November 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[wdrag]

60F in Wantage abd p/.s. 0.38 total. 

[donsutherland1]

This morning, temperatures were in the lower 60s along the Long Island Sound where low clouds periodically broke to allow for some sunshine.

[Intensewind002]

Picked up about .42" of rain this morning, up to 61F for the temp right now

[dWave]

Mostly cloudy with a few breaks of sun most of the morn..now just partly sunny..up to 66.

[psv88]

What a day. Went to Robert Moses. Beautiful day!

[Rjay]

Great day to eat outside.  I hope people take that option. 

[bluewave]

Looks like LGA tied the record high of 67°. This is a normal Thanksgiving for Charleston, SC. So another example of the subtropical climate zone shifting north.

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=KLGA&table=1&num=168&banner=off

Almanac for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
November 26, 2020

Daily Data	Observed	Normal	Record Highest	Record Lowest
Max Temperature	67	51	67 in 1946	34 in 1974

Almanac for Charleston Area, SC (ThreadEx)
November 26, 2020

Daily Data	Observed	Normal	Record Highest	Record Lowest
Max Temperature	M	67	82 in 1973	41 in 1938

 

[dWave]

26 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Great day to eat outside.  I hope people take that option. 

Yeah me too. I wish this was forecasted. Would of changed everything if ppl could of planned ahead.  I still give thanks for a great afternoon . Saw a good amount of people out riding bikes etc..

[STORMANLI]

2 hours ago, psv88 said:

What a day. Went to Robert Moses. Beautiful day!

Yes, 63° and 0.76".

[CIK62]

Anyone else reach 67*?       That is where I peaked for a few minutes near 3:15pm.     Unlikely that a coastal area had the highest T.

Both 12Z, 18Z GFS are cold and dry starting Dec. 02.

18Z cut the precipitation for Nov. 30-Dec.01 to a third---to  0.60"---of the 12Z.

[uncle W]

67 max today...0.47" of rainfall this morning...

[donsutherland1]

Temperatures soared well into the 60s across the region this Thanksgiving Day. Tomorrow will be partly cloudy and still unseasonably mild.

Late this weekend into early next week, a storm could bring moderate to heavy rainfall to the Southeast and then up the East Coast. Following the storm, the Southeast could see unseasonably cool temperatures. The core of this colder air will likely stay south of the region, but somewhat below normal to near normal readings are likely in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas.

Overall, December could start off mild before that period of cooler than normal to near normal temperatures commences. This cooler period could still give way to warmer readings at some point during the second week of December, but there is considerable uncertainty. The now likely development of a AO-/PNA+ pattern has shifted the outlook toward colder temperatures during the first half of December (consistent with statistical guidance). The duration of the AO-/PNA+ pattern could delay any warmup until near mid-month.

Statistical guidance based on the ENSO state and teleconnections would typically favor a colder regime for the first half of December. The dynamical guidance has moved closer to this idea for the Middle Atlantic region. Both historic experience following exceptionally warm November cases and the latest weekly and monthly guidance suggest that a warmer than normal December remains the base case even if the first half of the month winds up colder than normal. Almost 90% of cases with a November mean temperature of 51.5° or above in Central Park went on to record a warmer than normal December and just over three-quarters of such cases saw December register a monthly mean temperature of 40.0° or above.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.5°C for the week centered around November 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.42°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through the winter.

The SOI was +5.21.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.227.

On November 25 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.937 (RMM). The November 24-adjusted amplitude was 0.705.

Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely through the start of December.  

Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 10/11 (91%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is very likely for winter 2020-21. It is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with below normal snowfall.

Since 1950, there have been four La Niña winters that started with a warm December in the Northeast and warmth across much of Canada, as is the current forecast on the monthly EPS, latest weekly EPS and latest CFSv2 monthly guidance: 1974-75, 1998-99, 1999-00, and 2011-12. All featured a warmer than normal winter and among the winter months that followed December, only January 2000 was colder than normal in the East. Median seasonal snowfall figures were as follows: New York City: 12.9" and Philadelphia: 13.1".

