November 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[FPizz]

18 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Leaves are completely down here now after Sunday nights wind storm. Definitely a few weeks earlier then normal for central nj

Yeah, besides the Oaks holding on a little longer, there have been no leaves on tree's for about a week, and the wind took care of what was left.  

37 with a little drizzle.  Was hoping to see a flake, but no flake for me!

[uncle W]

17 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Leaves are completely down here now after Sunday nights wind storm. Definitely a few weeks earlier then normal for central nj

I remember back in 1975 some trees is Brooklyn were still green with all their leaves...1975 had a late October freeze and warm first half of November like this year...precipitation looks pretty even for the fall this year and 1975...

 

[psv88]

25 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This has to have been the hardest decade on record for trees around the region. It seems to have started out with the March 2010 windstorm. This was followed by the NYC macroburst and tornado in September 2010. Next was the early snowstorm in October 2011 which lead to all the power outages. Irene came next in August 2011 followed by  Sandy in October 2012. Then the numerous blizzards with downed trees at times from 2013 to 2018. Along with the fall and spring storms with high wind warnings. Out of season severe in recent years like this fall and also 2018. We also saw that bow echo in June 2019 take down numerous trees across Suffolk. Isaias caused the extensive tree damage and power outages this summer.

Yea, my neighborhood has been decimated. I would estimate we lost a quarter the trees here in the past decade. Trees in residential areas are more exposed than those in a forest and therefore fall much more easily. But my local area was crushed with Sandy, the 2019 microburst and Isaias, maybe this area wasn't mean to have exposed trees outside of thick forests, or the variety of maples, sycamores, etc that come down so easily.

[STORMANLI]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

Are you in commack as well?

Yes, would say southern part.

[psv88]

1 minute ago, STORMANLI said:

Yes, would say southern part.

Nice. I am just south of Jericho, so i would say more central. 

[bluewave]

23 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Yea, my neighborhood has been decimated. I would estimate we lost a quarter the trees here in the past decade. Trees in residential areas are more exposed than those in a forest and therefore fall much more easily. But my local area was crushed with Sandy, the 2019 microburst and Isaias, maybe this area wasn't mean to have exposed trees outside of thick forests, or the variety of maples, sycamores, etc that come down so easily.

The tree loss was especially difficult for places like Long Beach that got the saltwater damage during Sandy. I almost didn’t recognize certain blocks with all the sycamores that had to be taken down. We lost a big sycamore here in SW Suffolk during Isaias in addition to many other trees. Preventative removal of damaged and weak trees has become a big business here. It’s really interesting to watch how the professional tree crews take down large trees  close to houses. They make it look so easy.

[STORMANLI]

51 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Nice. I am just south of Jericho, so i would say more central. 

North of Library.

[psv88]

3 minutes ago, STORMANLI said:

North of Library.

Oh nice. We are probably in the same neighborhood...im about a mile north of the library

[CIK62]

Cold air is locked out of the lower 48 from Nov. 25---Dec.03+?.        We could sneak in a BN day near the Nov. 29 or 30th.

Nov. 20-23 looks like a solid +5 period.     Nov. 24-30, near Normal but a +Bias.      Around the 28th, 29th some record high T's should occur in the Dakotas and Minnesota----+30 indicated.

GEFS has a 24-hour stretch of 60+ on, or just after Thanksgiving.        Really looks like Week 3 of December before any sustained BN can set up.

[Ericjcrash]

Pretty sure I just had a few pathetic flakes/pellets in queens.

[forkyfork]

hopefully we get some tree replacement. we could use them

[jm1220]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

The tree loss was especially difficult for places like Long Beach that got the saltwater damage during Sandy. I almost didn’t recognize certain blocks with all the sycamores that had to be taken down. We lost a big sycamore here in SW Suffolk during Isaias in addition to many other trees. Preventative removal of damaged and weak trees has become a big business here. It’s really interesting to watch how the professional tree crews take down large trees  close to houses. They make it look so easy.

Yup, areas of Long Beach that flooded in Sandy are essentially devoid of big trees now. The salt/chemicals/gasoline etc killed them. My neighborhood now was hit pretty hard in Isaias, lots of trees down. 

