November 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[bluewave]

The late November pattern looks similar to recent winters. Very fast Pacific flow and +EPO. The -AO blocking doesn’t look  strong enough to eliminate the SE Ridge as the +NAO vortex holds on. So the primary storm track will remain through the Great Lakes. Ridges persist over the warm Atlantic and Pacific SST band along 40N.

 

 

 

[Rtd208]

Picked up 0.08" of rain for the day yesterday.

Three day storm total 0.90"

[snowman19]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The late November pattern looks similar to recent winters. Very fast Pacific flow and +EPO. The -AO blocking doesn’t look  strong enough to eliminate the SE Ridge as the +NAO vortex holds on. So the primary storm track will remain through the Great Lakes. Ridges persist over the warm Atlantic and Pacific SST band along 40N.

 

 

 

Very flat Aleutian ridge, +EPO, +NAO, not good signs going into early December 

[bluewave]

Just now, snowman19 said:

Very flat Aleutian ridge, +EPO, +NAO, not good signs going into early December 

Very tough to get any extended cold with such a fast Pacific flow. Notice how we get cold for a few days following the Great Lakes lows. But the +EPO, +NAO, and SSTs allow a quick warm up and the SE Ridge flexes again. 

 

 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

Today will be mostly sunny but cool. High temperatures in the region will likely reach mainly the lower and middle 50s. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 52°

Newark: 54°

Philadelphia: 55°

A cold front will move across the region during the latter part of tomorrow afternoon or during the evening. The frontal passage could be marked by a squall line with thunder, a brief period of heavy rain and wind gusts in excess of 40 mph. Tuesday through Thursday will be unseasonably cold. 

[MJO812]

12 hours ago, JoshSnow said:

Gfs showing some blocking by the end of November and potentially getting a bit colder with some snow chances finally.

0z gfs has a snowstorm for the area but it's gone in the 6z GFS. The euro has a nice cold dump at 240. 

Maybe we can get lucky at the end of the month  

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The late November pattern looks similar to recent winters. Very fast Pacific flow and +EPO. The -AO blocking doesn’t look  strong enough to eliminate the SE Ridge as the +NAO vortex holds on. So the primary storm track will remain through the Great Lakes. Ridges persist over the warm Atlantic and Pacific SST band along 40N.

 

 

 

This isnt bad at all.  Just need the ridge in the east to relax a bit. 

[bluewave]

30 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This isnt bad at all.  Just need the ridge in the east to relax a bit. 

The SE Ridge has only relaxed for 3 out of the last 15 DJF met winter months. The 3 winter  months it hasn’t been a factor since the 15-16 winter were Dec 17, Feb 16, and Jan 16. We should probably develop a SE Ridge or WAR index like the other teleconnections since it has become such a dominant feature of our recent climate.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

This isnt bad at all.  Just need the ridge in the east to relax a bit. 

How is that a good look?  The EPO floodgates are wide open. All you are getting is Pacific maritime air, the NAO is positive to boot, even if it wasn’t and went negative with that PAC look, all it would do is bring down garbage Pacific air

[Brian5671]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

This isnt bad at all.  Just need the ridge in the east to relax a bit. 

No cold air anywhere though

[jm1220]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

This isnt bad at all.  Just need the ridge in the east to relax a bit. 

The trough over Alaska floods the US with Pacific air. Maybe it’ll be a little less of a torch? But certainly not below normal 

[jm1220]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

The late November pattern looks similar to recent winters. Very fast Pacific flow and +EPO. The -AO blocking doesn’t look  strong enough to eliminate the SE Ridge as the +NAO vortex holds on. So the primary storm track will remain through the Great Lakes. Ridges persist over the warm Atlantic and Pacific SST band along 40N.

 

 

 

So much for -AO typically meaning -NAO. The last few winters have done away with that correlation. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

48 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

So much for -AO typically meaning -NAO. The last few winters have done away with that correlation. 

Throw out the analogs. There are enough differences from the last two winters to offer some hope that we at least break the streak of no 6” or greater storms for the coast. The last two winters were epic fails south of the southern state.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

So much for -AO typically meaning -NAO. The last few winters have done away with that correlation. 