Since 1970, there were 9 winters that saw the AO and EPO average +0.25 or above. Mean snowfall for Boston, Harrisburg, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC averaged 50% of the most recent 30-season mean. The largest snowfall deficits relative to the most recent 30-season mean figure were located in the Philadelphia to New York City corridor. In addition, 33% of cases saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City and 44% saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in Philadelphia.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November. November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 52.2°.

 

[Cfa]

High of 63 with a matching 0.63” of rainfall.

[CIK62]

The last 4 days of November are averaging 54degs.[47/57].        Making it 51degs., or +8.0.

Month to date is  53.0[+4.6].         November should end at 52.7[+5.0].

Nothing but Traces of snow indicated on any model (near Dec. 06,07).       At least when the T dips below 50 on Dec. 01, there is no indication of its return during December-----IWBIWICit.      

54*(75%RH) at 6am, m. clear.       53* at 7am.      56* by 10am.      58* by Noon. (clouded up and feels humid)        60* at 1pm.       61* at 1:30pm.          59* at 5pm, and most of the PM.         52* by 11pm.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

Today will be partly cloudy and quite mild for the season. Temperatures will likely top out in the upper 50s and lower 60s across the area. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 59°
Newark: 61°
Philadelphia: 61°

The remainder of November will be generally warmer than normal.

 

[bluewave]

Very warm end to November should allow NYC to finish near the top of the warmest Novembers list.

KNYC   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE  11/27/2020  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192      
 FRI  27| SAT 28| SUN 29| MON 30| TUE 01| WED 02| THU 03| FRI 04 CLIMO
 X/N  60| 46  58| 42  57| 48  60| 50  54| 36  45| 38  47| 39  46 34 47

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Nov
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2020	53.0	4
2	2015	52.8	0
3	2001	52.7	0
4	1979	52.5	0
5	1948	52.4	0
6	1975	52.3	0
7	2011	51.9	0
-	2006	51.9	0
-	1994	51.9	0
-	1931	51.9	0
8	1902	51.4	0
9	2009	51.1	0
10	1999	50.8	0

[qg_omega]

[FPizz]

Just hit 61.  Perfect day to put up xmas lights

[bluewave]

NYC currently in the lead for the warmest January through November on record. This is the 5th top 10 warmest January through November since 2010.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Jan 1 to Nov 30	Missing Count
1	2020-11-30	59.1	4
2	2016-11-30	59.0	0
-	2010-11-30	59.0	0
3	1991-11-30	58.9	0
4	2012-11-30	58.8	0
5	1990-11-30	58.7	0
6	1953-11-30	58.6	0
-	1949-11-30	58.6	0
7	1998-11-30	58.5	0
8	2017-11-30	58.4	0
-	2002-11-30	58.4	0
9	2006-11-30	58.1	0
-	1999-11-30	58.1	0
10	1983-11-30	58.0	0

[donsutherland1]

Into the early afternoon, parts of the region enjoyed partly sunny skies and temperatures in the 60s. It was another early autumn-like late November day.

[donsutherland1]

Under partly sunny skies that yielded to mainly overcast skies during the afternoon, temperatures in the region rose into the upper 50s and lower 60s. Tomorrow will be partly sunny and somewhat cooler with readings mainly in the lower and middle 50s.

Sunday into Monday, a storm could bring moderate to perhaps heavy rainfall to the Southeast and then up the East Coast. Following the storm, the Southeast could see unseasonably cool temperatures. The core of this colder air will likely stay south of the region, but somewhat below normal to near normal readings are likely in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas for a period. Meanwhile, there are now early hints that an extended duration much warmer than normal regime will begin to develop in parts of western Canada starting during the first half of next week.

