November 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

Today will be partly sunny and still warm. High temperatures in the region will likely reach mainly lower 70s. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 72°

Newark: 74°

Philadelphia: 74°

Later this week, cooler but not unseasonably cold air could arrive. As some moisture from the slow-moving Eta gets drawn northward along an approaching frontal system , the region could experience a moderate to significant rainfall later Wednesday through Thursday.

 

[Brian5671]

43 here no fog so off to the races again today

[bluewave]

This is the first time that I can remember so many daily record highs with strong radiational cooling at night. It resulted in the departures being driven by the high temperatures by an unusually wide margin. So the average departures this month are lower than you would expect with so many record high temperatures.

EWR....max....+7.8....min...+0.7....avg....+4.2

NYC...............+6.5..............+3.8...............+5.1

LGA................+7.8.............+4.1...............+6.0

JFK................+5.7..............+0.1..............+2.8

ISP.................+6.9..............+1.5...............+4.2

HPN...............+7.5.............+1.5...............+4.5

POU...............+7.9.............+1.6...............+4.8

ACY................+7.7............+0.8...............+4.2

[IrishRob17]

14 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Impressive diurnal swings for sure.  Must be even more impressive in the center of the island, but here's the last 3 days at my hacienda about a mile from the sound:

11/7   43    76

11/8   44    77

11/9   42    77

This afternoon's 77 degree high a couple of hours ago is already down to 59 here.  You can be sweating and then a half hour later around sunset be freezing.

Agreed, here's the range for up here over those days:

11/7   39   77

11/8   37   75

11/9   34   77

Only got down tp 40 for a low this morning so it won't be as impressive.

[rclab]

11 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Agreed, here's the range for up here over those days:

11/7   39   77

11/8   37   75

11/9   34   77

Only got down tp 40 for a low this morning so it won't be as impressive.

Good morning I R. So now we end up with a complimentary SHI, Suburban Heat Island Effect? As always .....

[dWave]

hazy sun 66,  low was only 60

[nycwinter]

actually wore a jacket open today.... that is how warm it feels....

[donsutherland1]

At 11 am, the temperature at Caribou, ME was 71°. That surpassed the monthly record of 69°, which was set just yesterday. This is Caribou's latest 70° or above temperature on record. The previous latest such reading occurred on October 30, 1989 when the temperature reached 70°.

[rclab]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

At 11 am, the temperature at Caribou, ME was 71°. That surpassed the monthly record of 69°, which was set just yesterday. This is Caribou's latest 70° or above temperature on record. The previous latest such reading occurred on October 30, 1989 when the temperature reached 70°.

In the near/distant(?)future, when the.climate of the former location of Portland matches that of the present BWI I wonder what Caribou will be like? As always...... 

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

At 11 am, the temperature at Caribou, ME was 71°. That surpassed the monthly record of 69°, which was set just yesterday. This is Caribou's latest 70° or above temperature on record. The previous latest such reading occurred on October 30, 1989 when the temperature reached 70°.

A more extreme November monthly maximum temperature on the latest update. So far the record high of 75° is 7 degrees warmer than the record set just last year.

 

Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) - Month of Nov
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	2020	75	21
2	2019	68	0
-	1956	68	0
3	1982	67	0
-	1953	67	0

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

A more extreme November monthly maximum temperature on the latest update. So far the record high of 75° is 7 degrees warmer than the record set just last year.

 

Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) - Month of Nov
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	2020	75	21
2	2019	68	0
-	1956	68	0
3	1982	67	0
-	1953	67	0

some would say all this heat is a good thing, saving on heating costs and we can do a lot of work outside

 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, rclab said:

In the near/distant(?)future, when the.climate of the former location of Portland matches that of the present BWI I wonder what Caribou will be like? As always...... 

and having  a hurricane season that lasts all year, like what the fire season is evolving into

the word "season" will have an entirely different meaning within our lifetimes

 

[BucksCO_PA]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

A more extreme November monthly maximum temperature on the latest update. So far the record high of 75° is 7 degrees warmer than the record set just last year.

