November 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[Brian5671]

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

If that’s the case, awful but all the better. A train of teases or nearby getting heavy snow and 33-34 rain here are the worst. Let ‘em all cut for Buffalo then and have it be warm here. Hopefully it’s not the cutter then days of bitter cold and dry before another cutter. Ninas are famous for that here too. 

In some ways, when we get an 11-12 type winter it's actually enjoyable-there's no hope of anything so I just give up and get outside and enjoy the warmth and lower heating bills.

[qg_omega]

14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

In some ways, when we get an 11-12 type winter it's actually enjoyable-there's no hope of anything so I just give up and get outside and enjoy the warmth and lower heating bills.

We gave up last year, some sooner than others

[Brian5671]

25 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

We gave up last year, some sooner than others

Mid January's usually the time-if the pattern doesn't show by then, it's not likely to.

[Cfa]

Last winter was essentially a dead on match with SE Virginia’s averages, aside from Dec being ultra wet.

[Stormlover74]

Upton has been too conservative with high temperature forecasts. Already 72 here. Probably low to maybe even mid 70s over the weekend, not upper 60s as forecast

[gravitylover]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

In some ways, when we get an 11-12 type winter it's actually enjoyable-there's no hope of anything so I just give up and get outside and enjoy the warmth and lower heating bills.

I'm good with lower oil bills.

 

 

[bluewave]

Areas to our north are approaching record highs for the date. BDL is within a few degrees of the record set back in 2015. Pretty good high temperature guidance beat today.

 

Bradley Intl   MOSUNNY   74  36  

Almanac for HARTFORD-BRADLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, CT
November 6, 2020

Daily Data	Observed	Normal	Record Highest	Record Lowest
Max Temperature	M	55	76 in 2015	33 in 1953

[Brian5671]

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Areas to our north are approaching record highs for the date. BDL is within a few degrees of the record set back in 2015. Pretty good high temperature guidance beat today.

 

Bradley Intl   MOSUNNY   74  36  

Almanac for HARTFORD-BRADLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, CT
November 6, 2020

Daily Data	Observed	Normal	Record Highest	Record Lowest
Max Temperature	M	55	76 in 2015	33 in 1953

As the ground dries out I'd expect to see higher departures from guidance...no rain in sight until mid next week at least

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, Cfa said:

Last winter was essentially a dead on match with SE Virginia’s averages, aside from Dec being ultra wet.

We were due for a stretch of lousy warm winters and reverting back to our long term snow average. We can’t expect constant 40”+ winters here. The writing for more NW tracks and the SE ridge taking over was on the wall in 17-18 but we lucked out thankfully and held off enough. Repeat patterns for years on end seem to be the norm now. We’re certainly in a Nina type long term phase with the crazy Pacific Jet and will be until something in the Pacific fundamentally changes. No help from the NAO either in recent years. 

[bluewave]

16 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

As the ground dries out I'd expect to see higher departures from guidance...no rain in sight until mid next week at least

The guidance corrected warmer today. So it looks like the 70° day streak that started yesterday will continue into next week. Not really a surprise given the record 591 DM ridge for November.

KEWR   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE  11/06/2020  1200 UTC                       
 FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192      
      SAT 07| SUN 08| MON 09| TUE 10| WED 11| THU 12| FRI 13|SAT CLIMO
 N/X  53  73| 52  75| 52  73| 55  70| 59  71| 56  65| 47  58| 44 39 55

[Dark Star]

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Mid January's usually the time-if the pattern doesn't show by then, it's not likely to.

Exactly!  

[CIK62]

A strange  T progression and T distribution around our neck of the woods.        I just hit 69* at 4pm.      I have moved up rapidly while other locations had already topped out.

JFK apparently only 64*, while Newark was 73*.       NYC  70*.    LGA   72*.

The next 6 days are averaging 64*, or about +14, uncorrected.      Rain from Eta? is coming a day earlier now.      At any rate the GFS knocked off a full 10 degrees from the 13th. on latest run.

[Santa Claus]

this weather is (no accounting for personal tastes) perfect.  perfect.  it felt wonderful to be outside today, and basically that's what we have to look forward to until Wednesday.

and honestly, we basically need a warm winter this year with coronavirus afoot and rapidly getting out of control.  the restaurants and bars need the outdoor dining opportunities, outdoor recreation and exercise is safest, and viruses tend to survive better in colder and drier environments.  i wouldn't mind punting on winter this year.

[tim]

24 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

A strange  T progression and T distribution around our neck of the woods.        I just hit 69* at 4pm.      I have moved up rapidly while other locations had already topped out.

JFK apparently only 64*, while Newark was 73*.       NYC  70*.    LGA   72*.

The next 6 days are averaging 64*, or about +14, uncorrected.      Rain from Eta? is coming a day earlier now.      At any rate the GFS knocked off a full 10 degrees from the 13th. on latest run.

...yeah..i can see why..i'm @ 57* with low clouds and fog..left the north folk(under sunny skies temps high 60's) and as we 

headed south the dreaded marine layer became more prominent..thats the 2nd day in a row its happened.

[donsutherland1]

Temperatures rose into the 70s in many parts of the region today. High temperatures included: Albany: 70°; Allentown: 70°; Baltimore: 75°; Boston: 72°; Bridgeport: 67°; Harrisburg: 71°; Hartford: 75°; Islip: 66°; New York City: 70°; Newark: 73°; Philadelphia: 71°; Providence: 72° (tied record set in 1959 and tied in 1994 and 2015); Poughkeepsie: 73°; Washington, DC: 70°; and, White Plains: 70°.

Tomorrow will be another unseasonably warm day with highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s in much of the region.