Overall, December could start off mild before that period of cooler than normal to near normal temperatures commences. This cooler period could still give way to warmer readings at some point during the second week of December, but there is is still uncertainty. The development of a AO-/PNA+ pattern has shifted the outlook toward colder temperatures during the first half of December (consistent with statistical guidance). Exceptional cold is unlikely. The duration of the AO-/PNA+ pattern could delay any warmup until near mid-month.

Statistical guidance based on the ENSO state and teleconnections would typically favor a colder regime for the first half of December. The dynamical guidance has moved closer toward this idea for the Middle Atlantic region. Both historic experience following exceptionally warm November cases and the latest weekly and monthly guidance suggest that a warmer than normal December remains the base case even if the first half of the month winds up colder than normal. Almost 90% of cases with a November mean temperature of 51.5° or above in Central Park went on to record a warmer than normal December and just over three-quarters of such cases saw December register a monthly mean temperature of 40.0° or above.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.5°C for the week centered around November 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.42°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through the winter.

The SOI was +3.18.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.847.

On November 26 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.171 (RMM). The November 25-adjusted amplitude was 0.944.

Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely through the middle of the first week of December.  

Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 10/11 (91%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is very likely for winter 2020-21. It is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with below normal snowfall.

Since 1950, there have been four La Niña winters that started with a warm December in the Northeast and warmth across much of Canada, as is the current forecast on the monthly EPS, latest weekly EPS and latest CFSv2 monthly guidance: 1974-75, 1998-99, 1999-00, and 2011-12. All featured a warmer than normal winter and among the winter months that followed December, only January 2000 was colder than normal in the East. Median seasonal snowfall figures were as follows: New York City: 12.9" and Philadelphia: 13.1".

Since 1970, there were 9 winters that saw the AO and EPO average +0.25 or above. Mean snowfall for Boston, Harrisburg, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC averaged 50% of the most recent 30-season mean. The largest snowfall deficits relative to the most recent 30-season mean figure were located in the Philadelphia to New York City corridor. In addition, 33% of cases saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City and 44% saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in Philadelphia.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November. November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 52.6° (3rd warmest on record). Considering modeling errors, there is a possibility that 2020 could compete with 2015 for the warmest November on record. November 2015 had a monthly mean temperature of 52.8°.   

 

[CIK62]

The last 3 days of November are averaging 51degs[46/56].        Making it 49degs., or +6.0.

Month to date is 53.1[+4.9].         November should end at  52.8[+5.2].

Some snow near Dec. 10th. indicated.

51*(63%RH) here at 6am, overcast.       54* by 11am(sun,clouds).       56* by 1pm.       57* by 3pm.        down to 46* by 11pm.

[bluewave]

The 53.1° average November temperature in NYC is normal for South Carolina.

Monthly Climate Normals (1981-2010) - GRNVL SPART INTL AP, SC

November	52.4

 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

Today will be partly sunny and still mild for the season. High temperatures in the region will likely reach the middle and upper 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 57°

Newark: 59°

Philadelphia: 58°

A storm will bring strong southeasterly winds, mild temperatures, and rain on Monday.

[donsutherland1]

Under variably cloudy skies, temperatures rose into the lower and middle 50s across the region. Tomorrow will be partly to mostly sunny, but clouds will increase late in the day or during the evening. Readings will remain warmer than normal.

Tomorrow into Monday, a storm could bring moderate to perhaps heavy rainfall to the Southeast and then up the East Coast. Following the storm, the Southeast could see unseasonably cool temperatures. The core of this colder air will likely stay south of the region, but somewhat below normal to near normal readings are likely in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas for a period. Meanwhile, there are now early hints that an extended duration much warmer than normal regime will begin to develop in parts of western Canada starting during the first half of next week.

Overall, December could start off mild before that period of cooler than normal to near normal temperatures commences. This cooler period could still give way to warmer readings at some point during the second week of December, but there is is still uncertainty. The development of a AO-/PNA+ pattern has shifted the outlook toward colder temperatures during the first half of December (consistent with statistical guidance). Exceptional cold is unlikely. The duration of the AO-/PNA+ pattern could delay any warmup until near mid-month.

