powderfreak Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 4 minutes ago, PhineasC said: I think biggest issue for us is getting the good precip up here. For sure. Get used to that, lol. Why we always say we'll take precip over cold up this way. You are now in the land where QPF is what generally matters, even in October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Ukie is amped right along the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Are the stars somewhat aligning? Really far out to say with confidence. But, I think it's reasonable for areas of NNE down to interior MA to keep an eye on things for sure. I didn't say CT since I think confidence is lower there...but I wouldn't rule anything out for inland CT. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Cold bias...? Didn’t it always seem to have a warm bias? the older version did (at least in like the boundary layer area)...the new version had a horrific cold bias...think it was really bad two years ago when it came out though there was some improvement last year. Not sure if any improvement had been done with it though. I want to say yes the GFS was hitting ice potential hard in OK/northern TX for several days and seems to be pretty accurate. I know last year it would go crazy with icing events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Ukie is zonked and hammers CNE/NNE. Tries to phase both systems like we were talking about. Still flips many to snow at the end in srn areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 I don’t think this comes out flat like the gfs implies. Not sure how amped it gets though. Quite the squeeze play with the confluence north. Tricky #NovaScotiaStrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Really far out to say with confidence. But, I think it's reasonable for areas of NNE down to interior MA to keep an eye on things for sure. I didn't say CT since I think confidence is lower there...but I wouldn't rule anything out for inland CT. Oh ya..understood for sure. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yep. I know personally that's what I want to see. But Jesus...that setup not too far from now would be a prolonged snow event. That high...... Days and days and days of snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Days and days and days of snows As I said last week....That’s the definition of snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 26, 2020 Author Share Posted October 26, 2020 yeah... re the phasing - I still see this as a fascinating exercise in the models attempting to do so through an unusually narrow N-S region of the hypsometric medium. It's a fast flow/progressive scenario with superb timing - which is crucially the handling that needs to be done the right way to get to these solutions... if the south outpaces the north just a little more it's ripped open ravioli - That UKMET solution is an NJ Model bomb technically ... as is the GGEM trying to move in that direction - ... NJ model lows tend to affect narrower regions but this one also has a smearing into NN because there's jet enhancing in the N stream ... lot happening there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 The 2m temp on last nights Ukie run were hysterical. Showed -12F in SVT. Valid 06z Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 A full phase or even a partial off the coast will work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Let’s phase this beotch and have it crank up...I’ll take heavy rain too..I’m not picky this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 19 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Looks too tucked, unless its stacked? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Looks too tucked, unless its stacked? It's quickly collapsing SE at that point...prob changes most of SNE over to snow quickly after that frame. The detailed maps are not out yet on pivotal though so I can't see it. But even a pretty far west amped solution is going to produce some snow. We want the happy medium of amped, but not obscenely tucked west, which I'm less afraid of in this super fast pattern than I am of something hideously sheered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It's quickly collapsing SE at that point...prob changes most of SNE over to snow quickly after that frame. The detailed maps are not out yet on pivotal though so I can't see it. But even a pretty far west amped solution is going to produce some snow. We want the happy medium of amped, but not obscenely tucked west, which I'm less afraid of in this super fast pattern than I am of something hideously sheered. Jesus...may have to break from the winter outlook to tackle pre-winter shenanigans....that would be a first. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 This would be 2 yrs worth of snow in MD for Phinn and its only October....lol 1 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 People undoubtedly getting gassed up for what will likely be a disappointment. I’d feel pretty good if I was in dendrites area... but further south... good Rainer maybe ended as some flakes would be my guess, especially south of the pike. Maybe north has a shot at some minor accums. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 I think the UK is reasonable. The para GFS is zonked. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: This would be 2 yrs worth of snow in MD for Phinn and its only October....lol Let's hope the Ukie is not dookie 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It's quickly collapsing SE at that point...prob changes most of SNE over to snow quickly after that frame. The detailed maps are not out yet on pivotal though so I can't see it. But even a pretty far west amped solution is going to produce some snow. We want the happy medium of amped, but not obscenely tucked west, which I'm less afraid of in this super fast pattern than I am of something hideously sheered. Damn the Ukie is frigid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 8 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: People undoubtedly getting gassed up for what will likely be a disappointment. I’d feel pretty good if I was in dendrites area... but further south... good Rainer maybe ended as some flakes would be my guess, especially south of the pike. Maybe north has a shot at some minor accums. Definitely. Mid-levels look best further N but I would not rule out a changeover in SNE, especially the hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 37 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Ukie is zonked and hammers CNE/NNE. Tries to phase both systems like we were talking about. Still flips many to snow at the end in srn areas. Yup this is what we were discussing as the best solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 7 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said: Let's hope the Ukie is not dookie It would kind of suck to be converting my tractor over to the snowblower before we even get the leaves picked up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 43 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I don't like that look. Just a little too tight for most on the board--congrats to the CNE/NNE crew though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 1 minute ago, moneypitmike said: I don't like that look. Just a little too tight for most on the board--congrats to the CNE/NNE crew though. Well if you are looking for accumulating snow then yes but for flakes , I think everyone in SNE will see some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Yeah that ukie solution is a little far northwest for SNE to maximize the snowfall but it gets squeezed so quickly, that it would still give a flash over and prob 1-2" for a chunk of SNE....while CNE/NNE would get warning snows out of that. You get a compromise solution of the Ukie and some of the further SE guidance, that's when the alarm bells would go off for SNE peeps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 9 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Damn the Ukie is frigid. Hopefully overdone. That and a couple inches of snow on heavy trees = cold house combination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Just a bit chilly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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