Record warmth again extended across the Plains States, parts of Canada and into the Great Lakes Region. Record high temperatures included:

Caribou: 66° (old record: 63°, 1959)
Duluth: 75° (old record: 70°, 2016) ***New November Record***
Eau Claire, WI: 75° (old record: 70°, 1916 and 2016)
Green Bay: 72° (old record: 69°, 2016)
Milwaukee: 74° (old record: 70°, 2016)
Minneapolis: 75° (old record: 73°, 1893)
North Platte, NE: 87° (old record: 82°, 1980) ***New November Record***
Rhinelander, WI: 73° (old record: 70°, 2016)
Rockford, IL: 76° (old recorfd: 74°, 1916 and 1924)
Sioux Falls, SD: 82° (old record: 73°, 2004) ***New November Record***

The core of the exceptional warmth that has been setting records across the Plains States into the Great Lakes region will gradually shift eastward. This weekend into the start of next week, it will be focused on the Great Lakes Region and southern Ontario and Quebec.

As that happens, a colder than normal pattern will become established in the Western third of the United States. From tomorrow night into Monday, the Northern Rockies could experience another significant winter storm.

In the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas, an extended period of above and much above normal temperatures will likely continue until at least near mid-November. The first half of the month will likely wind up much warmer than normal. The probability that November will have a mean temperature of 50° or above in Central Park has increased. The last time that occurred was 2015.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.7°C for the week centered around October 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at through the winter.

The SOI was -4.71.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +3.257.

On November 5 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.675 (RMM). The November 4-adjusted amplitude was 0.748.

Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is likely for winter 2020-21. It is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with potentially below normal snowfall. The November run of the seasonal European guidance suggests that winter 2020-21 will likely be warmer to much warmer than normal in the region.

The potential also exists for below to much below normal seasonal snowfall in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Since 1970, there were 9 winters that saw the AO and EPO average +0.25 or above. Mean snowfall for Boston, Harrisburg, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC averaged 50% of the most recent 30-season mean. The largest snowfall deficits relative to the most recent 30-season mean figure were located in the Philadelphia to New York City corridor. In addition, 33% of cases saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City and 44% saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in Philadelphia.

 

[snowman19]

4 hours ago, jm1220 said:

We were due for a stretch of lousy warm winters and reverting back to our long term snow average. We can’t expect constant 40”+ winters here. The writing for more NW tracks and the SE ridge taking over was on the wall in 17-18 but we lucked out thankfully and held off enough. Repeat patterns for years on end seem to be the norm now. We’re certainly in a Nina type long term phase with the crazy Pacific Jet and will be until something in the Pacific fundamentally changes. No help from the NAO either in recent years. 

The last long stretch of horrible winters was 1979-1992. We’ve been pretty lucky ever since then, especially the period from 2000-2015.....

[nycwinter]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The last long stretch of horrible winters was 1979-1992. We’ve been pretty lucky ever since then, especially the period from 2000-2015.....

we had some nice snowstorms in such winters.. you mentioned...

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 61degs.[54/67].    Making it 56degs., or +7.0.     GEFS does not have a single BN day upcoming in the next 16.

55*(73%RH) here at 6am.      56* at 7am.     58* at 8am.     60* at 9am.      61* at 10am. [67*,EWR, 66* JFK, 64* NYC]

NOON ROUNDUP>>>>     I have 65*,   JFK, NYC 70*, LGA 71*, EWR 74*

Finally 70* here at 2pm----by contrast, EWR holding at 76*, same as its 1pm reading.    71* at 2:15pm.   72* at 2:30pm.     73* at 2:45pm,  but still 73* at 3pm.---EWR also continued at 76*.        Topped out at 73*.         69* by 5pm.

Tropics:     18.8N   83.2W.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

Today will be partly sunny and very warm. High temperatures in the region will likely reach mainly the lower and even middle 70s. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 72°

Newark: 75°

Philadelphia: 73°

An extended period of warmer to much warmer than normal conditions is underway.

[bluewave]

Newark needs to keep the November 70° day streak going through Monday for the new record. 1938, 1982,1975, and 1994 all had 4 consecutive days. So Newark needs to reach at least 5 consecutive days for the new November record.

2020-11-05	70
2020-11-06	73

 

1938-11-05	75
1938-11-06	72
1938-11-07	78
1938-11-08	72

 

1975-11-07	71
1975-11-08	76
1975-11-09	75
1975-11-10	70

 

1982-11-01	77
1982-11-02	79
1982-11-03	74
1982-11-04	72

 

1994-11-03	71
1994-11-04	79
1994-11-05	76
1994-11-06	71

[Stormlover74]

Made it to 75 so far

[bluewave]

The 76° so far at Newark is just 2° off the record high of 78°.

Newark Liberty MOSUNNY   76  43 

07 Nov 12:51 pm

76

43

31

SW

5

10.00

FEW250

30.22

1023.8

30.24

76

48

 

11/7

78 in 1938

71 in 2015

71 in 1996+

[Cfa]

74 here right now. Very fitting for today’s news. Absolutely perfect.

[dmillz25]

75 here 

[Rjay]

Amazing day.  74/48. The sun feels great. 

[bluewave]

Looks like a new record high for JFK. The most recent record high was set back in 2015.

Kennedy Intl   MOSUNNY   72  47  40 SW9  

11/7

70 in 2015

66 in 2001

66 in 1975

 

 

[Brian5671]

75 here

[bluewave]

Record high of 75° at POU.

 

[Rtd208]

Current temp is 78 here.

[doncat]

74/47 temp split today...the 74° reading tied record high for date.