uncle W Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 2 hours ago, bluewave said: With the exception of 77-78, the 70s were notorious for underperforming snow for the amount of cold we had. We don’t seem to get cold and dry winters anymore. Most of our cold winters since 2000 had 40”+ to 50”+ snowfall seasons. 2008-09 is the closest we came to a cold winter with less snow than average...nothing like the cold snowless winters of 1958-59...1962-63...1967-68...1970-71...all over 50 years ago... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 After a low of 26 now up to 61 on this delightful afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 these are ridiculous dewpoints for november 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 The CFS is forecasting a prolonged period of very strong easterlies over the ENSO regions starting in mid to late November. This would support more robust La Niña strengthening going into December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 47 minutes ago, forkyfork said: these are ridiculous dewpoints for november Yeah, that looks close to the record for after the first week of November. JFK may have set the all-time November dew point record of 68° in November 2019. But that was earlier on the 1st. https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KJFK/date/2019-11-1 11:51 PM 68 F 68 F 100 % S 40 mph 54 mph 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 22 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The CFS is forecasting a prolonged period of very strong easterlies over the ENSO regions starting in mid to late November. This would support more robust La Niña strengthening going into December What are the implications of this? I definitely am enjoying this weather!! I hope it lasts through April and then we go right into summer. We do not need a winter to pile on all of the other challenges we will be faced with(Covid, Economy etc). We deserve nice weather which will enable us to stay outside and avoid close contact with others. Hopefully this will allow the hospitality industry to stay open as well. We do not need a harsh winter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 5 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said: What are the implications of this? I definitely am enjoying this weather!! I hope it lasts through April and then we go right into summer. We do not need a winter to pile on all of the other challenges we will be faced with(Covid, Economy etc). We deserve nice weather which will enable us to stay outside and avoid close contact with others. Hopefully this will allow the hospitality industry to stay open as well. We do not need a harsh winter It would lend support to the models showing a very strong La Niña come December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, snowman19 said: It would lend support to the models showing a very strong La Niña come December Meaning less of a winter and more springlike temps?(or am I oversimplifying?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 On 11/2/2020 at 7:03 AM, SnoSki14 said: Perhaps the eventual tropical system, whether it be Eta or another storm, that could impact FL Wilma style will be the pattern changing event. after the week full of clouds and rains I dont mind a long period of warm sunny weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 2 hours ago, forkyfork said: these are ridiculous dewpoints for november I wont be surprised when we have year long hurricane seasons soon enough just like we have yearlong fire seasons now out west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 4 hours ago, uncle W said: 2008-09 is the closest we came to a cold winter with less snow than average...nothing like the cold snowless winters of 1958-59...1962-63...1967-68...1970-71...all over 50 years ago... what about 1983-84? I seem to remember a lot of these cold dry winters during the 80s lol. Cold and dry Januarys at any rate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 7 hours ago, uncle W said: 1975 was one of those years with a freeze in October and then November turned warm..December and January turned cold... 1993 too. mild Novembers after a cold October used to be a good sign for a snowy winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 8 hours ago, bluewave said: This fall seems to be following the pattern since 2010. The years with an early freeze in October have had the warmest Novembers. Last year was the coldest November at Newark but didn’t drop below 40° in October. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Oct Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Lowest Min Temperature Nov Departure 2020 32 ? 2019 40 -4.0 2018 34 -3.1 2017 40 -0.7 2016 37 +2.9 2015 31 +5.2 2014 39 -2.9 2013 33 -2.4 2012 34 -3.5 2011 32 +4.1 2010 38 +0.5 Chris, did JFK have their first freeze? When I got back to Long Island on Monday, my digital thermometer registered a low of 32 F, but it didn't save the date it occurred....could it have been Saturday morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 9 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Exactly. My elephant ear plants at home in Lynbrook took a hit and almost completely defoliated. On campus on the UWS the same plants look great with no damage. So the city hasn’t had a real freeze yet. I actually like the warm November. Having another November with record cold would mean we are still stuck in that awful multi year pattern. I would take any winter over last winter. It was that bad at the coast. When was the freezing low on the south shore? Oct 31? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Chris, did JFK have their first freeze? When I got back to Long Island on Monday, my digital thermometer registered a low of 32 F, but it didn't save the date it occurred....could it have been Saturday morning? Yeah, it was their 3rd coldest October temperature on record. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Oct Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1976 30 0 - 1966 30 0 - 1962 30 0 2 1988 31 0 3 2020 32 0 - 2011 32 0 - 1974 32 0 - 1969 32 0 - 1965 32 0 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, it was their 3rd coldest October temperature on record. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Oct Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1976 30 0 - 1966 30 0 - 1962 30 0 2 1988 31 0 3 2020 32 0 - 2011 32 0 - 1974 32 0 - 1969 32 0 - 1965 32 0 Thanks! Which one of the above was their earliest? The one in 2011 was during the snowstorm! Did NYC record freezing too? and no snow at any of our local airports or NYC, not even a T? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 39 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: 1993 too. mild Novembers after a cold October used to be a good sign for a snowy winter In this case it could very well mean wall to wall warmth ala 11/12. I think the best bet going in to this winter for snow lovers (and the snow obsessed like myself) Is to aim low and keep expectations in check. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 Under bright sunshine, the temperature rose into the lower and middle 60s across the region. Tomorrow will be even warmer. Some locations could approach or reach 70°. Record-tying and record-breaking warmth prevailed from the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes Region today. High temperatures included: Bismarck: 76° (old record: 75°, 1975) Chicago: 74° (tied record set in 1978) Duluth: 73° (old record: 71°, 1903) ***Tied November Record*** Fargo: 74° (old record: 70°, 1975) ***Tied November Record*** Grand Island, NE: 84° (old record: 79°, 2016) International Falls, MN: 74° (old record: 67°, 1975) ***New November Record*** Milwaukee: 73° (tied record set in 2008) Minneapolis: 74° (tied record set in 1975) Scottsbluff, NE: 80° (old record: 79°, 1924) ***Tied November Record*** Wausau, WI: 72° (old record: 70°, 2008) This area of much above normal temperatures will again cover the Northern Plains and Great Lakes Region tomorrow. Afterward, this exceptional warmth will shift eastward and be centered over the Great Lakes Region and eastward. Phoenix, coming off its hottest June-October on record could reach or exceed its November record high temperature of 96°, which was tied on November 1. During the weekend, this warmth be centered over the Great Lakes region and southern Ontario into southern Quebec. As a result, an extended period of above and much above normal temperatures is likely in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The first half of the month will likely wind up warmer to much warmer than normal. A statistical regression based on ENSO and additional variables shows an anomaly of 1.5° to 2.5° above normal for the November 1-15 period. The latest dynamical guidance is even warmer. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.7°C for the week centered around October 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at through the winter. The SOI was +3.37. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.919. That is the highest AO figure since March 14, 2020 when the AO was +2.928. On November 3 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.746 (RMM). The November 2-adjusted amplitude was 0.977. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is likely for winter 2020-21. It is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with potentially below normal snowfall. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 25 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is likely for winter 2020-21. It is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with potentially below normal snowfall. Yeah, above normal winter temperatures have become the new normal since the super El Niño in 15-16. The main question is can we can get enough blocking intervals like 16-17 for a better snowfall outcome than the last two years? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: In this case it could very well mean wall to wall warmth ala 11/12. I think the best bet going in to this winter for snow lovers (and the snow obsessed like myself) Is to aim low and keep expectations in check. I would take normal snow happening somehow this winter as a huge win. With the strengthening Nina the SE ridge will take every chance it can to dominate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: In this case it could very well mean wall to wall warmth ala 11/12. I think the best bet going in to this winter for snow lovers (and the snow obsessed like myself) Is to aim low and keep expectations in check. Somehow I don't think that'll be the case. They'll be some odd periods for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 5 