Cfa Posted November 7, 2020 Share Posted November 7, 2020 76/44 split here today. A+ for November. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 7, 2020 Share Posted November 7, 2020 Record high of 73° at JFK. This beats the previous record of 70°set back in 2015. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted November 7, 2020 Share Posted November 7, 2020 Had a high of 76..low was 57. Perfect day Now 72, parties in the street continue into the night Peak foliage here now too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 7, 2020 Share Posted November 7, 2020 Today, the temperature soared into the middle 70s in the New York City area under brilliant November sunshine. Two photos from this afternoon: 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 7, 2020 Share Posted November 7, 2020 I like the November 1975 Heatwave: Starting Nov. 02>>> 68,74,78,73,65,71,76,75,67,63. The last two weeks of October had been warm too. There were four more scattered 60's before the month ended The first 32 or less after this was on December 02. We went sub-zero in January 1976 despite this or perhaps because of it. lol. Two or up to four more 70's coming up this go-round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted November 7, 2020 Share Posted November 7, 2020 5 minutes ago, CIK62 said: I like the November 1975 Heatwave: Starting Nov. 02>>> 68,74,78,73,65,71,76,75,67,63. The last two weeks of October had been warm too. There were four more scattered 60's before the month ended The first 32 or less after this was on December 02. We went sub-zero in January 1976 despite this or perhaps because of it. lol. Two or up to four more 70's coming up this go-round. 75-76 strong nina, maybe an analog?..Warm November. cold December(snowed on Christmas)..cold January,very warm February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted November 7, 2020 Share Posted November 7, 2020 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: Today, the temperature soared into the middle 70s in the New York City area under brilliant November sunshine. Two photos from this afternoon: Don, as I sat contemplating another lonely night I chanced upon your lovely photos. I am very fortunate that the wonderful images posted by you and other forum members come equipped with a well intentioned steel toed boot. It works and I greatly appreciate it, even if my butt doesn’t. As always .... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 8, 2020 Share Posted November 8, 2020 75 today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 8, 2020 Share Posted November 8, 2020 Under dazzling sunshine, the temperature soared into the 70s in much of the Great Lakes region and Northeast. High temperatures included: Albany: 70° Baltimore: 77° Bangor: 71° (old record: 66°, 1975) Boston: 74° Bridgeport: 69° (old record: 68°, 1975) Burlington: 71° Chicago: 72° Detroit: 71° (old record: 70°, 1916) Harrisburg: 74° Hartford: 79° (old record: 74°, 1975) Islip: 74° (old record: 67°, 1971 and 1975) New York City: 74° Newark: 77° Philadelphia: 75° Portland, ME: 74° (old record: 65°, 1975) ***Tied November Record*** Poughkeepsie: 75° (old record: 74°, 1938) Providence: 76° (old record: 74°, 1938) Washington, DC: 74° From tomorrow into early next week, exceptional warmth will be focused on the Great Lakes Region, southern Ontario, southern Quebec and the northeastern United States. As that happens, a colder than normal pattern will continue to become established in the Western third of the United States. From tonight into Monday, the Northern Rockies could experience another significant winter storm. Parts of Montana, including Great Falls, which has already received 28.0" snow this season, could experience blizzard conditions with 12"-18" snow. In the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas, the above and much above normal temperatures will likely continue until at least near mid-November. The first half of the month will likely wind up much warmer than normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.7°C for the week centered around October 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at through the winter. The SOI was +6.61. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.114. On November 6 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.047 (RMM). The November 5-adjusted amplitude was 0.672. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is likely for winter 2020-21. It is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with potentially below normal snowfall. The November run of the seasonal European guidance suggests that winter 2020-21 will likely be warmer to much warmer than normal in the region. The potential also exists for below to much below normal seasonal snowfall in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Since 1970, there were 9 winters that saw the AO and EPO average +0.25 or above. Mean snowfall for Boston, Harrisburg, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC averaged 50% of the most recent 30-season mean. The largest snowfall deficits relative to the most recent 30-season mean figure were located in the Philadelphia to New York City corridor. In addition, 33% of cases saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City and 44% saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in Philadelphia. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 80% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November. November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 51.0°. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 8, 2020 Share Posted November 8, 2020 6 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Under dazzling sunshine, the temperature soared into the 70s in much of the Great Lakes region and Northeast. High temperatures included: Albany: 70° Baltimore: 77° Bangor: 71° (old record: 66°, 1975) Boston: 74° Bridgeport: 69° (old record: 68°, 1975) Burlington: 71° Chicago: 72° Detroit: 71° (old record: 70°, 1916) Harrisburg: 74° Hartford: 79° (old record: 74°, 1975) Islip: 74° (old record: 67°, 1971 and 1975) New York City: 74° Newark: 77° Philadelphia: 75° Portland, ME: 74° (old record: 65°, 1975) ***Tied November Record*** Poughkeepsie: 75° (old record: 74°, 1938) Providence: 76° (old record: 74°, 1938) Washington, DC: 74° From tomorrow into early next week, exceptional warmth will be focused on the Great Lakes Region, southern Ontario, southern Quebec and the northeastern United States. As that happens, a colder than normal pattern will continue to become established in the Western third of the United States. From tonight into Monday, the Northern Rockies could experience another significant winter storm. Parts of Montana, including Great Falls, which has already received 28.0" snow this season, could experience blizzard conditions with 12"-18" snow. In the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas, the above and much above normal temperatures will likely continue until at least near mid-November. The first half of the month will likely wind up much warmer than normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.7°C for the week centered around October 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at through the winter. The SOI was +6.61. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.114. On November 6 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.047 (RMM). The November 5-adjusted amplitude was 0.672. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is likely for winter 2020-21. It is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with potentially below normal snowfall. The November run of the seasonal European guidance suggests that winter 2020-21 will likely be warmer to much warmer than normal in the region. The potential also exists for below to much below normal seasonal snowfall in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Since 1970, there were 9 winters that saw the AO and EPO average +0.25 or above. Mean snowfall for Boston, Harrisburg, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC averaged 50% of the most recent 30-season mean. The largest snowfall deficits relative to the most recent 30-season mean figure were located in the Philadelphia to New York City corridor. In addition, 33% of cases saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City and 44% saw less than 10" seasonal snowfall in Philadelphia. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 80% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal November. November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 51.0°. don what are the 10 ninas that followed Nino? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 8, 2020 Share Posted November 8, 2020 1 hour ago, KEITH L.I said: 75-76 strong nina, maybe an analog?..Warm November. cold December(snowed on Christmas)..cold January,very warm February 1975 had a positive Nov AO and 1978 had a very positive AO for November...2020 is hitting those high notes...Dec 1975 and Jan 1976 were cold despite the positive ao...1978 had a reversal of the positive ao the end of Dec...Feb had a great period of cold and snow...Feb 1976 had some snow the first week of Feb...I think the winter will start out mild until mid January or so...snowfall will be light until possibly Feb...One good week or two in Feb...analogs are 1974-75...1985-86...1971-72...these are my thoughts now...there is time for the pattern to change before Christmas as did in 1975...overall if we dont get a major storm like 2006 the winter will end up disappointing...time will tell... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 8, 2020 Share Posted November 8, 2020 13 minutes ago, uncle W said: 1975 had a positive Nov AO and 1978 had a very positive AO for November...2020 is hitting those high notes...Dec 1975 and Jan 1976 were cold despite the positive ao...1978 had a reversal of the positive ao the end of Dec...Feb had a great period of cold and snow...Feb 1976 had some snow the first week of Feb...I think the winter will start out mild until mid January or so...snowfall will be light until possibly Feb...One good week or two in Feb...analogs are 1974-75...1985-86...1971-72...these are my thoughts now...there is time for the pattern to change before Christmas as did in 1975...overall if we dont get a major storm like 2006 the winter will end up disappointing...time will tell... You have 74-75 as an analog. Didn't u mean 75-76 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 8, 2020 Share Posted November 8, 2020 30 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: You have 74-75 as an analog. Didn't u mean 75-76 ? both, but I think February will be the coldest month and with the biggest snow...January 1976 was the coldest month and February turned very mild the last three weeks...74-75, and the other two had the most snow in February and had the coldest month of the winter...they had a two week period with at least 10" of snow and temps averaging below freezing...75-76 didn't but was the only winter that had a below zero temperature...... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 8, 2020 Share Posted November 8, 2020 In reference to my post on the November 1975 warm spell above----an historical note: I just reminded myself that the front that ended it, had spawned a storm on the Great Lakes that somehow sank the tanker "Edmund Fitzgerald". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 8, 2020 Share Posted November 8, 2020 a summery of la nina years in NYC with some neutral negative...... season......ave temp …...Min ...coldest 30 days... snowfall..most snow in 30 days..largest snowfalls... 1949-50..........37.5............6...….....31.6...………...13.8"...………….8.9"...…………….3.8"........................Feb. was the coldest snowiest month... 1950-51..........35.9............9...……..33.0...………...11.6"...………….5.0"...…………....3.0"........................Dec. was the coldest snowiest month... 1954-55..........34.0............0......…..28.6...………...11.5"...…………..5.2"...…………....3.9".......................Jan into early Feb was the coldest snowiest part... 1955-56..........32.7............5......…..27.6...………...33.5"...………...25.3"...…………....6.5"...11.6"...4.2"...Dec was the coldest...March into April the snowiest... 1956-57..........35.6............0......…..27.8...………...21.9"...………...15.2"...…………....4.9"...6.4".............January into early feb was the coldest snowiest part... 1964-65..........33.3............9......…..28.0...………...24.4"...………...14.4"...…………....6.3".....4.6"...........January was the coldest snowiest part... 1966-67..........34.1............4......…..28.6...………...51.5"...……...…25.6"......………….7.1"...12.5"...9.8"...Feb was the coldest snowiest part... 1967-68..........31.3...........-1......…..25.1...………...19.5"...……….....9.1"...…………....6.6"........................January was the coldest snowiest part.... 1970-71..........32.1............4......…..24.2......……...15.5"......……….11.4"...…………....6.4".......................late dec to late Jan was the coldest snowiest part... 1971-72..........35.1............5...….....28.6...………...22.9"...………...19.6"......………….5.7".....5.2".............Feb was the coldest snowiest part... 1973-74..........35.5............6......…..32.3...………...23.5"...………...10.6"...…………....4.7".....6.0".............Feb was the coldest snowiest part... 1974-75..........37.5..........15......…..33.0...………...13.1"...………...11.3"...…………....7.8".........................Feb was the coldest snowiest part... 1975-76..........34.4...........-1......…..27.1...………...17.3"...………....9.6"...…………….4.2".....4.0"...............late Dec to late Jan was the coldest snowiest part... 1983-84..........35.2............4......…..26.1...………....25.4"...………...12.1"...…………....6.9"...5.1"...4.6"......late dec to late Jan was the coldest snowiest part... 1984-85..........36.4...........-2......…..27.5...…….......24.1"...………...16.9"...…………....4.8"...4.1"...4.3"...5.7"...early January to early Feb was the coldest snowiest part... 1985-86..........33.4............8...….....31.0...………...13.0"...………...12.1"......…………..4.5"...4.5"................Feb was the coldest snowiest part... 1988-89..........35.9............5...….....32.4...……….....8.1"...…………..5.3"...………….....5.0"..........................Feb 89 was the coldest part...Jan the snowiest... 1995-96..........32.3............5......…..27.7...………...75.6"...………...35.2"...………….....7.7"...20.2"...7.5"...10.7"...4.6"...4.6"...4.1"...mid Dec to mid Jan was the coldest snowiest part... 1996-97..........37.8............4...….....31.7...………...10.0"...……….....6.1"...……………..3.5".........................Jan was the coldest snowiest month... 1998-99..........38.7............9...….....31.3...………...12.7"...……….....6.5"...………….....4.5".........................Jan was the coldest snowiest part... 1999-00..........36.2............3...….....26.2...………...16.3"...………...14.7"...………….....5.5"..........................Mid Jan to mid Feb was the coldest snowiest part... 2000-01..........33.5..........14......…..29.9...………...35.0"...………...20.3"...…………....12.0"...6.0"...5.7".....mid Dec to mid Jan was the coldest snowiest part... 2005-06..........37.3..........14......…..33.5...………...40.0"...………...28.9"...……………..5.8"...26.9"..............Dec was the coldest part but Feb was the snowiest... 2007-08..........36.4..........10...….....35.7...………...11.9"...……….....9.0"......…………...6.0".........................Feb was the coldest snowiest month... 2008-09..........34.2............6...….....27.9...………...27.6"...………...13.3"...……………..4.5"...4.3"...8.3"........Jan was the coldest snowiest month... 2010-11..........32.7............6...….....28.1...………...61.9"...………...37.6"...…...……….20.0"...9.1"...4.2"...19.0"...late Dec to late Jan was the coldest snowiest part... 2016-17..........39.3....…...14...….....35.4...………...30.2"...………...11.0"...……………...9.4"...7.6"...5.1"........March was the snowiest and almost the coldest...Jan was the coldest month........... 2017-18..........36.2.......…..5...….....27.1...………...40.9"...