due to land interaction and an obvious up in genesis progs. A large area of disturbed weather in the vicinity of the Lesser Antilles is associated with a tropical wave. Upper-level winds are expected to become more conducive for development of this disturbance during the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the time the system reaches the western Caribbean Sea early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 I'm gathering this wont be a US threat but more of a Central American threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 Unironically the most bullish I've been on any storm this season. Nearly perfect upper level anticyclonic pattern combined with excellent OHC and above average SDT's given the time of the year, as well as a vigorous circulation that appears to already be in the process of developing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 30, 2020 Author Share Posted October 30, 2020 Radar out of Martinique. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 30, 2020 Author Share Posted October 30, 2020 I'm gathering this wont be a US threat but more of a Central American threat If this goes bonkers in the central Caribbean, it may leave the door open for the GOM. Upper mid-level flow would be more ESErly for a WNW track if a stronger stacked hurricane. This could be another Yucatán strike and then depending on downstream wave/trough interaction, could lift poleward. But obviously it's too early. But a weaker system would seem more likely a Nicaraguan/Honduras threat. A stronger hurricane a Belize/Yucatán/GOM threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 15 minutes ago, Windspeed said: If this goes bonkers in the central Caribbean, it may leave the door open for the GOM. Upper mid-level flow would be more ESErly for a WNW track if a stronger stacked hurricane. This could be another Yucatán strike and then depending on downstream wave/trough interaction, could lift poleward. But obviously it's too early. But a weaker system would seem more likely a Nicaraguan/Honduras threat. A stronger hurricane a Belize/Yucatán/GOM threat. Hey, let's slam another tropical system into Lousiana. I don't think they've had enough this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 30, 2020 Author Share Posted October 30, 2020 NHC has bumped up the 2 day to 70%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 30, 2020 Author Share Posted October 30, 2020 Since daybreak. Evident mid-level rotation in the cloud envelope. There is low-level banding streaming out of the NNW which seems somewhat suspicious that a surface low has closed even if weak. Either way, this disturbance continues to look better with each hour. May have a depression by this evening. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 30, 2020 Author Share Posted October 30, 2020 12z intensity guidance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 HMON deepens from 999mb at 48hrs to 943mb at 93hrs. Solid Cat3-4 at landfall over an area that's mostly jungle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 ETA for Belize? Sorry, could not resist. Speaking of resist could you imagine getting all the way to Ω before Thanksgiving in the 'States? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 HWRF gets this down to 937mb at landfall near the Nicaragua/Honduras border...nearly the same spot as HMON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 Maybe a naive question, but we are on 96L. Does that mean this season stared with 1L? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 3 minutes ago, Prospero said: Maybe a naive question, but we are on 96L. Does that mean this season stared with 1L? No, Invests start at 90L and go to 99L. The list is then reset back to 90L after 99 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 Hm. 29 degree SSTs, well developed convection, 10 knots of shear relaxing by Monday morning, dynamical and statistical models bullish and in agreement, favorable MJO. Probably a non-event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 And once again a 18z GFS run decimates south Florida, has a hurricane sitting over it for three straight days. Maybe this one will be it? Will south Florida escape this season? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 1 hour ago, Prospero said: Maybe a naive question, but we are on 96L. Does that mean this season stared with 1L? Yup it’s just like the 18 Covids 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted October 30, 2020 Share Posted October 30, 2020 17 minutes ago, cptcatz said: And once again a 18z GFS run decimates south Florida, has a hurricane sitting over it for three straight days. Maybe this one will be it? Will south Florida escape this season? More like a moderate ts at worst. 10m winds in the 30 to 40 kt range. Pressure in the mid to high 980s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 30, 2020 Author Share Posted October 30, 2020 Need recon. This convection looks like it is encompassing a very small surface vortex. Same general latitude as was suspect earlier prior to waning. Don't know if it will be enough to garner TD status by 11PM ADT, but the disturbance continues to organize. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 1 hour ago, cptcatz said: And once again a 18z GFS run decimates south Florida, has a hurricane sitting over it for three straight days. Maybe this one will be it? Will south Florida escape this season? To be honest, I'd feel better if we do get a very late yet respectable storm this season to complete the map where every mile of the eastern US was in a cone at some point. If we on the central west coast of Florida by freak luck skipped this year, I'll be on edge next year!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 4 hours ago, Boston Bulldog said: No, Invests start at 90L and go to 99L. The list is then reset back to 90L after 99 I kept thinking everything was a 90 something. Was I losing my mind? Getting so old everything is so close to 100? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 GFS with one of it's most 2020 runs ever. Every other model allows the NErly flow @ 500mb to capture it and pull it SW across central America. GFS showed that a few runs ago but now changed it's mind. I think it's a fugiwara effect with a convective blob to the north that's preventing it from being pulled SW but I'm open to other suggestions. Probably nothing like this verifies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 My question: What turns it west like that? Its recurving and then it stops on a dime right before it hits Florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 31, 2020 Author Share Posted October 31, 2020 Banding on the south side of evident mid-level cyclonic rotation. Still no certainty of a vortex down at the surface but with that strong convective band aligned west to east and curving into the MCS, I have seen far worse classified a Tropical Depression. Getting a little impatient. We do not have any recon flight plans yet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 52 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Banding on the south side of evident mid-level cyclonic rotation. Still no certainty of a vortex down at the surface but with that strong convective band aligned west to east and curving into the MCS, I have seen far worse classified a Tropical Depression. Getting a little impatient. We do not have any recon flight plans yet. Has the TD look for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 31, 2020 Author Share Posted October 31, 2020 No reconnaissance flights until tomorrow so we'll have to make due with visible satellite evidence and ASCAT today. Perhaps a ship report or two. All station bouys in this region of the Caribbean for air pressure and winds are not currently operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 06z GFS has it riding up through Florida next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 31, 2020 Author Share Posted October 31, 2020 MW pass is about 4 hrs old... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 31, 2020 Share Posted October 31, 2020 Amped is probably right about the convective blob north of the center on the GFS messing with the future track. The Euro continues to simply plow this system across Central America. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 31, 2020 Author Share Posted October 31, 2020 There now looks to be a closed surface vortex under that mid-level canopy. Clear low-level cumulus are streaking ESE and eastward now within the cloud field, a sign low-level westerlies are increasing. Still no good recent ASCAT. We'll see if we get a better one this afternoon, but a spade is a spade. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now