November 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[donsutherland1]

Despite bright sunshine, temperatures rose only into the 40s across the region. A strong wind created a mid-winter feel. High temperatures included:

Allentown: 45°
Boston: 44°
Bridgeport: 45°
Hartford: 43°
Islip: 45°
New York City: 44°
Newark: 47°
Philadelphia: 49°

Overall, the first week of November will wind up cooler than normal.

Overnight into early tomorrow, Hurricane Eta will track toward Nicaragua. At 7 pm EST, Eta's maximum sustained winds had increased to 150 mph. Eta will likely make landfall as a Category 4 or even Category 5 storm. Eta will very likely fall into the category of retired storms. How that is managed remains to be seen, as no storm named after the letters of the Greek alphabet had previously met the threshold for the retirement of its name. For perspective, the strongest November Atlantic basin hurricane was Hurricane Lenny (1999) with maximum sustained winds of 155 mph. Yesterday, Super Typhoon Goni became the strongest tropical cyclone on record to make landfall, as it came ashore in the Philippines with maximum sustained winds of 195 mph.

Scientific evidence has increased that climate change is contributing to more intense tropical cyclones and more frequent rapid intensification of such storms (for more information, refer to the links in the note below this discussion).

Through 7 pm EST, Needles, CA had not received any measurable precipitation. Without measurable precipitation, today would be Needles' record-breaking 205th consecutive day without measurable precipitation. The record of 204 consecutive days occurred from May 7, 2016 through November 26, 2016.

Across the Atlantic, much of western Europe experienced widespread record daily and monthly high temperatures. Record monthly temperatures included:

Berlin: 68°; Frankfurt: 72°; Fritzlar, Germany: 70°; Joenkoeping, Sweden: 59°; Luxembourg: 68°; Stockholm: 59°; Wiesbaden, Germany: 72°; and, Zurich: 72°.

Parts of the western United States and Canada experienced near record, daily record, and monthly record high temperatures. Select high temperatures included: Bassano, Alberta: 79°; Billings: 72°; Great Falls: 70°; and, Redmond, OR: 80°.

By mid-week, an area of much above normal temperatures will cover the Northern Plains. Readings could reach or exceed 70° in Bismarck on Wednesday and Thursday before this warmth shifts to the Great Lakes region and eastward.

The warmth that will be centered over the Great Lakes region by the coming weekend will produce an extended period of above normal temperatures in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas, which will likely commence during latter part of the first week of this month. The first half of the month will likely wind up warmer than normal. A statistical regression based on ENSO and additional variables shows an anomaly of 1.5° to 2.5° above normal for the November 1-15 period. The latest dynamical guidance is even warmer.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.7°C for the week centered around October 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at through the winter.

The SOI was +23.35.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.080.

On November 1 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.041 (RMM). The October 31-adjusted amplitude was 1.236.

Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is likely for winter 2020-21. It is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with potentially below normal snowfall.

Finally, Arctic sea ice extent (JAXA) was at 6.992 million square kilometers on November 1. That is the first time Arctic sea ice extent was below 7 million square kilometers on November 1. The previous record low figure was 7.034 million square kilometers, which was established in 2016.

Note:

1. https://www.pnas.org/content/110/30/12219
2. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-08471-z

 

 

[bluewave]

40 minutes ago, uncle W said:

I have 2005 and 2016 in my analog package...will we see a big February storm this year?...TWT...

We broke the March cold streak this year so I guess it was only a matter of time before we had a warmer than normal November. These have been the only reliably cooler than average months in recent years. Getting more than 3 consecutive colder Novembers and Marches is just too much to ask from this warmer climate.

NYC

Nov 17...-1.1

Nov 18...-3.3

Nov 19...-3.8

Mar 17...-3.3

Mar 18...-2.4

Mar 19...-0.8

Mar 20...+5.5

[uncle W]

25 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We broke the March cold streak this year so I guess it was only a matter of time before we had a warmer than normal November. These have been the only reliably cooler than average months in recent years. Getting more than 3 consecutive colder Novembers and Marches is just too much to ask from this warmer climate.

