donsutherland1 Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 At 7:40 pm, a squall line with briefly heavy rain, scattered thunderstorms, and damaging winds was pushing rapidly eastward from northwest New Jersey. Ahead of the front, winds were gusting past 40 mph and the temperature had risen into the 60s. Tomorrow will be somewhat cooler than normal. Tuesday through Thursday will likely be much cooler than normal. Temperatures will moderate afterward. November could end with warmer than normal temperatures. While readings will likely be colder than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas during the middle of next week, a fresh surge of exceptionally warm air will move into the southwestern United States from Mexico. As a result, Phoenix could see another round of near-record to record high temperatures during the November 16-19 period. Phoenix could experience its latest 90° temperature on record. The existing record was established on November 15, 1999 when the temperature reached 90°. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.5°C for the week centered around November 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.02°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.38°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at through the winter. The SOI was +9.92. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.415. On November 14 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.166 (RMM). The November 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.112. Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely through at least November 20. The lack of such warming could favor the gradual strengthening of the stratospheric polar vortex. A strong polar vortex could have implications for the opening of meteorological winter. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is likely for winter 2020-21. It is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with potentially below normal snowfall. The November run of the seasonal European guidance suggests that winter 2020-21 will likely be warmer to much warmer than normal in the region. The potential also exists for below to much below normal seasonal snowfall in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Since 1970, there were 9 winters that saw the AO and EPO average +0.25 or above. Mean snowfall for Boston, Harrisburg, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC averaged 50% of the most recent 30-season mean. The largest snowfall deficits relative to the most recent 30-season mean figure were located in the Philadelphia to New York City corridor. In addition, 33% of cases saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City and 44% saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in Philadelphia. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 86% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November. November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 50.7°. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 16, 2020 Author Share Posted November 16, 2020 Very gusty winds and pouring here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 Coney Island getting wiped out at 8:45pm---8:50pm. T crashed during this period from 63 to 54. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 1 minute ago, CIK62 said: Coney Island getting wiped out at 8:45pm---8:50pm. T crashed during this period from 63 to 54. It was insane 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 16, 2020 Author Share Posted November 16, 2020 Winds probably gusted to around 50 mph here with heavy rain for about 15-20 mins. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 What was the highest temp recorded in the area? I heard it got to 65 at 8 PM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: At 7:40 pm, a squall line with briefly heavy rain, scattered thunderstorms, and damaging winds was pushing rapidly eastward from northwest New Jersey. Ahead of the front, winds were gusting past 40 mph and the temperature had risen into the 60s. Tomorrow will be somewhat cooler than normal. Tuesday through Thursday will likely be much cooler than normal. Temperatures will moderate afterward. November could end with warmer than normal temperatures. While readings will likely be colder than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas during the middle of next week, a fresh surge of exceptionally warm air will move into the southwestern United States from Mexico. As a result, Phoenix could see another round of near-record to record high temperatures during the November 16-19 period. Phoenix could experience its latest 90° temperature on record. The existing record was established on November 15, 1999 when the temperature reached 90°. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.5°C for the week centered around November 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.02°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.38°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at through the winter. The SOI was +9.92. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.415. On November 14 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.166 (RMM). The November 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.112. Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely through at least November 20. The lack of such warming could favor the gradual strengthening of the stratospheric polar vortex. A strong polar vortex could have implications for the opening of meteorological winter. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is likely for winter 2020-21. It is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with potentially below normal snowfall. The November run of the seasonal European guidance suggests that winter 2020-21 will likely be warmer to much warmer than normal in the region. The potential also exists for below to much below normal seasonal snowfall in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Since 1970, there were 9 winters that saw the AO and EPO average +0.25 or above. Mean snowfall for Boston, Harrisburg, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC averaged 50% of the most recent 30-season mean. The largest snowfall deficits relative to the most recent 30-season mean figure were located in the Philadelphia to New York City corridor. In addition, 33% of cases saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City and 44% saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in Philadelphia. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 86% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November. November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 50.7°. Don whats going to lower the avg temp to 50.7? I heard we could have record warmth during Thanksgiving weekend? Maybe we could have the warmest November of the decade if that's the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Don whats going to lower the avg temp to 50.7? I heard we could have record warmth during Thanksgiving weekend? Maybe we could have the warmest November of the decade if that's the case. The coming cold shot. Things could still rise quite a bit if some of the warmer ideas to close the month verify. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The coming cold shot. Things could still rise quite a bit if some of the warmer ideas to close the month verify. and I have a feeling the cold shot wont be extremely cold and wont last that long. Likely lows near freezing and highs in the 40s for 2 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 59 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: and I have a feeling the cold shot wont be extremely cold and wont last that long. Likely lows near freezing and highs in the 40s for 2 days. We’ll have 3 days of below to much below normal temperatures and the temperatures should rebound. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 16, 2020 Author Share Posted November 16, 2020 Picked up 0.42" of rain when the line came thru earlier this evening. Five day rainfall total 1.32" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 50degs.[43/56]. Making it 45degs., or just Normal. Month to date is 56.3[+6.2]. Should be about 52.4[+4.0] by the 24th. Warmest November(11/2015) ever was at +6.7 at the half way point and ended with +5.1---so the remainder of the month better come in below +4.1, or it's another hottest month ever. However, all 5-Day ENS. periods centered on Nov. 21 onward into December, are slated to be AN, so could be close call. Tropics: 13.6N 81.2W----about to hit Honduras/Nicaragua. 48*(52%RH) here at 6am, m. clear-breezy. 49* by 10am. 51* by Noon. 54* by 3pm. 49* by 9pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 Brief cool down coming up before the temperatures rebound back to 60+ by the weekend. The SE Ridge keeps finding a way to beat expectations. KNYC GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 11/16/2020 0000 UTC FHR 24| 36 48| 60 72| 84 96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192 MON 16| TUE 17| WED 18| THU 19| FRI 20| SAT 21| SUN 22| MON 23 CLIMO X/N 54| 39 49| 30 42| 31 51| 43 58| 50 61| 52 63| 53 61 37 51 New run for next weekend Old run 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 Morning thoughts... Today will be sunny with a gusty wind. Afternoon high temperatures in the region will likely reach mainly the lower 50s. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 51° Newark: 54° Philadelphia: 55° Tuesday through Thursday will be unseasonably cold. Parts of the region will experience their lowest temperatures so far this season. Out west, Phoenix will experience near record to record warm temperatures. Phoenix could experience its latest 90° temperature on record. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 Are very late season severe outbreaks / derechos like we experienced yesterday more likely during a la nina especially a strong one? I know there's a correlation to them during the spring but didn't know there was also one in the fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 Wow Iota is now a 160 mph / 917 mb Cat 5 forecast to strengthen even more. It's still extremely windy out here too! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 54 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Wow Iota is now a 160 mph / 917 mb Cat 5 forecast to strengthen even more. It's still extremely windy out here too! 61 mb in 24 hours! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: Wow Iota is now a 160 mph / 917 mb Cat 5 forecast to strengthen even more. It's still extremely windy out here too! no connection between hurricane lota and the windy day in nyc... if that is what you are saying.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 Until the Pv weakens we will be stuck with negative anomalies where we don’t want them. I think any pattern flip will need to wait until after the middle of December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 As cold as it Won't Be this Tues/Wed/Thurs----the GEFS Extended warns we won't even see these modicum T's again for exactly 1 MONTH! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 2020 reversed the cold November and March patterns that we got used to in recent years. A warm finish to November will increase the chances for NYC going top 10 warmest. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Nov Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 56.3 15 2 2015 52.8 0 3 2001 52.7 0 4 1979 52.5 0 5 1948 52.4 0 6 1975 52.3 0 7 2011 51.9 0 - 2006 51.9 0 - 1994 51.9 0 - 1931 51.9 0 8 1902 51.4 0 9 2009 51.1 0 10 1999 50.8 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 Different climate now. That’s what we are looking at. None of the patterns mean anything if there’s a giant SE Ridge that will always win. We are playing three card monte with a dude on an upside down cardboard box in the 70s in Times Square. You get fooled for a little bit, But the sketchy looking guy across from you always wins. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 49 minutes ago, bluewave said: 2020 reversed the cold November and March patterns that we got used to in recent years. A warm finish to November will increase the chances for NYC going top 10 warmest. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Nov Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 56.3 15 2 2015 52.8 0 3 2001 52.7 0 4 1979 52.5 0 5 1948 52.4 0 6 1975 52.3 0 7 2011 51.9 0 - 2006 51.9 0 - 1994 51.9 0 - 1931 51.9 0 8 1902 51.4 0 9 2009 51.1 0 10 1999 50.8 0 I hope we can make it at least close to average as a warm Thanksgiving isn’t much use with the COVID increases. People shouldn’t be out traveling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Until the Pv weakens we will be stuck with negative anomalies where we don’t want them. I think any pattern flip will need to wait until after the middle of December. It’s starting to look like at least early-mid December at the least may very well be a lost cause, possibly the whole month depending on how bad off we are to start it. A full scale pattern change isn’t just going to happen overnight. I’m starting to think this is going to end up being a January, one month winter for the metro as Isotherm and a couple of others have suggested. Very likely that February is a complete torch, March isn’t looking all that promising either 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 1 hour ago, bluewave said: 2020 reversed the cold November and March patterns that we got used to in recent years. A warm finish to November will increase the chances for NYC going top 10 warmest. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Nov Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 56.3 15 2 2015 52.8 0 3 2001 52.7 0 4 1979 52.5 0 5 1948 52.4 0 6 1975 52.3 0 7 2011 51.9 0 - 2006 51.9 0 - 1994 51.9 0 - 1931 51.9 0 8 1902 51.4 0 9 2009 51.1 0 10 1999 50.8 0 A warm thanksgiving wouldn't be a bad thing. People will congregate together despite whatever rules are set. The more that can be outdoors the better. Another 70 degree Christmas might be needed too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 Freeze watch for NYC...except for Staten Island and their suburban like overnights. Bye to the growing season. Still have a few plants holding on. FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Temperatures around freezing possible. * WHERE...New York (Manhattan), Bronx, Kings (Brooklyn), Northern Queens and Southern Queens Counties. * WHEN...From late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. * IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could kill sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. To prevent freezing and possible bursting of outdoor water pipes they should be wrapped, drained, or allowed to drip slowly. Those that have in-ground sprinkler systems should drain them and cover above- ground pipes to protect them from freezing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 19 minutes ago, dWave said: A warm thanksgiving wouldn't be a bad thing. People will congregate together despite whatever rules are set. The more that can be outdoors the better. Another 70 degree Christmas might be needed too. I definitely think there would be more congregating in warm weather (Thanksgiving is a big travel holiday) and I disagree even more about Christmas. I never want a warm Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: It’s starting to look like at least early-mid December at the least may very well be a lost cause, possibly the whole month depending on how bad off we are to start it. A full scale pattern change isn’t just going to happen overnight. I’m starting to think this is going to end up being a January, one month winter for the metro as Isotherm and a couple of others have suggested. Very likely that February is a complete torch, March isn’t looking all that promising either Well I can’t speak for February or March as it’s such a long ways away. My early thinking for December is mild with below a high snow. I just don’t see how we reverse this look in time. The weeklies today continue the Niña pattern into 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: The latest weeklies are +EPO, +NAO and SE Ridge through the end of December. Just click select dimensions to get the North America maps. https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/extended-anomaly-z500?base_time=202011160000&projection=opencharts_europe&valid_time=202011230000 Just now, Allsnow said: Well I can’t speak for February or March as it’s such a long ways away. My early thinking for December is mild with below a high snow. I just don’t see how we reverse this look in time. The weeklies today continue the Niña pattern into 2021 Lol. Yep. Continue that look into January 1. Not a hint of change on them 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 16, 2020 Share Posted November 16, 2020 23 minutes ago, bluewave said: The latest weeklies are +EPO, +NAO and SE Ridge through the end of December. Just click select dimensions to get the North America maps. https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts/products/extended-anomaly-z500?base_time=202011160000&projection=opencharts_europe&valid_time=202011230000 Yea, the Euro weeklies are very ugly through the end of December and there’s no reason to doubt them at this point in time, I think there’s reason to be optimistic about January though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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