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Under bright sunshine, the temperature rose into the lower and middle 60s across the region. Tomorrow will be even warmer. Some locations could approach or reach 70°. Record-tying and record-breaking warmth prevailed from the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes Region today. High temperatures included: Bismarck: 76° (old record: 75°, 1975) Chicago: 74° (tied record set in 1978) Duluth: 73° (old record: 71°, 1903) ***Tied November Record*** Fargo: 74° (old record: 70°, 1975) ***Tied November Record*** Grand Island, NE: 84° (old record: 79°, 2016) International Falls, MN: 74° (old record: 67°, 1975) ***New November Record*** Milwaukee: 73° (tied record set in 2008) Minneapolis: 74° (tied record set in 1975) Scottsbluff, NE: 80° (old record: 79°, 1924) ***Tied November Record*** Wausau, WI: 72° (old record: 70°, 2008) This area of much above normal temperatures will again cover the Northern Plains and Great Lakes Region tomorrow. Afterward, this exceptional warmth will shift eastward and be centered over the Great Lakes Region and eastward. Phoenix, coming off its hottest June-October on record could reach or exceed its November record high temperature of 96°, which was tied on November 1. During the weekend, this warmth be centered over the Great Lakes region and southern Ontario into southern Quebec. As a result, an extended period of above and much above normal temperatures is likely in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The first half of the month will likely wind up warmer to much warmer than normal. A statistical regression based on ENSO and additional variables shows an anomaly of 1.5° to 2.5° above normal for the November 1-15 period. The latest dynamical guidance is even warmer. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.7°C for the week centered around October 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at through the winter. The SOI was +3.37. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.919. That is the highest AO figure since March 14, 2020 when the AO was +2.928. On November 3 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.746 (RMM). The November 2-adjusted amplitude was 0.977. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is likely for winter 2020-21. It is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with potentially below normal snowfall. Don, I heard this November could be near the top in term of 70 degree highs.....any idea how close it is to that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 63degs.[56/69] Making it 58degs., or +8(really +13, and ala December 2015 rate) After today, still 6 60's and 4 70's to go. No BN through the 20th. 53*(85%RH) here at 6am, some fog, 5 mi. FOG<0.20/drizzle has taken over here by 6:30am. 55*(90%RH) at 9am, FOG trying to leave, T is bouncing around. 60*(83%RH) by Noon, had cleared up by 10am. 63* at 2pm. 65* at 3pm. Tropics: Really undefined, but near 13.7N 85.6W. Only a Greek Letter can save us from Purgatory---around the 15th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 The big weather swings continue with all-time November warmth in Minnesota following the snowiest October on record. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 Morning thoughts... Today will be partly sunny and unseasonably warm. High temperatures in the region will likely reach mainly the middle and upper 60s. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 65° Newark: 68° Philadelphia: 68° An extended period of warmer to much warmer than normal conditions is now underway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 7 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Don, I heard this November could be near the top in term of 70 degree highs.....any idea how close it is to that? The record is 7 days, which occurred in 1953. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 5 hours ago, CIK62 said: The next 8 days are averaging 63degs.[56/69] Making it 58degs., or +8(really +13, and ala December 2015 rate) After today, still 6 60's and 4 70's to go. No BN through the 20th. 53*(85%RH) here at 6am, some fog, 5 mi. FOG<0.20/drizzle has taken over here by 6:30am. 55*(90%RH) at 9am, FOG trying to leave, T is bouncing around. Tropics: Really undefined, but near 13.7N 85.6W. Only a Greek Letter can save us from Purgatory---around the 15th. What does the (really +13) mean? thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 An October -AO followed by a +AO in November is usually something we see during an El Niño. I wonder if this unusual AO reversal for a La Niña is related to such a strong +PMM and slightly positive IOD? 2020 2.419 3.417 2.641 0.928 -0.027 -0.122 -0.412 -0.381 0.631 -0.072 2015 1.092 1.043 1.837 1.216 0.763 0.427 -1.108 -0.689 -0.165 -0.250 1.945 1.444 2009 0.800 -0.672 0.121 0.973 1.194 -1.351 -1.356 -0.054 0.875 -1.540 0.459 -3.413 2006 -0.170 -0.156 -1.604 0.138 0.156 1.071 0.103 -0.265 0.606 -1.029 0.521 2.282 2004 -1.686 -1.528 0.318 -0.409 -0.094 -0.236 -0.201 -0.720 0.855 -0.515 0.678 1.230 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 5, 2020 Share Posted November 5, 2020 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: The pieces are starting to fall into place for an EPO+/AO+ winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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