NYC

Nov 17...-1.1

Nov 18...-3.3

Nov 19...-3.8

Mar 17...-3.3

Mar 18...-2.4

Mar 19...-0.8

Mar 20...+5.5

the last time there were four consecutive cold Novembers ended in 1927...maybe not even that because of less of a heat island...2012-14 and 1995-97 had three in a row also...

[uncle W]

1973-74 was one of the strongest la nina winters and it almost had average snowfall with the help of some neg ao/nao blocks...the ice storm in December 1973 is still the biggest I can remember...a near miss heavy snow in late February and a surprise snowfall at the end of March climaxed that winter... April had a parting shot...1970-71 is the only year with less snow than average with a neg ao...but it was cold..I averaged the four month AO numbers...1988-89 came in second for strenth and the AO was very positive on average...that year was not that mild but had the least snow of these years...the only real warm winters were 1949-50 and 1998-99...

la nina winters...DJF ONI...Dec-Mar AO...A.T....min....30 day cold...snowfall...biggest snowfalls...

1973-74..............-1.7.............-0.296........35.5.....6..........32.3..........23.5"..........6.0" 4.3"

1988-89..............-1.6............+2.399........35.9.....5..........32.4............8.1"..........5.0"

1999-00..............-1.6............+0.735........36.2.....3..........26.2..........16.3"..........5.5"

1975-76..............-1.5............+0.892........34.4....-1..........27.1..........17.3"..........4.2" 4.0"

2007-08..............-1.4............+0.531........36.4...10..........35.7..........11.9"..........6.0"

1949-50..............-1.4............+0.190........37.5.....6..........31.6..........13.8"..........3.8"

1998-99..............-1.4............+0.113........38.7.....9..........31.3..........12.7"..........4.5"

1970-71..............-1.3.............-0.644........32.1.....4..........24.2..........15.5"..........6.4"

2010-11..............-1.3.............-0.329........32.7.....6..........28.1..........61.9"..........20.0" 19.0" 9.1" 5.0"

2017-18..............-0.9.............-0.291........36.2.....5..........28.0..........40.9"..........4.6" 9.8" 4.4" 8.4" 5.5"

1995-96..............-0.9.............-1.162........32.3.....5..........27.7..........75.6"..........20.2" 10.7" 7.9" 7.5" 4.6" 4.6" 4.1"

1955-56..............-0.9.............-0.512........32.7.....5..........27.6..........33.5"..........11.6" 6.5" 4.2"

1984-85..............-0.9.............-1.062........36.4....-2..........27.5..........24.1"..........5.7" 4.8" 4.3" 4.1"

[JerseyWx]

5 hours ago, Allsnow said:

 

Thursday on could easily pass as mid to late September.

[SnoSki14]

Crazy warmth coming and I don't mind it one bit.

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 59degs.      Making it 54degs., or +4.0.

After today the GFS(0Z) has 15 out of the next 16 days in the 60's, four of those in the 70's.       Oh!, and I am keeping that one day a secret.        There is virtually no rain to boot.       High T averages 69*, Nov.5-15.

Leaves little doubt on at least the next 10-12 days.

Tropics:    13.9N  83.3W---hitting Nicaragua.

42*(50%RH) here at 5am.      44* at 5:30am.     50* by 10:30am.      51* at 11am.     52* at Noon.     53* at 12:30pm.      54* by  2:30pm.

[bluewave]

We could challenge the all-time November 500 MB positive height anomaly record this weekend. It looks like the record for the NYC area is 589 DM. The models all have values close to that level.

 

 

 

 

[bluewave]

4 minutes ago, JoshSnow said:

Any changes? Any cold on the foreseeable future?

Looks like 60s and 70s until further notice as the WAR pattern really locks in.

KEWR   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE  11/03/2020  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192      
 TUE  03| WED 04| THU 05| FRI 06| SAT 07| SUN 08| MON 09| TUE 10 CLIMO
 X/N  54| 38  61| 48  69| 52  70| 54  72| 55  72| 58  73| 56  68 40 56

KISP   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE  11/03/2020  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192      
 TUE  03| WED 04| THU 05| FRI 06| SAT 07| SUN 08| MON 09| TUE 10 CLIMO
 X/N  52| 33  59| 47  65| 52  70| 51  68| 51  69| 53  70| 56  68 38 56

[the_other_guy]

Glad I got the first freeze in the books.

If you didn’t, it’s going to be a long time

[qg_omega]

23 minutes ago, JoshSnow said:

Any changes? Any cold on the foreseeable future?

Honestly nothing for the foreseeable future

[Oliviajames]

Soon time for Isotherm to crush any remaining dreams .  If he goes well below normal for his forecast we are doomed.  Hopefully he sees some blocking setting up periodically that gives us glimmers of hope.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

Today will be partly sunny and warmer than yesterday. A gusty wind will slowly diminish during the day. Temperatures will likely top out in the lower and perhaps middle 50s across the area. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 51°
Newark: 53°
Philadelphia: 55°

An extended period of above normal to much above normal temperatures is imminent.

 

[Santa Claus]

if my calculations are correct it will not snow the next 5 years, which is almost 10 years.  it could be *counts on fingers* 2045 before it snows again

will you guys just let the winter play out a bit sheesh, it's November 3rd.

[CIK62]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Looks like 60s and 70s until further notice as the WAR pattern really locks in.

KEWR   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE  11/03/2020  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192      
 TUE  03| WED 04| THU 05| FRI 06| SAT 07| SUN 08| MON 09| TUE 10 CLIMO
 X/N  54| 38  61| 48  69| 52  70| 54  72| 55  72| 58  73| 56  68 40 56

KISP   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE  11/03/2020  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192      
 TUE  03| WED 04| THU 05| FRI 06| SAT 07| SUN 08| MON 09| TUE 10 CLIMO
 X/N  52| 33  59| 47  65| 52  70| 51  68| 51  69| 53  70| 56  68 38 56

WHAT IS THE LINK FOR THIS GFSx OUTPUT.      WASN'T IT DISCONTINUED?       I JUST KEEP GETTING BOUNCED BETWEEN SITES AND NEVER GET ANY OUTPUT WHEN I HIT:  SUBMIT REQUEST.    Thanks.

[bluewave]

16 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

WHAT IS THE LINK FOR THIS GFSx OUTPUT.      WASN'T IT DISCONTINUED?       I JUST KEEP GETTING BOUNCED BETWEEN SITES AND NEVER GET ANY OUTPUT WHEN I HIT:  SUBMIT REQUEST.    Thanks.

You have to search for virtual lab gfs mos to get the new site. I only wish that that they also had ECMWF mos products. I believe the only access to that is on the NWS AWIPS in house system.

https://vlab.ncep.noaa.gov/web/mdl/mos-products

[Dan76]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Looks like 60s and 70s until further notice as the WAR pattern really locks in.

KEWR   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE  11/03/2020  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192      
 TUE  03| WED 04| THU 05| FRI 06| SAT 07| SUN 08| MON 09| TUE 10 CLIMO
 X/N  54| 38  61| 48  69| 52  70| 54  72| 55  72| 58  73| 56  68 40 56

KISP   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE  11/03/2020  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192      
 TUE  03| WED 04| THU 05| FRI 06| SAT 07| SUN 08| MON 09| TUE 10 CLIMO
 X/N  52| 33  59| 47  65| 52  70| 51  68| 51  69| 53  70| 56  68 38 56

[bluewave]

35 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

 

These big weather swings have become the new normal.

 

[donsutherland1]

3 hours ago, JoshSnow said:

Any changes? Any cold on the foreseeable future?

Not for now. The EPS weeklies are not looking good through the remainder of the month, though skill levels drop markedly after week 2.

[SnoSki14]

We should easily see a record warm November. Temps could shoot into the 70s on multiple days in this pattern which now could last all month.

Very Dec 2015 like.

[Brian5671]

3 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

Glad I got the first freeze in the books.

If you didn’t, it’s going to be a long time

I remember back in some of our really horrid winters  (01-02 comes to mind) I had roses still blooming in December b/c we had not yet had  a freeze

[donsutherland1]

Despite a gusty wind, temperatures across the region climbed into the 50s today. Tomorrow will be even milder. Some locations could reach or exceed 60°.

This afternoon, Hurricane Eta made landfall in Nicaragua with maximum sustained winds of 140 mph. Scientific evidence that climate change is contributing to more intense tropical cyclones and more frequent rapid intensification of such storms has increased (for more information, refer to the links in the note below this discussion).