 

Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) - Month of Nov
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	2020	75	21
2	2019	68	0
-	1956	68	0
3	1982	67	0
-	1953	67	0

75 degrees is average high temp for Jacksonville, FL today.

[donsutherland1]

Today featured plentiful sunshine with record-breaking warmth. Caribou hit 75°, which smashed the November record just established yesterday by 6°. That was the latest 70° temperature on record there. The previous mark was October 30, 1989 when the temperature reached 70°. The previous latest 75° temperature was October 28, 1947. Central Park also reached 70° or above for a November record-tying fifth consecutive day and Newark extended its record to six consecutive days.

High temperatures included:

Allentown: 75° (old record: 70°, 1931 and 2002)
Baltimore: 78° (old record: 75°, 1995)
Bangor: 72° (old record: 68°, 1931)
Binghamton: 71° (old record: 65°, 1975)
Boston: 75°
Bridgeport: 70° (old record: 69°, 1977)
Buffalo: 77° (old record: 69°, 1975)
Burlington: 72°
Caribou: 75° (old record: 63°, 1948) ***New November Record***
Chibougamau, Quebec: 60° (old record: 53°, 1966)
Chicago: 75° (old record: 71°, 1949)
Cleveland: 76° (old record: 71°, 1998)
Concord: 76° (old record: 73°, 1931)
Detroit: 77° (old record: 68°, 1999)
Fredericton, New Brunswick: 74° (old record: 65°, 1931) ***New November Record***
Harrisburg: 76° (old record: 73°, 1888)
Hartford: 77° (old record: 76°, 1931)
Milwaukee: 74° (old record: 66°, 2016)
Montreal: 72° (old record: 65°, 1948 and 1966) ***New November Record***
New York City-LGA: 75° (tied record set in 1999)
New York City-NYC: 74° (old record: 73°, 1985)
Newark: 76° (old record: 73°, 1966, 1985 and 1999)
Ottawa: 74° (old record: 66°, 1948)
Philadelphia: 76° (old record: 73°, 1999)
Pittsburgh: 76° (old record: 73°, 1939)
Poughkeepsie: 76°
Providence: 74° (old record: 73°, 1999)
Quebec City: 69° (old record: 63°, 1948)
Rochester: 78° (old record: 72°, 1939, 1949 and 1975)
Rockford, IL: 74° (old record: 70°, 2010)
Scranton: 76° (old record: 73°, 1948)
Syracuse: 78° (old record: 74°, 1931)
Toledo: 80° (old record: 68°, 1949 and 1999) ***Tied November Record***
Toronto: 75° (old record: 64°, 1975)
Washington, DC: 76° (tied record set in 1999)
White Plains: 72° (old record: 70°, 1985 and 1999)

The region could experience a moderate to significant rainfall during tomorrow into Thursday as some moisture from Eta could be drawn northward along a slowly advancing cold front. In the wake of the frontal passage, readings will become cooler, but remain somewhat warmer than normal. Overall, the above normal temperatures will likely continue until at least near mid-November. The second half of November is likely to wind up warmer than normal, even as it could start with near normal to below normal temperatures.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.5°C for the week centered around November 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.02°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.38°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at through the winter.

The SOI was +3.62.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.717.

On November 9 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.004 (RMM). The November 8-adjusted amplitude was 0.989.

Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is likely for winter 2020-21. It is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with potentially below normal snowfall. The November run of the seasonal European guidance suggests that winter 2020-21 will likely be warmer to much warmer than normal in the region.

The potential also exists for below to much below normal seasonal snowfall in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Since 1970, there were 9 winters that saw the AO and EPO average +0.25 or above. Mean snowfall for Boston, Harrisburg, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC averaged 50% of the most recent 30-season mean. The largest snowfall deficits relative to the most recent 30-season mean figure were located in the Philadelphia to New York City corridor. In addition, 33% of cases saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City and 44% saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in Philadelphia.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 83% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November. November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 51.0°.

 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, BucksCO_PA said:

75 degrees is average high temp for Jacksonville, FL today.