Statistical guidance based on the ENSO state and teleconnections would typically favor a colder regime for the first half of December. Both historic experience following exceptionally warm November cases and the latest weekly and monthly guidance suggest that a warmer than normal December remains the base case even if the first half of the month winds up colder than normal. Almost 90% of cases with a November mean temperature of 51.5° or above in Central Park went on to record a warmer than normal December and just over three-quarters of such cases saw December register a monthly mean temperature of 40.0° or above.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.5°C for the week centered around November 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.42°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through the winter.

The SOI was +1.21.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.528.

On November 27 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.032 (RMM). The November 26-adjusted amplitude was 1.172.

Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely through the first week of December. Some warming above 2 mb is likely toward the end of that timeframe on account of Wave 1 activity.  

Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 10/11 (91%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is very likely for winter 2020-21. It is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with below normal snowfall.

Since 1950, there have been four La Niña winters that started with a warm December in the Northeast and warmth across much of Canada, as is the current forecast on the monthly EPS, latest weekly EPS and latest CFSv2 monthly guidance: 1974-75, 1998-99, 1999-00, and 2011-12. All featured a warmer than normal winter and among the winter months that followed December, only January 2000 was colder than normal in the East. Median seasonal snowfall figures were as follows: New York City: 12.9" and Philadelphia: 13.1".

Since 1970, there were 9 winters that saw the AO and EPO average +0.25 or above. Mean snowfall for Boston, Harrisburg, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC averaged 50% of the most recent 30-season mean. The largest snowfall deficits relative to the most recent 30-season mean figure were located in the Philadelphia to New York City corridor. In addition, 33% of cases saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City and 44% saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in Philadelphia.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November. November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 52.7° (tied for the 2nd warmest November on record). Considering modeling errors, there is a possibility that 2020 could compete with 2016 for the warmest November on record. November 2015 had a monthly mean temperature of 52.8°.   

 

[CIK62]

The last 2 days of November are averaging 52degs.(45/53).        Making it 50degs., or +7.0.

Month to date is  53.0[+4.9].       November should end at  52.8[+5.2].

No Snow showing till this time 2 weeks from now.

43*(55%RH) here at 6am, m. clear.       45* by 9am.        53* by 2pm.        55* at 3pm.        51* at 9pm.

[bluewave]

NYC still in 1st place for warmest November with a warm finish to the month coming up. Very extensive warmth across the entire CONUS. So the whole country on average is close to a top warmest November.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Nov
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2020	53.0	2
2	2015	52.8	0
3	2001	52.7	0
4	1979	52.5	0
5	1948	52.4	0
6	1975	52.3	0
7	2011	51.9	0
-	2006	51.9	0
-	1994	51.9	0
-	1931	51.9	0
8	1902	51.4	0
9	2009	51.1	0
10	1999	50.8	0

 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

Today will be mostly sunny and mild. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 55°

Newark: 57°

Philadelphia: 57°

A storm will bring strong southeasterly winds, mild temperatures, and rain on Monday. Some areas could see a thunderstorm.

[rclab]

59 minutes ago, bluewave said:

NYC still in 1st place for warmest November with a warm finish to the month coming up. Very extensive warmth across the entire CONUS. So the whole country on average is close to a top warmest November.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Nov
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2020	53.0	2
2	2015	52.8	0
3	2001	52.7	0
4	1979	52.5	0
5	1948	52.4	0
6	1975	52.3	0
7	2011	51.9	0
-	2006	51.9	0
-	1994	51.9	0
-	1931	51.9	0
8	1902	51.4	0
9	2009	51.1	0
10	1999	50.8	0

 

Sobering BW ..... old August becomes new September, old September becomes new October, old October becomes new November. A simple progression, yet its answer still eludes us. As always ....

[donsutherland1]

Under brilliant sunshine, the temperature soared into the lower and middle 50s this afternoon across the New York City area. Three photos from the New York Botanical Garden from this afternoon: