donsutherland1 Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 A strong cold front is now moving across the region. Tomorrow will be blustery and windy with temperatures staying in the 40s. A few locations could see some snow flurries. Overall, the first week of November will wind up cooler than normal. By mid-week, an area of much above normal temperatures will cover the Northern Plains. Readings could reach or exceed 70° in Bismarck on Wednesday and Thursday before this warmth shifts to the Great Lakes region and eastward. The warmth that will be centered over the Great Lakes region by the coming weekend will produce an extended period of above normal temperatures in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas, which will likely commence during latter part of the first week of this month. The first half of the month will likely wind up at least somewhat warmer than normal. A statistical regression based on ENSO and additional variables shows an anomaly of 1.5° to 2.5° above normal for the November 1-15 period. Through 7 pm, Needles, CA had not received any measurable precipitation. Without measurable precipitation, today would be Needles' record-tying 204th consecutive day without measurable precipitation. Las Vegas would extend its record to 195 days. The previous record there was 150 consecutive days, which was set during February 22-July 21, 1959. In addition, Phoenix saw the temperature reach 96° today. That tied the daily record set in 1924. It also tied the November record set on November 1, 1924 and tied on November 2, 1924 and November 3, 2009. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.4°C for the week centered around October 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.15°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least into mid-winter. The SOI was +28.76. That is the highest SOI value since April 2, 2018 when the SOI was +31.29. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.546. On October 31 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.235 (RMM). The October 30-adjusted amplitude was 1.371. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is likely for winter 2020-21. It is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with potentially below normal snowfall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 Decent rain event today, picked up about .55" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 .42 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 Snow showers tomorrow ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: A strong cold front is now moving across the region. Tomorrow will be blustery and windy with temperatures staying in the 40s. A few locations could see some snow flurries. Overall, the first week of November will wind up cooler than normal. By mid-week, an area of much above normal temperatures will cover the Northern Plains. Readings could reach or exceed 70° in Bismarck on Wednesday and Thursday before this warmth shifts to the Great Lakes region and eastward. The warmth that will be centered over the Great Lakes region by the coming weekend will produce an extended period of above normal temperatures in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas, which will likely commence during latter part of the first week of this month. The first half of the month will likely wind up at least somewhat warmer than normal. A statistical regression based on ENSO and additional variables shows an anomaly of 1.5° to 2.5° above normal for the November 1-15 period. Through 7 pm, Needles, CA had not received any measurable precipitation. Without measurable precipitation, today would be Needles' record-tying 204th consecutive day without measurable precipitation. Las Vegas would extend its record to 195 days. The previous record there was 150 consecutive days, which was set during February 22-July 21, 1959. In addition, Phoenix saw the temperature reach 96° today. That tied the daily record set in 1924. It also tied the November record set on November 1, 1924 and tied on November 2, 1924 and November 3, 2009. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.4°C for the week centered around October 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.15°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least into mid-winter. The SOI was +28.76. That is the highest SOI value since April 2, 2018 when the SOI was +31.29. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.546. On October 31 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.235 (RMM). The October 30-adjusted amplitude was 1.371. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is likely for winter 2020-21. It is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with potentially below normal snowfall. with all these dry conditions in the West, I'm wondering if this might actually be a torch winter for the entire CONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 2, 2020 Author Share Posted November 2, 2020 Picked up 0.31" of rain for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 My windows are shaking. I live on the 6th floor. 45 here in Brooklyn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 Record warm November coming up? Massive long lasting ridge in the east likely with tropics active well into the month. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 57degs. Making it 52degs., or +2.0. GFS has an average un-corrected 7 day high of 69degs., starting the 5th. Even EURO has 8 straight 60-Degree Days. No changes till at least the 12th. GFS 06Z. 9 60's incoming(four of them in the 70's)---80* Going Once, Twice............. GFS 12Z 11 60's incoming. See, I told you it was getting better. Well---final Election Results should be known by the next BN period. For Reference: Warmest November was in 2015 at 52.8[+5.1]. It had 5 70-Degree Days. We could get some too. 39*(60%RH) here at 5am. 40*(62%RH) by 7am. 41*(54%RH)by 9am. 42*(46%RH) by 11am. 45*(35%RH) by 2pm. Tropics: 14.7N 80.8W. May be still around and active 15 days from now!???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 The coming warm up will get a boost from one of the most impressive WAR patterns we have seen during the month of November. The strongest ridge that I could find in the OKX soundings for November was 589 DM. The ensemble forecasts have the potential for a 588 DM+ ridge by the weekend. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 7 minutes ago, bluewave said: The coming warm up will get a boost from one of the most impressive WAR patterns we have seen during the month of November. The strongest ridge that I could find in the OKX soundings for November was 589 DM. The ensemble forecasts have the potential for a 588 DM+ ridge by the weekend. Perhaps the eventual tropical system, whether it be Eta or another storm, that could impact FL Wilma style will be the pattern changing event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 36 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Perhaps the eventual tropical system, whether it be Eta or another storm, that could impact FL Wilma style will be the pattern changing event. Looks to be a very slow mover with such a strong blocking ridge to the north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 9 hours ago, LibertyBell said: with all these dry conditions in the West, I'm wondering if this might actually be a torch winter for the entire CONUS. A winter like 1998-99 with widespread warmth is among the possibilities. Other scenarios still exist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 Morning thoughts... At 7:45 AM, areas of snow covered large portions of central New York State including Cartland, Syracuse, and Oneida. A heavier snow shower was also located near Naugatuck in Connecticut. Today will be partly sunny, windy and cold. Some areas could see snow flurries or snow showers. High temperatures in the region will likely reach the lower and middle 40s. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 43° Newark: 45° Philadelphia: 46° During and after mid-week, an extended period of warmer temperatures is likely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 32 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Morning thoughts... At 7:45 AM, areas of snow covered large portions of central New York State including Cartland, Syracuse, and Oneida. A heavier snow shower was also located near Naugatuck in Connecticut. Today will be partly sunny, windy and cold. Some areas could see snow flurries or snow showers. High temperatures in the region will likely reach the lower and middle 40s. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 43° Newark: 45° Philadelphia: 46° During and after mid-week, an extended period of warmer temperatures is likely. Agree, looking to be at least a couple of weeks. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 14 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: A strong cold front is now moving across the region. Tomorrow will be blustery and windy with temperatures staying in the 40s. A few locations could see some snow flurries. Overall, the first week of November will wind up cooler than normal. By mid-week, an area of much above normal temperatures will cover the Northern Plains. Readings could reach or exceed 70° in Bismarck on Wednesday and Thursday before this warmth shifts to the Great Lakes region and eastward. The warmth that will be centered over the Great Lakes region by the coming weekend will produce an extended period of above normal temperatures in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas, which will likely commence during latter part of the first week of this month. The first half of the month will likely wind up at least somewhat warmer than normal. A statistical regression based on ENSO and additional variables shows an anomaly of 1.5° to 2.5° above normal for the November 1-15 period. Through 7 pm, Needles, CA had not received any measurable precipitation. Without measurable precipitation, today would be Needles' record-tying 204th consecutive day without measurable precipitation. Las Vegas would extend its record to 195 days. The previous record there was 150 consecutive days, which was set during February 22-July 21, 1959. In addition, Phoenix saw the temperature reach 96° today. That tied the daily record set in 1924. It also tied the November record set on November 1, 1924 and tied on November 2, 1924 and November 3, 2009. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.4°C for the week centered around October 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.15°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least into mid-winter. The SOI was +28.76. That is the highest SOI value since April 2, 2018 when the SOI was +31.29. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.546. On October 31 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.235 (RMM). The October 30-adjusted amplitude was 1.371. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is likely for winter 2020-21. It is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with potentially below normal snowfall. What’s most striking is how cold Nino region 4 has gotten, it’s been over a decade since it’s been this cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 Going to get warm for a extended period of time. Enjoy it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 22 minutes ago, snowman19 said: What’s most striking is how cold Nino region 4 has gotten, it’s been over a decade since it’s been this cold It's going to be an odd winter. The unusual western anomalies and the big Nina dip are out of sorts. The last couple winters were Ninos with Nina like patterns, I don't know what this winter will yield. I don't even think you can use past analogs anymore. Things are no longer as clear cut as they used to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It's going to be an odd winter. The unusual western anomalies and the big Nina dip are out of sorts. The last couple winters were Ninos with Nina like patterns, I don't know what this winter will yield. I don't even think you can use past analogs anymore. Things are no longer as clear cut as they used to be. People need to wait until the beginning of December to see what effects the upcoming -PNA/RNA pattern has on the SSTs off the western North American coast and the GOA. @Allsnow mentioned this yesterday, but there’s a possibility that all those warm anomalies get completely eroded away in the next several weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 7 minutes ago, snowman19 said: People need to wait until the beginning of December to see what effects the upcoming -PNA/RNA pattern has on the SSTs off the western North American coast and the GOA. @Allsnow mentioned this yesterday, but there’s a possibility that all those warm anomalies get completely eroded away in the next several weeks We will also need to see how strong the PV gets and if any blocking up top can throw punches at it. The last few years whatever pattern has taken over at the end of December has lasted the majority of the winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 its already a strong la nina...how long does it last?...without blocking the winter will suck... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 1 hour ago, uncle W said: its already a strong la nina...how long does it last?...without blocking the winter will suck... Agreed. We’re in a basin-wide strong La Niña. If we don’t see legit -AO and west-based -NAO blocking (east-based -NAO won’t help), we will be in deep trouble. The PAC side is most likely going to be garbage, -PNA/RNA, +EPO, +WPO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 Impressive long stretch of warm and dry weather about to start 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 The latest model runs are forecasting the strongest La Niña in history, they show region 3.4 dropping to -2.25C. If it happens, it would take 1st place over ‘73-‘74 and ‘88-‘89. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 The EPS weeklies are warmer than normal until further notice as the WAR pattern really locks in. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 1. WAR2. Record strong La Niña3. Raging PACTalk about a lump of coal this holiday season.. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 18 minutes ago, bluewave said: The EPS weeklies are warmer than normal until further notice as the WAR pattern really locks in. Yep. 11-12 here we come? Above normal way into December 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 1 minute ago, Superstorm said: 1. WAR 2. Record strong La Niña 3. Raging PAC Talk about a lump of coal this holiday season. . At least we can say we didn’t have high expectations this winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 2, 2020 Share Posted November 2, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 3, 2020 Share Posted November 3, 2020 2 hours ago, bluewave said: If the weeklies are anywhere close, then we are headed for a top 5 warmest La Niña November since 1950. Warmest La Niña Novembers in NYC since 1950 #1...52.3°...1975 #2...51.9°...2011 #3...50.8°...1999 #4...49.8°...2016 #5...49.6°...2005 I have 2005 and 2016 in my analog package...will we see a big February storm this year?...TWT... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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