A November beach day in the Canadian Maritimes with the all-time warmth.

 

 

 

[doncat]

Record high here again today at 74°.

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, JoshSnow said:

When is this nightmare over? I mean it’s beautiful it’s hot but I’m ready for snow! Blue wave anything in sight?

No 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 53degs.[48/58].        Making it 48degs., or just about Normal.

Month to date is 57.2[+6.3].       Should be about 53.1[+4.0] by the 19th.

Rain threats on all models seem to have collapsed in half thru. Mon. PM:    EURO 1.3",   GFS 1.1",  CMC 0.9".         More emphasis on some BN T's----but GFS still has 7 60-Degree Days in the next 15.

Tropics:   25.0N  84.2W---running N well off west side of Fl.     Hits Panhandle Saturday?              29.5N  34.8W---nowhere man.

63*(95%RH) here at 6am, overcast.       65* by 9am.      68* by Noon.       63* by 3pm.

[Allsnow]

Eps trending warmer after a brief cold shot for the weekend before thanksgiving. I could see another run of 60’s 70’s for the northeast 

[bluewave]

On track for a record 7 consecutive days reaching 70° at Newark. The previous record for November was 4 days. It looks like we are shifting to more of a less warm is the new cool mode. Still above average, but no 70s showing up after today for the near future. Maybe some cooler weather in about a week.
 

2020-11-05	70
2020-11-06	73
2020-11-07	77
2020-11-08	77
2020-11-09	77
2020-11-10	76

 

KEWR   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE  11/11/2020  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192      
 WED  11| THU 12| FRI 13| SAT 14| SUN 15| MON 16| TUE 17| WED 18 CLIMO
 X/N  75| 57  61| 49  58| 41  56| 40  57| 46  61| 37  50| 34  46 38 53

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

At 7:50 am, a cold front stretched from the Florida Panhandle to southern Quebec. Areas of moderate to heavy rain were associated with that front. That front will move eastward bringing periods of rain to the region, especially this afternoon and tonight. An area that includes Philadelphia, Newark and New York City will likely pick up 1.00”-2.00” rain. South and east of there, from Washington, DC to southern New Jersey, 1.50”-3.00” rain with locally higher amounts is likely. North and west of Philadelphia to New York City, lesser amounts of rain are likely. High temperatures in the region will likely reach mainly the upper 60s and lower 70s. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 70°

Newark: 73°

Philadelphia: 73°

Tomorrow will turn cooler.

[LibertyBell]

13 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Today featured plentiful sunshine with record-breaking warmth. Caribou hit 75°, which smashed the November record just established yesterday by 6°. That was the latest 70° temperature on record there. The previous mark was October 30, 1989 when the temperature reached 70°. The previous latest 75° temperature was October 28, 1947. Central Park also reached 70° or above for a November record-tying fifth consecutive day and Newark extended its record to six consecutive days.

High temperatures included:

Allentown: 75° (old record: 70°, 1931 and 2002)
Baltimore: 78° (old record: 75°, 1995)
Bangor: 72° (old record: 68°, 1931)
Binghamton: 71° (old record: 65°, 1975)
Boston: 75°
Bridgeport: 70° (old record: 69°, 1977)
Buffalo: 77° (old record: 69°, 1975)
Burlington: 72°
Caribou: 75° (old record: 63°, 1948) ***New November Record***
Chibougamau, Quebec: 60° (old record: 53°, 1966)
Chicago: 75° (old record: 71°, 1949)
Cleveland: 76° (old record: 71°, 1998)
Concord: 76° (old record: 73°, 1931)
Detroit: 77° (old record: 68°, 1999)
Fredericton, New Brunswick: 74° (old record: 65°, 1931) ***New November Record***
Harrisburg: 76° (old record: 73°, 1888)
Hartford: 77° (old record: 76°, 1931)
Milwaukee: 74° (old record: 66°, 2016)
Montreal: 72° (old record: 65°, 1948 and 1966) ***New November Record***
New York City-LGA: 75° (tied record set in 1999)
New York City-NYC: 74° (old record: 73°, 1985)
Newark: 76° (old record: 73°, 1966, 1985 and 1999)
Ottawa: 74° (old record: 66°, 1948)
Philadelphia: 76° (old record: 73°, 1999)
Pittsburgh: 76° (old record: 73°, 1939)
Poughkeepsie: 76°
Providence: 74° (old record: 73°, 1999)
Quebec City: 69° (old record: 63°, 1948)
Rochester: 78° (old record: 72°, 1939, 1949 and 1975)
Rockford, IL: 74° (old record: 70°, 2010)
Scranton: 76° (old record: 73°, 1948)
Syracuse: 78° (old record: 74°, 1931)
Toledo: 80° (old record: 68°, 1949 and 1999) ***Tied November Record***
Toronto: 75° (old record: 64°, 1975)
Washington, DC: 76° (tied record set in 1999)
White Plains: 72° (old record: 70°, 1985 and 1999)

