November 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[Brian5671]

2 hours ago, psv88 said:

Leaves came off the trees in a hurry this week, all of sudden trees are mostly bare, even the oaks. 

rain is knocking alot of them off here after a warm 6-7 day stretch with zero wind.

[qg_omega]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Euro really struggling with the fast Pacific flow. More -EPO/+PNA blocking than earlier forecast next week? Stay tuned...
 

New run

Old run

 

We really need blocking this year or it’s a torch

[Brian5671]

4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

At 12 pm, temperatures around the region included:

Bridgeport: 65°
Islip: 67°
New York City: 72°
Newark: 72°
Poughkeepsie: 70°
White Plains: 66°

New York City (Central Park) has now set a new record of 6 consecutive November days on which the temperature reached 70° or above. The old record was 5 days, which was set during November 3-7, 2015.

Newark extended its November record of 70° or above readings to 7 consecutive days. Prior to 2020, the latest-season stretch of 7 or more 70° days occurred during November 24-30, 1989.

you sure about Nov 24-30 1989?  I recall that being during the stretch of brutal cold that Nov into Dec

[Tatamy]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

you sure about Nov 24-30 1989?  I recall that being during the stretch of brutal cold that Nov into Dec

That was the year of our Thanksgiving snowstorm with 4.7” in Central Park on 11/23/89.

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The high was 69 at JFK.

thats disappointing.  I think I saw the high for the day before which was listed at 73 and assumed that was for yesterday

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

At 12 pm, temperatures around the region included:

Bridgeport: 65°
Islip: 67°
New York City: 72°
Newark: 72°
Poughkeepsie: 70°
White Plains: 66°

New York City (Central Park) has now set a new record of 6 consecutive November days on which the temperature reached 70° or above. The old record was 5 days, which was set during November 3-7, 2015.

Newark extended its November record of 70° or above readings to 7 consecutive days. Prior to 2020, the latest-season stretch of 7 or more 70° days occurred during November 24-30, 1989.

Wow Newark is quite  a bit warmer than the rest of the region.  I cant find a stretch of 7 70+ days anytime in recorded history either for Central Park or Philadelphia despite a much longer period of recorded history.  The max at those two sites is 5 straight days.  The 7 day 70+ stretch at the end of November in 1989 must've been amazing, since we had a significant snowstorm on Thanksgiving in 1989 and then a historically cold and dry December!  I actually dont remember that warm period at all, all I remember is a historic and tragic severe weather outbreak in November 1989 and then the Thanksgiving snowstorm and the extremely cold and dry December (as well as a blown snowstorm prediction and the big warm up around New Years 1990 and then warmth for the rest of the season including summer-like mid 80s in March.)

 

 

[LibertyBell]

14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

you sure about Nov 24-30 1989?  I recall that being during the stretch of brutal cold that Nov into Dec

Newark is notorious for being inaccurate in terms of temps higher than anywhere else in the region- but not that out of whack lol.

 

[LibertyBell]

12 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

That was the year of our Thanksgiving snowstorm with 4.7” in Central Park on 11/23/89.

and like 8-10 inches from Atlantic City to Long Island

[Stormlover74]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

you sure about Nov 24-30 1989?  I recall that being during the stretch of brutal cold that Nov into Dec

Must've meant October 

[forkyfork]

maybe we'll get a 70s streak in january

[donsutherland1]

The historic November warm period is now coming to an end. Ahead of an approaching cold front, temperatures again rose to unseasonable levels. High temperatures included:

Bangor: 68° (old record: 65°, 2002)
Boston: 73° (old record: 69°, 1966 and 2002)
Caribou: 67° (old record: 66°, 2002)
Chibougamau, Quebec: 62° (old record: 48°, 1940)
Concord: 73° (old record: 70°, 2002)
Fredericton, New Brunswick: 66° (old record: 64°, 2002)
Hartford: 71° (old record: 69°, 1977)
Islip: 68° (old record: 66°, 1970)
Manchester, NH: 74° (old record: 70°, 2002)
Montreal: 67° (old record: 65°, 2002)
New York City: 72° ***November Record 6th Consecutive 70° Day***
Newark: 73° ***November Record 7th Consecutive 70° Day***
Ottawa: 66° (old record: 62°, 1995 and 2002)
Philadelphia: 71°
Portland: 69° (old record: 65°, 2002)
Providence: 74° (old record: 68°, 1966)
Quebec City: 65° (old record: 60°, 1966)
Worcester: 68° (old record: 66°, 1935)

In the wake of the frontal passage, readings will become cooler, but remain somewhat warmer than normal. Overall, the above normal temperatures will likely continue until at least near mid-November. The probability of a fairly sharp cold shot just after mid-month has increased in recent days.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.5°C for the week centered around November 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.02°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.38°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at through the winter.

The SOI was +6.31.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.096.

On November 10 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.255 (RMM). The November 9-adjusted amplitude was 1.015.

Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is likely for winter 2020-21. It is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with potentially below normal snowfall. The November run of the seasonal European guidance suggests that winter 2020-21 will likely be warmer to much warmer than normal in the region.