Yeah, we have seen several -AO/+NAO splits in recent years. This wasn’t the case for the 09-10 and 10-11 winters. Notice how much different the DJF winter SSTs have been since 13-14. Much warmer SSTs off the East Coast and a cold pool south of Greenland. 
 

 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, we have seen several -AO/+NAO splits in recent years. This wasn’t the case for the 09-10 and 10-11 winters. Notice how much different the DJF winter SSTs have been since 13-14. Much warmer SSTs off the East Coast and a cold pool south of Greenland. 
 

 

An AO/NAO disconnect isn’t going to help us with a PAC that looks like what the models are depicting in the long range now. You need both a very deeply negative AO and west-based -NAO to compensate for that disaster 

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

The SE Ridge has only relaxed for 3 out of the last 15 DJF met winter months. The 3 winter  months it hasn’t been a factor since the 15-16 winter were Dec 17, Feb 16, and Jan 16. We should probably develop a SE Ridge or WAR index like the other teleconnections since it has become such a dominant feature of our recent climate.

In the 15-16 winter we didn't have a SE Ridge in either Jan 16 or Feb 16?  Should've done better with snowfall than just the one HECS we got.

 

[LibertyBell]

9 hours ago, bluewave said:

Very tough to get any extended cold with such a fast Pacific flow. Notice how we get cold for a few days following the Great Lakes lows. But the +EPO, +NAO, and SSTs allow a quick warm up and the SE Ridge flexes again. 

 

 

This is the very familiar late 80s early 90s type pattern we've been getting the last few winters.

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

The SE Ridge has only relaxed for 3 out of the last 15 DJF met winter months. The 3 winter  months it hasn’t been a factor since the 15-16 winter were Dec 17, Feb 16, and Jan 16. We should probably develop a SE Ridge or WAR index like the other teleconnections since it has become such a dominant feature of our recent climate.

This is a very stable pattern and I would go so far as to say this is the dominant weather pattern for our area (the one that lasts the longest).  In all my years on the east coast that I can remember, going back to the early 80s.....this is the pattern that recurs more often than any other.

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Throw out the analogs. There are enough differences from the last two winters to offer some hope that we at least break the streak of no 6” or greater storms for the coast. The last two winters were epic fails south of the southern state.

Well in my experience not getting 6"+ snowstorms have happened in the majority of winters.

If you want to be optimistic, the best we can hope for is one big snowstorm for the winter and that's it.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

An AO/NAO disconnect isn’t going to help us with a PAC that looks like what the models are depicting in the long range now. You need both a very deeply negative AO and west-based -NAO to compensate for that disaster 

The funny thing about the PAC is with the string of bad winters we've had, you'd expect a city in the NW like Seattle to be cashing in, but they've been in a long term snow drought (much longer than ours.)

 

[the_other_guy]

3 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Throw out the analogs. There are enough differences from the last two winters to offer some hope that we at least break the streak of no 6” or greater storms for the coast. The last two winters were epic fails south of the southern state.

It’s not just southern Long Island.

My parents are in Queens and I’m their  snow shovel guy.

I haven’t lifted a snow shovel for them in 2 years.

Everything was either too small or melted in quick order

[the_other_guy]

16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

This is a very stable pattern and I would go so far as to say this is the dominant weather pattern for our area (the one that lasts the longest).  In all my years on the east coast that I can remember, going back to the early 80s.....this is the pattern that recurs more often than any other.

 

Good point. It is just happening with a much warmer regime now.

For a city that was always on a rain/snow line and never locked in wall to wall cold like a midwestern city, that is the death blow

The relentless big storm phenomenon was a recent addition, and now subtraction

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Good point. It is just happening with a much warmer regime now.

For a city that was always on a rain/snow line and never locked in wall to wall cold like a midwestern city, that is the death blow

The relentless big storm phenomenon was a recent addition, and now subtraction

6" snowfall might be a good dividing line.

I read in the Weather Almanac that NYC gets a 6" snowstorm in 50% of its winters and a 8" snowstorm in 33% of them.

 

[bluewave]

32 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

This is the very familiar late 80s early 90s type pattern we've been getting the last few winters.

