PhineasC Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Sounds like a good chance for my first real snowstorm at the house. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Sounds like a good chance for my first real snowstorm at the house. I think it was just a matter of when not if you would see the first one......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 26, 2020 Author Share Posted October 26, 2020 25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That scenario reminds me of Dec 9, 2005...not saying this is a redux... It did cross my mind a couple hours ago honestly haha But, I don't know/think this is much of an analog - I'll have to take a look at the NCEP library and maybe study the UKMET and Euro - ..seeing as these have now acted like 'Johnny come lately's showing up and bullying the show away from the Para G ... 'Hey, look what we think!' ... which was the first to hone this specisivity during a generally favorable 'super synoptic' era we've frankly had signaled since the end of September ( imho ..) .. But yeah, 2005 was a compact 45 unit v-max that was so extreme over a small area, the whole system ( also a fast mover...) really fit inside "meso-beta" scale - sort of a derecho sized cyclone with an excessive graphical zenith in power. It folded the troposphere ... it's dated enough now that it may be worth it to discuss - that was extreme stratospheric entrainment event, with a huge surplus of very dry lower stratospheric air sucked into the gravity well along the back side of the wind max, and when that mixed with the saturated backside of the CCB and really created a huge downwelling wedge of gravitationally accelerating atmospheric weight... See you later Cape Cod! boom... 110 mph wind gusts I think? But ... the sun set was visible. the whole thing was 6 hours out here in interior eastern Mass, and we actually saw the sun set, with 12- 15" of new snow and people wandering around looking at the sky dazed and confused... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 4 minutes ago, Amped said: It's the ULL forming a new system and Zeta getting ripped apart. CMC and even the Ukmet show Zeta being ripped apart over the apps. I think the Euro holds onto Zeta too long. It's not going to cross the apps and still be a 988mb low. Its obviously undergoing baroclinic enhancement as a byproduct of extratropical transtion, so that seems feasible to me. Are we getting a cat 1 snowcane? No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 EPS looks good IMO for pike points N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: EPS looks good IMO for pike points N. New England winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: New England winter And autumn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 26, 2020 Author Share Posted October 26, 2020 hah...wow... I love how the Euro has it going over 80 F on D10 in the greatest warm frontal intrusion since a laundry scene outta Shawshank Redemption 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 12Z PARA v16 GooFuS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Very similar evolution to 2011. That storm had Cane Rita’s remnants entrained in it. That’s the key to both . Boom 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: EPS looks good IMO for pike points N. EPS 12z snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 I see a CJ. Actually probably will be OE precip with that cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 I would gladly take a 3" snowfall and run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 26, 2020 Author Share Posted October 26, 2020 The operational - one might think - must be a southerly outlier by some ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: EPS 12z snow. Wow nice look there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: Wow nice look there. There are some monster solutions in the individuals... Even some that are a bit too far north for here, they must’ve really wound up in a few of the individuals. A few have like two feet in far N.NY. That EPS run was pretty solid. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Only question now is when to fire up the Zoom room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 26, 2020 Author Share Posted October 26, 2020 uh I dunno I suspect we see this sort of thing in the D8-10 ranges out of the GGEM and Euro ..but they keep ending up correcting to more NW trajectory over the mid latitude continent as those days get more 5-7 ..and on and so on.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 1 minute ago, rimetree said: Only question now is when to fire up the Zoom room. Please god no radio show. LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: The operational - one might think - must be a southerly outlier by some ... Yeah crude way to look but there’s a lot of spread in the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: Please god no radio show. LOL NOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 As bad as the Euro and eps have been.. folks sure seem to be gravitating towards it. What happened to all the trashing it? 2 days ago it had this way south and sunny . Tread carefully . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: As bad as the Euro and eps have been.. folks sure seem to be gravitating towards it. 2 days ago it had this way south and sunny . Tread carefully I gravitate to the Ukie. The fact the Euro is similar is immaterial 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 CNE and NNE ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 6" on the 12z EPS mean is solid IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: CNE and NNE ftw. Phrase for the winter? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I would gladly take a 3" snowfall and run. You will change your tune when Hubb Dave has 10”’ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 1 minute ago, MaineJayhawk said: I gravitate to the Ukie. The fact the Euro is similar is immaterial how does it feel to be the one and only human on earth to favor the UKMET? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: As bad as the Euro and eps have been.. folks sure seem to be gravitating towards it. What happened to all the trashing it? 2 days ago it had this way south and sunny . Tread carefully . Definitely worth considering. It’s made some huge jumps the past couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said: I gravitate to the Ukie. The fact the Euro is similar is immaterial Could be it’s totally right. I mean it’s been wrong since last winter, so to suddenly revert back to it and dry hump it just seems strange. If it’s correct with a foot for the ski slopes and far NNE and mainly rains for all of SNE then we can say it’s back . Might be wise to at least incorporate FV3 and its ensembles since it had this first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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