November 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[rclab]

15 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Under brilliant sunshine, the temperature soared into the lower and middle 50s this afternoon across the New York City area. Three photos from the New York Botanical Garden from this afternoon:

Don magnificent photos. The lady Cardinal is picture postcard quality. As always .....

[donsutherland1]

43 minutes ago, rclab said:

Don magnificent photos. The lady Cardinal is picture postcard quality. As always .....

Thanks for the kind words.

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow a storm could bring moderate to perhaps heavy rainfall up the East Coast. Following the storm, the Southeast could see unseasonably cool temperatures. The core of this colder air will likely stay south of the region, but somewhat below normal to near normal readings are likely in parts of the Middle Atlantic area. Meanwhile, there are now early hints that an extended duration much warmer than normal regime will begin to develop in parts of western Canada starting during the first half of this week.

Overall, December could start off mild before that period of cooler than normal to near normal temperatures commences. This cooler period could still give way to warmer readings at some point during the second week of December, but there is is still uncertainty. The development of a AO-/PNA+ pattern has shifted the outlook toward colder temperatures during the first half of December (consistent with statistical guidance). Exceptional cold is unlikely. The duration of the AO-/PNA+ pattern could delay any warmup until near mid-month.

Statistical guidance based on the ENSO state and teleconnections would typically favor a colder regime for the first half of December. Both historic experience following exceptionally warm November cases and the latest weekly and monthly guidance suggest that a warmer than normal December remains the base case even if the first half of the month winds up colder than normal. Almost 90% of cases with a November mean temperature of 51.5° or above in Central Park went on to record a warmer than normal December and just over three-quarters of such cases saw December register a monthly mean temperature of 40.0° or above.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.5°C for the week centered around November 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.42°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through the winter.

The SOI was +19.40.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.026.

On November 28 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.882 (RMM). The November 27-adjusted amplitude was 1.004.

Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely through the first week of December. Some warming above 2 mb is likely toward the end of that timeframe on account of Wave 1 activity.  

Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 10/11 (91%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is very likely for winter 2020-21. It is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with below normal snowfall.

Since 1950, there have been four La Niña winters that started with a warm December in the Northeast and warmth across much of Canada, as is the current forecast on the monthly EPS, latest weekly EPS and latest CFSv2 monthly guidance: 1974-75, 1998-99, 1999-00, and 2011-12. All featured a warmer than normal winter and among the winter months that followed December, only January 2000 was colder than normal in the East. Median seasonal snowfall figures were as follows: New York City: 12.9" and Philadelphia: 13.1".

Since 1970, there were 9 winters that saw the AO and EPO average +0.25 or above. Mean snowfall for Boston, Harrisburg, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC averaged 50% of the most recent 30-season mean. The largest snowfall deficits relative to the most recent 30-season mean figure were located in the Philadelphia to New York City corridor. In addition, 33% of cases saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City and 44% saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in Philadelphia.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November. November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 52.9° (the warmest November on record).

 

[Allsnow]

@donsutherland1 where does November rank for the other major climate zones in the northeast? Orh,bos, and phl 

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

@donsutherland1 where does November rank for the other major climate zones in the northeast? Orh,bos, and phl 

Through yesterday: Baltimore: 3rd warmest; Boston: 16th warmest; Philadelphia: 5th warmest; Washington, DC: 2nd warmest; and, Worcester: 3rd warmest.

[Jacob brooklyn]

I am noticing something here in Brooklyn past two years or so that some trees still have all their leaves. Of course they have turned but they did not shed their leaves fully yet. If you go by the trees being an indicator this late in the season. I thought that was interesting. Maybe that is normal Dont know. But can mean later start to winter.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

6 hours ago, Jacob brooklyn said:

I am noticing something here in Brooklyn past two years or so that some trees still have all their leaves. Of course they have turned but they did not shed their leaves fully yet. If you go by the trees being an indicator this late in the season. I thought that was interesting. Maybe that is normal Dont know. But can mean later start to winter.

Depends on the type of tree. The city planted tons of pears as replacements over the years and they hold their leaves extremely late, sometimes till Christmas. Almost all native species have lost their leaves with the exception of some oaks. If anything this years leaf drop was earlier then the past few as we had the cool shot in late October. 

[CIK62]

The last day of November is averaging 55degs.(48/62).         Making it 54degs.

Month to date is 52.8[+4.9].          November should end in a tie for 1st. Place at 52.8[+5.1].

55*(86%RH) here at 6am.       56* and raining by 8am.      59* from Noon to 2pm.       Reached 61* at 6:30pm.       58* by 10pm.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

Over the next 24 hours, a storm will track toward Lake Ontario and into Canada. Rain associated with that storm is already spreading northward through southeastern New York State and southwestern Connecticut. Today will see periods of rain, some of which will be heavy. A general 0.50”-1.50” rainfall with locally higher amounts is likely by the time the rain tapers to showers this afternoon or evening. The temperature will rise into the lower and even middle 60s on account of a strong push of warm air. The wind will likely gust past 50 mph. A thunderstorm is possible. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 64°

Newark: 64°

Philadelphia: 66°

In the wake of the storm, the tomorrow will be windy and cooler. The temperature could fall during the afternoon hours. In the Ohio Valley, parts of Ohio could see 4”-8” snow with locally higher amounts. Accumulating snow could extent into eastern Michigan, as well as western Ontario.

