November 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[dmillz25]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

While we still warm up back to around 60° heading into the weekend, we may get a backdoor with more easterly flow and clouds on Sunday.

KNYC   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE  11/18/2020  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192      
 WED  18| THU 19| FRI 20| SAT 21| SUN 22| MON 23| TUE 24| WED 25 CLIMO
 X/N  39| 31  50| 44  59| 50  60| 44  54| 49  60| 40  51| 44  56 37 50
 TMP  36| 33  49| 47  55| 51  54| 46  53| 51  53| 41  47| 46  52      
 DPT  12| 17  26| 33  37| 40  35| 36  47| 46  41| 30  34| 39  39      
 CLD  CL| CL  CL| CL  PC| PC  PC| OV  OV| OV  OV| CL  CL| OV  OV    

 

With the way today feels I’ll take 60°

[bluewave]

4 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

With the way today feels I’ll take 60°

Yeah, cool downs like today should be relatively brief with such a fast Pacific flow.

 

 

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

While we still warm up back to around 60° heading into the weekend, we may get a backdoor with more easterly flow and clouds on Sunday.

KNYC   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE  11/18/2020  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192      
 WED  18| THU 19| FRI 20| SAT 21| SUN 22| MON 23| TUE 24| WED 25 CLIMO
 X/N  39| 31  50| 44  59| 50  60| 44  54| 49  60| 40  51| 44  56 37 50
 TMP  36| 33  49| 47  55| 51  54| 46  53| 51  53| 41  47| 46  52      
 DPT  12| 17  26| 33  37| 40  35| 36  47| 46  41| 30  34| 39  39      
 CLD  CL| CL  CL| CL  PC| PC  PC| OV  OV| OV  OV| CL  CL| OV  OV    

 

Looks like we will have a trough hanging close to the east coast after next weekend. Will keep the southeast ridge at bay and not allow us to really torch.

[Rjay]

12 hours ago, Cfa said:

You really radiate much more than me. Low of 32 here. I’m just south of the moraine, it’s flat from here all the way to the Atlantic (and to Florida), but it gets hilly immediately to the north of me.

32 here the last 2 nights

[wdrag]

fwiw... past 24 hours rough idea of new snowfall. This part of Wantage NJ Trace both yesterday and this morning. 

[Eduardo]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, cool downs like today should be relatively brief with such a fast Pacific flow.

 

 

Would be great to slow down the firehose.  It's definitely killed the last few winters at the coast.

[psv88]

39 minutes ago, Rjay said:

32 here the last 2 nights

31 last night

[dWave]

35 after a low of 32. coldest of season so far, 1st freeze 

[SnoSki14]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, cool downs like today should be relatively brief with such a fast Pacific flow.

 

 

It'll also make ridges harder to sustain. Models are showing a much more variable pattern (still mild) that's not as torchy as we've seen before. 

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Looks like we will have a trough hanging close to the east coast after next weekend. Will keep the southeast ridge at bay and not allow us to really torch.

I hope we don't have 4 months of March again. There were so many cloudy, dreary 40s & 50s type days last winter. 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Looks like we will have a trough hanging close to the east coast after next weekend. Will keep the southeast ridge at bay and not allow us to really torch.

So we may finish November with average temperatures closer to the 2011 and 1999 La Ninas rather than than 2015 super El Niño.
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Nov
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2020	55.1	13
2	2015	52.8	0
3	2001	52.7	0
4	1979	52.5	0
5	1948	52.4	0
6	1975	52.3	0
7	2011	51.9	0
-	2006	51.9	0
-	1994	51.9	0
-	1931	51.9	0
8	1902	51.4	0
9	2009	51.1	0
10	1999	50.8	0

 

 

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

So we may finish November with average temperatures closer to the 2011 and 1999 La Ninas rather than than 2015 super El Niño.
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Nov
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2020	55.1	13
2	2015	52.8	0
3	2001	52.7	0
4	1979	52.5	0
5	1948	52.4	0
6	1975	52.3	0
7	2011	51.9	0
-	2006	51.9	0
-	1994	51.9	0
-	1931	51.9	0
8	1902	51.4	0
9	2009	51.1	0
10	1999	50.8	0

 

 

Let’s hope we get a January 2000. We had a good 2-3 week period of winter that month 

[bluewave]

24 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Let’s hope we get a January 2000. We had a good 2-3 week period of winter that month 

There were some similarities between the 99-00 and 11-12 La Ninas. Both featured a mild November and December. The biggest snowstorm of both winters occurred almost on the same date in late January. 
 