The potential also exists for below to much below normal seasonal snowfall in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Since 1970, there were 9 winters that saw the AO and EPO average +0.25 or above. Mean snowfall for Boston, Harrisburg, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC averaged 50% of the most recent 30-season mean. The largest snowfall deficits relative to the most recent 30-season mean figure were located in the Philadelphia to New York City corridor. In addition, 33% of cases saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City and 44% saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in Philadelphia.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 83% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November. November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 51.0°.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The historic November warm period is now coming to an end. Ahead of an approaching cold front, temperatures again rose to unseasonable levels. High temperatures included:

Bangor: 68° (old record: 65°, 2002)
Boston: 73° (old record: 69°, 1966 and 2002)
Caribou: 67° (old record: 66°, 2002)
Chibougamau, Quebec: 62° (old record: 48°, 1940)
Concord: 73° (old record: 70°, 2002)
Fredericton, New Brunswick: 66° (old record: 64°, 2002)
Hartford: 71° (old record: 69°, 1977)
Islip: 68° (old record: 66°, 1970)
Manchester, NH: 74° (old record: 70°, 2002)
Montreal: 67° (old record: 65°, 2002)
New York City: 72° ***November Record 6th Consecutive 70° Day***
Newark: 73° ***November Record 7th Consecutive 70° Day***
Ottawa: 66° (old record: 62°, 1995 and 2002)
Philadelphia: 71°
Portland: 69° (old record: 65°, 2002)
Providence: 74° (old record: 68°, 1966)
Quebec City: 65° (old record: 60°, 1966)
Worcester: 68° (old record: 66°, 1935)

In the wake of the frontal passage, readings will become cooler, but remain somewhat warmer than normal. Overall, the above normal temperatures will likely continue until at least near mid-November. The probability of a fairly sharp cold shot just after mid-month has increased in recent days.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.5°C for the week centered around November 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.02°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.38°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at through the winter.

The SOI was +6.31.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.096.

On November 10 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.255 (RMM). The November 9-adjusted amplitude was 1.015.

Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is likely for winter 2020-21. It is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with potentially below normal snowfall. The November run of the seasonal European guidance suggests that winter 2020-21 will likely be warmer to much warmer than normal in the region.

The potential also exists for below to much below normal seasonal snowfall in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Since 1970, there were 9 winters that saw the AO and EPO average +0.25 or above. Mean snowfall for Boston, Harrisburg, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC averaged 50% of the most recent 30-season mean. The largest snowfall deficits relative to the most recent 30-season mean figure were located in the Philadelphia to New York City corridor. In addition, 33% of cases saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City and 44% saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in Philadelphia.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 83% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November. November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 51.0°.

 

Funny thing is even with this anomalously mild November it will still only be slightly warmer than December of 2015.....

 

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

you sure about Nov 24-30 1989?  I recall that being during the stretch of brutal cold that Nov into Dec

Typo. October 24-30, 1989.

[LibertyBell]

42 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

maybe we'll get a 70s streak in january

70s is getting boring let's shoot for 80.....

 

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Wow Newark is quite  a bit warmer than the rest of the region.  I cant find a stretch of 7 70+ days anytime in recorded history either for Central Park or Philadelphia despite a much longer period of recorded history.  The max at those two sites is 5 straight days.  The 7 day 70+ stretch at the end of November in 1989 must've been amazing, since we had a significant snowstorm on Thanksgiving in 1989 and then a historically cold and dry December!  I actually dont remember that warm period at all, all I remember is a historic and tragic severe weather outbreak in November 1989 and then the Thanksgiving snowstorm and the extremely cold and dry December (as well as a blown snowstorm prediction and the big warm up around New Years 1990 and then warmth for the rest of the season including summer-like mid 80s in March.)

 

 

That was a typo. I meant October 24-30, 1989. Late November 1989 was very cold.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

Typo. October 24-30, 1989.

That was a really stormy period.  I remember the October-November period had lots of extreme changes from warm to cold and back to warm and then cold again with big extremely windy storm fronts, massive severe weather outbreaks and the leaves coming down earlier than I had ever seen them before and then an extremely cold and dry December to cap it all off.  Do you remember this Don?  I think all the leaves came down around Halloween when we had a big windy front come through.

 

 

[donsutherland1]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

That was a really stormy period.  I remember the October-November period had lots of extreme changes from warm to cold and back to warm and then cold again with big extremely windy storm fronts, massive severe weather outbreaks and the leaves coming down earlier than I had ever seen them before and then an extremely cold and dry December to cap it all off.  Do you remember this Don?  I think all the leaves came down around Halloween when we had a big windy front come through.

 

 

I do remember it. I wish I could forget what came after December.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, donsutherland1 said:

I do remember it. I wish I could forget what came after December.

Yes all the extreme weather was October to December.  Any idea what caused all that extreme weather and what caused the rubber band to snap around New Years?  March was amazingly warm, but the 40 degree avg for Jan-Feb was also really weird.