Record high temperatures were set across the Northern and Central Plains today. Records included:

Bismarck: 76° (old record: 70°, 1949)
Denver: 79° (tied record set in 1915)
Fargo: 71° (old record: 70°, 1903)
Grand Forks, ND: 71° (old record: 69°, 1903)
Grand Island, NE: 85° (old record: 79°, 1978)
Lincoln, NE: 83° (old record: 79°, 2008)
Omaha: 81° (old record: 79°,2008)

This area of much above normal temperatures will cover the Northern Plains tomorrow and Thursday. Readings could again reach or exceed 70° in Bismarck. Afterward, this exceptional warmth will shift to the Great Lakes region and eastward.

The warmth that will be centered over the Great Lakes region by the coming weekend will produce an extended period of above normal temperatures in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas, which will likely commence during latter part of the first week of this month. The first half of the month will likely wind up warmer than normal. A statistical regression based on ENSO and additional variables shows an anomaly of 1.5° to 2.5° above normal for the November 1-15 period. The latest dynamical guidance is even warmer.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.7°C for the week centered around October 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.30°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at through the winter.

The SOI was +14.76.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.181.

On November 2 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.978 (RMM). The November 1-adjusted amplitude was 1.062.

Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. A predominant EPO+/AO+ pattern is likely for winter 2020-21. It is likely that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will see a warmer than normal winter with potentially below normal snowfall.

Note:

1. https://www.pnas.org/content/110/30/12219
2. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-08471-z

 

 

[Great Snow 1717]

On 11/2/2020 at 4:14 PM, Superstorm said:

1. WAR
2. Record strong La Niña
3. Raging PAC

Talk about a lump of coal this holiday season.


.

The cherry on top for the worst year since the WW2 years. ...........

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 62degs.      Making it 57degs., or +7 ie. really +12 predicted.      With the lower anomaly, November, will be +3.3 by the 12th.    We need to end at +5.2 to be #1.

9 60's in a row, including some 70's.      Only back to Normal by the 13th----then AN again?

GFS 06Z    4 60's and 5 70's still to go after today.

44*(60%RH) here at 6am, m. clear.     50* by 9am.(is this the lowest T I will see till the 13th.?    So says the GFS!      51* by 9:30am.      53* by 10am.      54* by 11am.      55*(60%RH) at Noon.      56* at 12:15pm.       57* at 12:30pm.      59* by 1pm.    60* by 2pm.       62*(68%RH) at 3pm.       58*(66%RH) by 7pm.

Tropics:   13.4N  84.5W---weakening inland Nicaragua/Honduras.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

23 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

Glad I got the first freeze in the books.

If you didn’t, it’s going to be a long time

Exactly. My elephant ear plants at home in Lynbrook took a hit and almost completely defoliated. On campus on the UWS the same plants look great with no damage. So the city hasn’t had a real freeze yet. 
I actually like the warm November. Having another November with record cold would mean we are still stuck in that awful multi year pattern. I would take any winter over last winter. It was that bad at the coast.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

Today will be partly sunny and mild. High temperatures in the region will likely reach mainly the lower 60s. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 43°

Newark: 45°

Philadelphia: 46°

The start of an extended period of warmer to much warmer than normal conditions is imminent.

[the_other_guy]

33F coldest morning since Friday

[bluewave]

This fall seems to be following the pattern since 2010. The years with an early freeze in October have had the warmest Novembers. Last year was the coldest November at Newark but didn’t drop below 40° in October.
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Oct
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Nov Departure
2020	32	?
2019	40	-4.0
2018	34	-3.1
2017	40	-0.7
2016	37	+2.9
2015	31	+5.2
2014	39	-2.9
2013	33	-2.4
2012	34	-3.5
2011	32	+4.1
2010	38	+0.5

 

 

[uncle W]

1975 was one of those years with a freeze in October and then November turned warm..December and January turned cold...

[bluewave]

24 minutes ago, uncle W said:

1975 was one of those years with a freeze in October and then November turned warm..December and January turned cold...

With the exception of 77-78, the 70s were notorious for underperforming snow for the amount of cold we had. We don’t seem to get cold and dry winters anymore. Most of our cold  winters since 2000 had 40”+ to  50”+ snowfall seasons.