The region could experience a moderate to significant rainfall during tomorrow into Thursday as some moisture from Eta could be drawn northward along a slowly advancing cold front. In the wake of the frontal passage, readings will become cooler, but remain somewhat warmer than normal. Overall, the above normal temperatures will likely continue until at least near mid-November. The second half of November is likely to wind up warmer than normal, even as it could start with near normal to below normal temperatures.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.5°C for the week centered around November 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.02°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.38°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at through the winter.

The SOI was +3.62.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.717.

On November 9 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.004 (RMM). The November 8-adjusted amplitude was 0.989.

Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is likely for winter 2020-21. It is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with potentially below normal snowfall. The November run of the seasonal European guidance suggests that winter 2020-21 will likely be warmer to much warmer than normal in the region.

The potential also exists for below to much below normal seasonal snowfall in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Since 1970, there were 9 winters that saw the AO and EPO average +0.25 or above. Mean snowfall for Boston, Harrisburg, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC averaged 50% of the most recent 30-season mean. The largest snowfall deficits relative to the most recent 30-season mean figure were located in the Philadelphia to New York City corridor. In addition, 33% of cases saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City and 44% saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in Philadelphia.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 83% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November. November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 51.0°.

 

Don I noted you didn't list JFK above, did they not hit 70 yesterday?  I thought they did.

 

[IrishRob17]

22 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Don I noted you didn't list JFK above, did they not hit 70 yesterday?  I thought they did.

 

https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KJFK.html

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KJFK.html

Thanks!  It looks like they hit 73 yesterday.  I had to get used to the format, as the most recent readings are listed at the top lol.

Something else I noticed, a lot of the records for yesterday are from 1999 and that's one of the analogs for the upcoming winter.

 

[donsutherland1]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Don I noted you didn't list JFK above, did they not hit 70 yesterday?  I thought they did.

 

The high was 69 at JFK.

[donsutherland1]

At 12 pm, temperatures around the region included:

Bridgeport: 65°
Islip: 67°
New York City: 72°
Newark: 72°
Poughkeepsie: 70°
White Plains: 66°

New York City (Central Park) has now set a new record of 6 consecutive November days on which the temperature reached 70° or above. The old record was 5 days, which was set during November 3-7, 2015.

Newark extended its November record of 70° or above readings to 7 consecutive days. Prior to 2020, the latest-season stretch of 7 or more 70° days occurred during October 24-30, 1989.

[the_other_guy]

I have been out of town since last week.

Arrived to peak leaves in the city. Spectacular color. I am surprised no one has mentioned it between the November doom and gloom

[psv88]

Leaves came off the trees in a hurry this week, all of sudden trees are mostly bare, even the oaks. 

[SnoSki14]

Think maybe the MJOs current favorable passage could set the stage for a more prolonged cooler spell. 

Of course the EPS could easily flip next run. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

55 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Leaves came off the trees in a hurry this week, all of sudden trees are mostly bare, even the oaks. 

We actually had some cool weather in October this year, which we didn’t have in last years. That really pushed everything forward. Even in the city trees are dropping quick.