December was the most frustrating month, because despite it being wall to wall cold, snow was limited to these tiny 1-2 inch clippers once a week or so.  There was a blown forecast in the middle of the month when a storm that was supposed to give us 6-8 inches of snow had a secondary form too close to the coast and it all changed quickly to rain accompanied by thunderstorms.  It was the opposite bust from February 1989 when we had a prediction of 6-8 inches of snow and we got all virga instead as Atlantic City got buried with 20 inches of snow.  I see 1988-89 was one of the analogs you were looking at, and I sincerely hope we dont get a repeat from that frustrating era.  I thought Boxing Day 2010 was nature putting things right and making up for the February 1989 debacle.  I think that storm was the greatest positive bust of my lifetime.

 

[donsutherland1]

At 11 pm, the temperature in Central Park was 67 degrees. So far, the daily low temperature is 64 degrees. If that holds, that would surpass the 60 degree figure from 2002 to set a new daily record high minimum temperature for November 11.

Meanwhile in the high Arctic region, the temperature at Svalbard Lufthavn, Norway reached 48 degrees during the pre-dawn hours on November 12. The METAR figures are below:

ENSB 120150Z VRB09G26KT 9999 FEW032 BKN088 09/03 Q0998 RMK WIND 1400FT 20030G43KT

 

[eduggs]

Decent looking clipper system on the last few GFS runs for next Tuesday.  That's a good orientation to advect some modest early-season cold air.  It looks like maybe an outside chance of snow.  The CMC has a little something too.  Sneaky late developing low scenario if that shortwave can amplify a bit more.

[Rtd208]

Picked up 0.60" of rain for the day.

[snowman19]

4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

At 11 pm, the temperature in Central Park was 67 degrees. So far, the daily low temperature is 64 degrees. If that holds, that would surpass the 60 degree figure from 2002 to set a new daily record high minimum temperature for November 11.

Meanwhile in the high Arctic region, the temperature at Svalbard Lufthavn, Norway reached 48 degrees during the pre-dawn hours on November 12. The METAR figures are below:

ENSB 120150Z VRB09G26KT 9999 FEW032 BKN088 09/03 Q0998 RMK WIND 1400FT 20030G43KT

 

48 degrees in the arctic in November. Scary 

[Snowlover11]

it’s disgusting outside holy hell, is it november or july?

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 49degs.[42/53].      Making 44degs., or about -3.0.

Month to date is 58.2[+7.5].        Should be 54.3[+2.7] by the 20th.

Still an inch of rain to fall by Tuesday.

64*(99%RH ) here at 6am, FOG<0.5, rain.     65* at 6:30am.      66*(99%RH), Fog mostly gone-just dark clouds at 8am.     BIG T Drop to 59* by 8:30am.      57*(88%RH) at 9am.      56*(93&RH) at 10am.        55*(80%RH) by Noon.     50* by. 4pm.     48* by 5pm.

Tropics:      29.3N  83.3W---crossing upper west side of Fl. coastline.          31.3N  30.5W

[bluewave]

Looks like a step down in temperatures following the record November 70° day steak.  Maybe a week away from a freeze around NYC.
 

KEWR   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE  11/12/2020  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192      
 THU  12| FRI 13| SAT 14| SUN 15| MON 16| TUE 17| WED 18| THU 19 CLIMO
 X/N  61| 47  56| 40  54| 40  59| 51  55| 36  49| 31  43| 27  43 37 53

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Nov
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 70	Missing Count
1	2020	7	19
-	1975	7	0
2	1994	6	0
-	1990	6	0
-	1953	6	0
-	1931	6	0
3	2015	5	0
-	2001	5	0
-	1982	5	0
-	1938	5	0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Nov
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 70	Missing Count
1	1953	7	0
2	2020	6	19
-	1994	6	0
-	1975	6	0
3	2015	5	0
-	1938	5	0
-	1931	5	0
-	1927	5	0

 

[Brian5671]

Dewpoint just dropped to 55 here in the last hour from 61 and winds north now....

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

A cold front moved across New York City and Newark during the past hour. From 7 am to 8 am, the temperature fell from 66° to 58° at New York City and from 67° to 62° at Newark. Clouds extended back to Ohio. 

Today will be mostly cloudy with showers and periods of rain. High temperatures in the region will likely reach mainly the upper 50s and lower 60s this afternoon. The daily high temperatures have already occurred. Likely afternoon high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 60°

Newark: 61°

Philadelphia: 62°

A strong cold shot is likely early next week.

[eduggs]

8 hours ago, eduggs said:

Decent looking clipper system on the last few GFS runs for next Tuesday.  That's a good orientation to advect some modest early-season cold air.  It looks like maybe an outside chance of snow.  The CMC has a little something too.  Sneaky late developing low scenario if that shortwave can amplify a bit more.

[eduggs]

Shortwave over the Lakes.  Day 5.25.

[donsutherland1]

The final high temperature at Svalbard Lufthavn was 49 degrees.

https://twitter.com/Ketil_Isaksen/status/1326768433577537536?s=20