[STORMANLI]

4 hours ago, psv88 said:

Yea, my neighborhood has been decimated. I would estimate we lost a quarter the trees here in the past decade. Trees in residential areas are more exposed than those in a forest and therefore fall much more easily. But my local area was crushed with Sandy, the 2019 microburst and Isaias, maybe this area wasn't mean to have exposed trees outside of thick forests, or the variety of maples, sycamores, etc that come down so 

 Ditto for all 3 events.  Sandy and Isaias were power-loss champs too.  2019 microburst  knocked neighbor's tree into yard, crushing fence.  When it was removed, they inadvertently cleaned out my compost pile as well.

[NorthShoreWx]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

This has to have been the hardest decade on record for trees around the region. It seems to have started out with the March 2010 windstorm. This was followed by the NYC macroburst and tornado in September 2010. Next was the early snowstorm in October 2011 which lead to all the power outages. Irene came next in August 2011 followed by  Sandy in October 2012. Then the numerous blizzards with downed trees at times from 2013 to 2018. Along with the fall and spring storms with high wind warnings. Out of season severe in recent years like this fall and also 2018. We also saw that bow echo in June 2019 take down numerous trees across Suffolk. Isaias caused the extensive tree damage and power outages this summer.

Extensive damage on the north shore in August 2015 too.  Insane storm (including hail) at 5AM.  I forget if it was a microburst or a full blown Derecho.  It affected a considerable area.

[NorthShoreWx]

7 hours ago, psv88 said:

28.0 this morning. Last few mornings the cold has really overperformed here. Checked the local PWS to make sure my readings are accurate, and everything my immediate area is similar, i think this area of Commack is in a relative valley of sorts, so the wind goes calm at night

31 here this morning up on the ridge in north Smithtown.  We've been as low as 29.8 this fall but it wasn't for long enough to kill much.

[bluewave]

19 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Extensive damage on the north shore in August 2015 too.  Insane storm (including hail) at 5AM.  I forget if it was a microburst or a full blown Derecho.  It affected a considerable area.

Yeah, the 8-4-15 macroburst was one of our more impressive severe events for so early in the day.

https://www.weather.gov/okx/storm08042015

0502 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 WSW SOUTH SETAUKET    40.91N  73.12W
08/04/2015  E74 MPH          SUFFOLK            NY   MESONET         

            95 MPH GUST MEASURED ON ROOF OF STONY BROOK HEALTH 
            SCIENCES TOWER. 

[donsutherland1]

Ahead of an advancing cold front, the temperature rose to the upper 40s and lower 50s across the region. Temperatures began falling during the afternoon as colder air began filtering into the region. Tomorrow and Thursday will be unseasonably cold. The temperature will likely struggle to reach 40° in parts of the region tomorrow.

In the West, high temperature records again fell. At Phoenix, the high temperature reached 92° (old record: 87°, 2008). This was also Phoenix's latest 90° temperature on record. In addition, today was Phoenix's 7th 90° or above temperature this month, which tied the November record set in 1999. Of those 7 days, November 1999 saw two days with temperatures of 92° or above. This year, all 7 days saw temperatures reach 92° or above. Tucson reached 92°, which broke the daily record of 87° from 1999.

Last night, Hurricane Iota, which was the strongest Atlantic hurricane on record for November, made landfall near Haulover, Nicaragua with maximum sustained winds of 155 mph. That was about 15 miles south of where Hurricane Eta made landfall with maximum sustained winds of 140 mph earlier this month.

Scientific evidence that climate change is contributing to more intense tropical cyclones and more frequent rapid intensification of such storms has increased (for more information, refer to the links in the note below this discussion).
 
Temperatures will rapidly moderate beginning on Friday. Afterward, most of the remaining days this month could see readings near or above normal with some short-lived cool shots. November could conclude with warmer than normal temperatures. December could open with above to perhaps much above normal temperatures.

While readings will likely be colder than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas through Thursday, it will be exceptionally warm in parts of the southwestern United States. As a result, Phoenix could see additional near-record to record high temperatures through Thursday. Phoenix could also further extend its record for its latest 90° temperature on record.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around November 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.44°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at through the winter.

The SOI was +17.69.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.823.

On November 16 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.570 (RMM). The November 15-adjusted amplitude was 1.451.

Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely through at least November 25. The lack of such warming could favor the gradual strengthening of the stratospheric polar vortex. A strong polar vortex could have implications for the opening of meteorological winter.

Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is likely for winter 2020-21. It is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with potentially below normal snowfall. The November run of the seasonal European guidance suggests that winter 2020-21 will likely be warmer to much warmer than normal in the region.

The potential also exists for below to much below normal seasonal snowfall in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Since 1970, there were 9 winters that saw the AO and EPO average +0.25 or above. Mean snowfall for Boston, Harrisburg, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC averaged 50% of the most recent 30-season mean. The largest snowfall deficits relative to the most recent 30-season mean figure were located in the Philadelphia to New York City corridor. In addition, 33% of cases saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City and 44% saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in Philadelphia.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 93% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November. November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 51.0°.

Note:

1. https://www.pnas.org/content/110/30/12219
2. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-08471-z

[Snowshack]

Nice graupel shower coating the colder surfaces in Wading River -- 38F

[Cfa]

12 hours ago, psv88 said:

28.0 this morning. Last few mornings the cold has really overperformed here. Checked the local PWS to make sure my readings are accurate, and everything my immediate area is similar, i think this area of Commack is in a relative valley of sorts, so the wind goes calm at night

You really radiate much more than me. Low of 32 here. I’m just south of the moraine, it’s flat from here all the way to the Atlantic (and to Florida), but it gets hilly immediately to the north of me.

[gravitylover]

Flakes

[bch2014]

Flakes here on the UES.

[TriPol]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the 8-4-15 macroburst was one of our more impressive severe events for so early in the day.

https://www.weather.gov/okx/storm08042015

0502 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 WSW SOUTH SETAUKET    40.91N  73.12W
08/04/2015  E74 MPH          SUFFOLK            NY   MESONET         

            95 MPH GUST MEASURED ON ROOF OF STONY BROOK HEALTH 
            SCIENCES TOWER. 

You mean microburst?

[MJO812]

37 here in Brooklyn 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 47degs.[41/52].          Making it 42degs.,  or -2.5.

Month to date is 55.2[+5.3].        Should be about 50.9[+2.8] by the 26th. 

33*(50%RH) here at 6am.      32* at 7am.     33* at 8am---about 75mins. at 32*.       Still 33*  Noon.       35* by 2pm.       My daytime high T peaked at 36* between 3pm-4pm.-----but high was 37* back at midnight.     33* at 8pm.

 

[dmillz25]

33 in Williamsburg, looks like the weekend is trending colder

[bluewave]

8 hours ago, TriPol said:

You mean microburst?

The NWS classified it as a macroburst.

August 4th Macroburst

https://www.weather.gov/okx/storm08042015

https://www.nssl.noaa.gov/education/svrwx101/wind/types/

[ForestHillWx]

27 currently. Projected low of 19 tonight; would be first teens of this season. We shall see...

[the_other_guy]

30F Third freeze. Not bad for mid November… And almost impossible to believe in the sea of warmth we’ve had

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, dmillz25 said:

33 in Williamsburg, looks like the weekend is trending colder

While we still warm up back to around 60° heading into the weekend, we may get a backdoor with more easterly flow and clouds on Sunday.

KNYC   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE  11/18/2020  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192      
 WED  18| THU 19| FRI 20| SAT 21| SUN 22| MON 23| TUE 24| WED 25 CLIMO
 X/N  39| 31  50| 44  59| 50  60| 44  54| 49  60| 40  51| 44  56 37 50
 TMP  36| 33  49| 47  55| 51  54| 46  53| 51  53| 41  47| 46  52      
 DPT  12| 17  26| 33  37| 40  35| 36  47| 46  41| 30  34| 39  39      
 CLD  CL| CL  CL| CL  PC| PC  PC| OV  OV| OV  OV| CL  CL| OV  OV    

 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

Today will be partly sunny, blustery and cold. The temperature will struggle to get out of the 30s in many parts of the region. High temperatures in the region will likely reach mainly the upper 30s and lower 40s. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 39°

Newark: 41°

Philadelphia: 42°

After a cold start, tomorrow will see milder temperatures during the afternoon. The week should end with above normal temperatures.