[bluewave]

NYC tied for warmest November with a day to go.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Nov
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2020	52.8	1
-	2015	52.8	0
2	2001	52.7	0
3	1979	52.5	0
4	1948	52.4	0
5	1975	52.3	0

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Nov
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2015	52.0	0
-	1994	52.0	0
3	2001	51.9	0
	1979	51.7	0
-	1975	51.7	0
4	2020	51.4	1
5	2006	51.3	0

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Nov
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2020	54.2	1
2	2001	53.5	0
3	2006	53.4	0
4	2015	53.3	0
5	1975	52.6	0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Nov
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2015	49.9	0
2	2011	49.8	0
3	2006	49.7	0
4	2020	49.3	1
-	1994	49.3	0
-	1975	49.3	0

[Jacob brooklyn]

4 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Depends on the type of tree. The city planted tons of pears as replacements over the years and they hold their leaves extremely late, sometimes till Christmas. Almost all native species have lost their leaves with the exception of some oaks. If anything this years leaf drop was earlier then the past few as we had the cool shot in late October. 

Yes and we have had a lot if high wind events today not so much. But pears replacements? What is that exactly? That's an interesting fact that they have leaves up until cristmas

[the_other_guy]

2 hours ago, Jacob brooklyn said:

Yes and we have had a lot if high wind events today not so much. But pears replacements? What is that exactly? That's an interesting fact that they have leaves up until cristmas

The city got rid of a lot of the native trees on the street (according to my cousin who works in the Parks Dept) Because they were susceptible to the Asian Long Horned Beetle.

But let’s face it, with the warm overnights, the city (not so much surrounding area yet) is in a different climate zone then it was 30 years ago. That is a huge reason for leaves hanging on in the concrete jungle

[coastalplainsnowman]

Yeah, Bradford Pears have been the tree of choice in Nassau, especially on utility strips the last 20 or so years.  I got one about 15 years ago, and every year I am annoyed by the fact that it holds about 25% of its leaves til about the third week of december.  I'm looking at it right now.  I should've planted an oak.

Side note - suburban long island has such a different look now compared to 40 years ago.  As all the old oaks, even big maples and sycamores fall / get cut down they are almost never replaced like for like.  Everything looks increasingly like strip mall landscape with the same small trees like bradford pears, chokecherry, etc.   I hate to think of what things will look like in another 30 years.

[Rtd208]

Wind Advisory was extended to include my area few hours ago until 6 pm.

Picked up 0.93" of rain so far today.

Current temp 61

[donsutherland1]

A short video clip from early this afternoon:

 

[Jacob brooklyn]

2 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

The city got rid of a lot of the native trees on the street (according to my cousin who works in the Parks Dept) Because they were susceptible to the Asian Long Horned Beetle.

But let’s face it, with the warm overnights, the city (not so much surrounding area yet) is in a different climate zone then it was 30 years ago. That is a huge reason for leaves hanging on in the concrete jungle

I see.  makes sense. How much different reaally is it than just 30 years ago?

[LibertyBell]

On 11/28/2020 at 8:26 AM, bluewave said:

The 53.1° average November temperature in NYC is normal for South Carolina.

Monthly Climate Normals (1981-2010) - GRNVL SPART INTL AP, SC

November	52.4

 

Chris, are we going to make the record for the warmest November on record?

 

[the_other_guy]

64F at night on November 30. I sure as heck hope we hit the warmest ever because this level and depth of warmth is just unprecedented.

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

Yeah, Bradford Pears have been the tree of choice in Nassau, especially on utility strips the last 20 or so years.  I got one about 15 years ago, and every year I am annoyed by the fact that it holds about 25% of its leaves til about the third week of december.  I'm looking at it right now.  I should've planted an oak.

Side note - suburban long island has such a different look now compared to 40 years ago.  As all the old oaks, even big maples and sycamores fall / get cut down they are almost never replaced like for like.  Everything looks increasingly like strip mall landscape with the same small trees like bradford pears, chokecherry, etc.   I hate to think of what things will look like in another 30 years.

we need some sort of national park on Long Island where trees dont get cut.

we do have some state parks.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, jfklganyc said:

64F at night on November 30. I sure as heck hope we hit the warmest ever because this level and depth of warmth is just unprecedented.

is that the high for the day?

 

[the_other_guy]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

is that the high for the day?

 

At my house it is. 

[bluewave]

On 11/17/2020 at 9:44 AM, bluewave said:

This has to have been the hardest decade on record for trees around the region. It seems to have started out with the March 2010 windstorm. This was followed by the NYC macroburst and tornado in September 2010. Next was the early snowstorm in October 2011 which lead to all the power outages. Irene came next in August 2011 followed by  Sandy in October 2012. Then the numerous blizzards with downed trees at times from 2013 to 2018. Along with the fall and spring storms with high wind warnings. Out of season severe in recent years like this fall and also 2018. We also saw that bow echo in June 2019 take down numerous trees across Suffolk. Isaias caused the extensive tree damage and power outages this summer.

 

On 11/17/2020 at 10:26 AM, bluewave said:

The tree loss was especially difficult for places like Long Beach that got the saltwater damage during Sandy. I almost didn’t recognize certain blocks with all the sycamores that had to be taken down. We lost a big sycamore here in SW Suffolk during Isaias in addition to many other trees. Preventative removal of damaged and weak trees has become a big business here. It’s really interesting to watch how the professional tree crews take down large trees  close to houses. They make it look so easy.

People will probably replant smaller ornamentals that have less chance of damaging their homes in our more extreme climate.

[forkyfork]

there are better options than an invasive species that splits apart easily

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

The city got rid of a lot of the native trees on the street (according to my cousin who works in the Parks Dept) Because they were susceptible to the Asian Long Horned Beetle.

But let’s face it, with the warm overnights, the city (not so much surrounding area yet) is in a different climate zone then it was 30 years ago. That is a huge reason for leaves hanging on in the concrete jungle

why cant they just kill off the beetles?

 

[etudiant]

Think the problem is the larvae chew out the trees from the inside, so they are hard to reach.

I don't think the adults do much eating, they focus on reproduction, so killing them requires a species specific virus or a very selective contact poison. Those are hard to come by.

 

[donsutherland1]

New York City is concluding its warmest November on record. The temperature soared into the 60s today as a storm continued to push northward to the west of the region. With a high temperature of 63°, Central Park pushed its monthly mean temperature to 52.9°. The previous record was 52.8°, which was set in 2015. Records go back to 1869.

High Temperatures and rainfall amounts through 7 pm for select sites were:

Allentown: 61°; 2.72" (old record: 1.05", 2016)
Atlantic City: 65°; 1.43"
Boston: 59°; 0.40"
Bridgeport: 63°; 0.93"
Islip: 63°; 0.83"
New York City: 63°; 0.96"
Newark: 65°; 1.08"
Philadelphia: 67°; 0.98"
Poughkeepsie: 66°; 0.94"

December will start off mild before a period of cooler than normal to near normal temperatures commences. This cooler period could still give way to warmer readings at some point during the second week of December following a fairly sharp cold shot, but there is considerable uncertainty about the timing of this change. The development of a AO-/PNA+ pattern has shifted the outlook toward colder temperatures during the first half of December (consistent with statistical guidance). Exceptional cold is unlikely. The duration of the AO-/PNA+ pattern could delay any warmup until near mid-month.

An extended duration much warmer than normal regime will begin to develop in parts of western Canada starting during the first half of this week. Wednesday and Thursday could see record high temperatures in that region.

Statistical guidance based on the ENSO state and teleconnections would typically favor a colder regime for the first half of December. Both historic experience following exceptionally warm November cases and the latest weekly and monthly guidance suggest that a warmer than normal December remains the base case even if the first half of the month winds up colder than normal. Almost 90% of cases with a November mean temperature of 51.5° or above in Central Park went on to record a warmer than normal December and just over three-quarters of such cases saw December register a monthly mean temperature of 40.0° or above.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around November 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.40°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through the winter.

The SOI was +28.18.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.115.

On November 29 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.860 (RMM). The November 28-adjusted amplitude was 0.888.

Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely through the middle of the second week of December. Some warming above 2 mb is likely toward the latter part of the first week of December on account of Wave 1 activity.  

Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 10/11 (91%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is very likely for winter 2020-21. It is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with below normal snowfall.

Since 1970, there were 9 winters that saw the AO and EPO average +0.25 or above. Mean snowfall for Boston, Harrisburg, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC averaged 50% of the most recent 30-season mean. The largest snowfall deficits relative to the most recent 30-season mean figure were located in the Philadelphia to New York City corridor. In addition, 33% of cases saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City and 44% saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in Philadelphia.

Finally, on November 30, 1842 an early-season snowstorm blanketed parts of the East Coast. The heaviest snows were focused on portions on Middle Atlantic region, with perhaps the heaviest snows falling in Virginia, Maryland and Pennsylvania. Parts of that area received more than a foot of snow.

 

[LibertyBell]

We got the record, YES!

 

[SnoSki14]

19 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

We got the record, YES!

 

Our inevitable descent into climate catastrophe continues.

[Rtd208]

Picked up 1.05" of rain for the day.

Current temp 59

[bluewave]

It only took NYC 5 years to beat 2015 for warmest November. It took 14 years for 2015 to surpass 2001. And 2001 over 20 years to go ahead of 1979. 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Nov
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2020	53.0	0
2	2015	52.8	0
3	2001	52.7	0
4	1979	52.5	0
5	1948	52.4	0
6	1975	52.3	0
7	2011	51.9	0
-	2006	51.9	0
-	1994	51.9	0
-	1931	51.9	0
8	1902	51.4	0
9	2009	51.1	0
10	1999	50.8	0