The last 2 met winters were the first consecutive under 5” DJFs for NYC. After 09-10 to 17-18, I don’t think anyone would have made that bet. Just goes to show how extreme our climate has become.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Dec through Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Total Snowfall	Missing Count
1	1997-1998	0.5	0
2	1918-1919	1.1	0
3	1972-1973	2.6	0
4	1931-1932	2.7	0
5	1991-1992	3.2	0
6	2001-2002	3.5	0
7	2018-2019	3.7	0
8	2011-2012	4.5	0
9	2019-2020	4.8	0
10	1989-1990	5.0	0

[LibertyBell]

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The last 2 met winters were the first consecutive under 5” DJFs for NYC. After 09-10 to 17-18, I don’t think anyone would have made that bet. Just goes to show how extreme our climate has become.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Dec through Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Total Snowfall	Missing Count
1	1997-1998	0.5	0
2	1918-1919	1.1	0
3	1972-1973	2.6	0
4	1931-1932	2.7	0
5	1991-1992	3.2	0
6	2001-2002	3.5	0
7	2018-2019	3.7	0
8	2011-2012	4.5	0
9	2019-2020	4.8	0
10	1989-1990	5.0	0

Wasnt the period between 83-84 to about 91-92 much less snowy though?

Also what about 96-97 to about 99-00?

edit- in that list I see that 89-90 to 91-92 had 2/3 that were 5.0 or below.  I put that in the HOF of least snowiest because of how snowless the 70s and 80s generally were.

Also look at 97-98 to 01-02 which had 2 that were 3.5 or lower (that streak was broken up by 00-01 though which was a decent winter with the Millenium storm).

 

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Wasnt the period between 83-84 to about 91-92 much less snowy though?

Also what about 96-97 to about 99-00?

 

Only 79-80, 88-89, and 89-90 finished DJF with single digits. During the 90s it was 91-92, 96-97 , 97-98, and 98-99.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Dec through Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Season	Total Snowfall	Missing Count
1979-1980	8.2	0
1980-1981	10.8	0
1981-1982	14.3	0
1982-1983	26.4	0
1983-1984	13.5	0
1984-1985	23.9	0
1985-1986	13.0	1
1986-1987	21.2	0
1987-1988	18.0	0
1988-1989	5.6	0
1989-1990	5.0	0

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Dec through Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Season	Total Snowfall	Missing Count
1990-1991	24.7	0
1991-1992	3.2	0
1992-1993	12.6	0
1993-1994	45.3	0
1994-1995	11.8	0
1995-1996	58.8	0
1996-1997	8.2	0
1997-1998	0.5	0
1998-1999	8.2	0
1999-2000	14.7	0

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Only 79-80, 88-89, and 89-90 finished DJF with single digits.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Dec through Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Season	Total Snowfall	Missing Count
1979-1980	8.2	0
1980-1981	10.8	0
1981-1982	14.3	0
1982-1983	26.4	0
1983-1984	13.5	0
1984-1985	23.9	0
1985-1986	13.0	1
1986-1987	21.2	0
1987-1988	18.0	0
1988-1989	5.6	0
1989-1990	5.0	0

Chris, what about 91-92?  It was in your list (and pretty high up!) in the previous post.

 

[bluewave]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

Chris, what about 91-92?  It was in your list (and pretty high up!) in the previous post.

 

I added it.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Only 79-80, 88-89, and 89-90 finished DJF with single digits.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Dec through Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Season	Total Snowfall	Missing Count
1979-1980	8.2	0
1980-1981	10.8	0
1981-1982	14.3	0
1982-1983	26.4	0
1983-1984	13.5	0
1984-1985	23.9	0
1985-1986	13.0	1
1986-1987	21.2	0
1987-1988	18.0	0
1988-1989	5.6	0
1989-1990	5.0	0

so wow I do have the right to brag that when I was in HS I experienced the least snowy period in NYC history..... 88-89, 89-90 and 91-92 all had 5.6 or less inches of snow!  I wonder what happened to 90-91, how much in that season Chris?

 

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

so wow I do have the right to brag that when I was in HS I experienced the least snowy period in NYC history..... 88-89, 89-90 and 91-92 all had 5.6 or less inches of snow!  I wonder what happened to 90-91, how much in that season Chris?

 

The big low snowfall record left for NYC is a DJF or full snowfall season T.  On the high side, NYC still hasn’t seen a 50” single storm in the modern era. A 10” in one hour would be another snowfall extreme we are yet to see. We should take bets on which of those 3 happens first.