………...17.5"...…………......9.8"...8.4"...4.6"...4.4"...5.5".......late Dec to late Jan was the coldest snowiest part... 1869-70 to-- 2018-19...……...33.6...…...4.3...…….28,2...…….…..27.5"...………… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 8, 2020 Share Posted November 8, 2020 3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: don what are the 10 ninas that followed Nino? Looking through my data, I actually had a typo. There were 11 (10/11 or 91% had an EPO+). Those winters were: 1954-55, 1964-65, 1970-71, 1973-74, 1983-84, 1988-89, 1995-96, 1998-99, 2005-06, 2007-08, and 2016-17. 1995-96 and the EPO- (along with an AO-). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 8, 2020 Share Posted November 8, 2020 51 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Looking through my data, I actually had a typo. There were 11 (10/11 or 91% had an EPO+). Those winters were: 1954-55, 1964-65, 1970-71, 1973-74, 1983-84, 1988-89, 1995-96, 1998-99, 2005-06, 2007-08, and 2016-17. 1995-96 and the EPO- (along with an AO-). This is potentially the strongest La Niña we’ve had in over 30 years (88-89). Pretty amazing that we’ve gone this long without a very strong La Niña..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 8, 2020 Share Posted November 8, 2020 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: Looking through my data, I actually had a typo. There were 11 (10/11 or 91% had an EPO+). Those winters were: 1954-55, 1964-65, 1970-71, 1973-74, 1983-84, 1988-89, 1995-96, 1998-99, 2005-06, 2007-08, and 2016-17. 1995-96 and the EPO- (along with an AO-). Thanks Don! For Detroit the results are definitely a mixed bag, but the 11 years average 41.9" which is right around avg 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 8, 2020 Share Posted November 8, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 61degs.[55/66] Making it 56degs., or +7.0. GFS has 5 straight 70's incoming, before some rain and a return to Normal T's. Friday---well, Less AN. Lol. It should be about +5.5 or better---by the 16th., using the +7.0 for the next 8 days. Total rainfall from two events through next Monday, PM shows CMC as laggard with under 2", EURO a little more than that----but the GFS just nearly doubled its prediction and is at 5.3" now! 59*(57%RH) here at 6am. 66*(53%RH) by Noon. 67* at 1pm, and I am lagging all stations for some reason, though JFK went backwards the last hour. 69* by 2pm. 70* by 2:15pm. 71* by 2:30pm. 72* by 3pm. 73* by 3:15pm. 64* by 6pm. Tropics: 21.1N 79.2W---just south of central Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 8, 2020 Share Posted November 8, 2020 We are breaking warm records recently set in 2015. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 8, 2020 Share Posted November 8, 2020 Morning thoughts... Today will be partly sunny and very warm. High temperatures in the region will likely reach mainly the lower and middle 70s. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 72° Newark: 76° Philadelphia: 76° An extended period of warmer to much warmer than normal conditions reamins underway. After midweek, cooler but not unseasonably cold air could arrive. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 8, 2020 Share Posted November 8, 2020 8 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: Thanks Don! For Detroit the results are definitely a mixed bag, but the 11 years average 41.9" which is right around avg Detroit also comes out close to normal (wide variation year-to-year) among the EPO+/AO+ cases I referenced in last evening’s post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 8, 2020 Share Posted November 8, 2020 This is one of those rare times that LGA dropped 2° cooler than NYC with calm winds. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 8, 2020 Share Posted November 8, 2020 Someone hitting 80 today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted November 8, 2020 Share Posted November 8, 2020 4.2 Earthquake in SE Massachusetts a few minutes ago. https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/at00qjhe0w/executive I felt nothing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 8, 2020 Share Posted November 8, 2020 10 hours ago, snowman19 said: This is potentially the strongest La Niña we’ve had in over 30 years (88-89). Pretty amazing that we’ve gone this long without a very strong La Niña..... I agree. It will be fascinating to see how this plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 8, 2020 Share Posted November 8, 2020 Long Island is the warm spot around the area at 10 am. MacArthur/ISP MOSUNNY 70 48 45 N5 30.37S Shirley SUNNY 71 47 42 N7 30.38R 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted November 8, 2020 Share Posted November 8, 2020 69 in Syosset already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 8, 2020 Share Posted November 8, 2020 39 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: I agree. It will be fascinating to see how this plays out. It's going to be weird. The typical strong Nina caveats may not play out either due to differences in the Pacific & Atlantic vs typical Nina years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 8, 2020 Share Posted November 8, 2020 Our latest 590 dm ridge of the year. 21 500 5900 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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