NYC

2000-01-25

30

25

27.5

-5.0

37

0

0.73

5.5

2

2012-01-21

29

22

25.5

-6.8

39

0

0.39

4.3

1

[Cfa]

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

32 here the last 2 nights

31 here this morning.

[gravitylover]

More flakes and still 29*

[dmillz25]

Low of 32 here, only 34 so far

[Allsnow]

High of 36 so far today. More of a late December feel then November 

[bluewave]

4 hours ago, Eduardo said:

Would be great to slow down the firehose.  It's definitely killed the last few winters at the coast.

We may have to wait until another strong El Niño emerges to see a dominant STJ instead. Jan 16 was one of my all time favorites.

 

 

 

[Rtd208]

Cold day out there. Current temp is 37 here.

Overnight low was 32

[SRRTA22]

39f for the high in Jersey City and currently 35

Overnight low was also 32

[SnoSki14]

Temps will tank tonight. My forecast is 21F and it's 37F currently.

[BucksCO_PA]

3 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Let’s hope we get a January 2000. We had a good 2-3 week period of winter that month 

Don't get me wrong that winter wasn't epic & something that'll be remembered for years however it does have it's moments. 

At Philly the 31 day period from 1/14 thru 2/13 was quite cold, -6.4 degree departure. Over that span 15.8" of snow officially at the airport, a tick or two more here locally NE of the city. What's interesting is the # of consecutive days with at least 1" of snow cover. At PHL snow depth records go back to 1948 and that winter had the 3rd longest stretch on record.

JAN/FEB 1961 - 28 days

FEB/MAR 2003 - 26 days

JAN/FEB 2000 - 23 days

Locally I finished that season with just over 24" close to average. Included an APR stat padder, throw in some bonus pts. for a double digit storm & yeah after the laundry list of dreadful outlooks I'd sign up for something similar.

Locally 37 / 31 split so far today, 37 is the coldest high temp since FEB 29th

1st freeze if not late tonight then certainly tomorrow morning at PHL, the airport will finish with a growing season of 260 days while my location 10 miles NE of the city is a dramatically different 173 days thanks to the solid May freeze.

[forkyfork]

5 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Let’s hope we get a January 2000. We had a good 2-3 week period of winter that month 

that dryslot ruined it

[Allsnow]

Just now, forkyfork said:

that dryslot ruined it

Lol. I knew you would bring that up. We got 4-5 of heavy wet snow then it shut off. I’m still waiting for that 2-4 of wrap around snows 

[forkyfork]

9 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Lol. I knew you would bring that up. We got 4-5 of heavy wet snow then it shut off. I’m still waiting for that 2-4 of wrap around snows 

i woke up and it was pouring snow and kocin had us in the 12+ zone. ugh

[Allsnow]

6 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

i woke up and it was pouring snow and kocin had us in the 12+ zone. ugh

I remember looking at TWC radar and being concerned about the lack of precipitation by ACY. That’s just one of those storms that kept going west all the way till start time 

[uncle W]

5.5" as measured in Central Park but at least 0.5" was un reported because it snowed lightly after midnight until dawn...it should have been a 6" storm for the city...1999-2000 had one of the latest measurable snowfalls when the first one came on Jan. 20th...

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, uncle W said:

5.5" as measured in Central Park but at least 0.5" was un reported because it snowed lightly after midnight until dawn...it should have been a 6" storm for the city...1999-2000 had one of the latest measurable snowfalls when the first one came on Jan. 20th...

That was the last time that the East Coast got a surprise major snowstorm when the models didn’t have any snow just a day before.

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2010/01/major_snowstorm_ambushes_washi.html

[MJO812]

Feels like snow outside 

 

35 degrees 

[uncle W]

todays high of 36 is quite low for November 18th...the record is 33 last set in 1959...