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Oct 29-30 snow threat


Typhoon Tip
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2 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Agreed. There will be no accumulation at the immediate coast in late October unless there is consistent heavy rates and the RPM pretty much depicts that there.

5 miles inland, a different story.

Me thinks Logan records T (for snow in the air but not sticking) or 0.1   It's especially bad for measuring there being that it's literally being measured on the water basically (Deer Island)

Not deer island anymore. 

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23 minutes ago, MegaMike said:

Nobody gives the NBM the love it deserves! Compared to the 10:1/Kuchera SLR algorithms, the NBM (conceptually) is far superior (especially compared to deterministic output). For details, visit this link: https://www.meted.ucar.edu/winter/nbm32winter/. You'll need to create a free account to access the module, but it's worth it! Essentially, SLR's are computed from deterministic/ensemble output via multiple SLR algorithms weighted differently by modeling system(s)... The Cobb SLR algorithm IS incorporated into NBM's snowfall computation (including 3 other algorithms).

I still can't find a public website that provides graphics for the NBM so I'll attach today's 00z, 06z, 12z, and 18z snowfall accumulation plots here. It's straightforward to get and process:

1) Access the 'http://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov' server utilizing a URL to 'request' output from a specific model run. As an example,


http://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov:80/dods/blend/blend20201029/blend_1hr_00z will obtain NBM's 2020-10-29 00z simulation (1hr time-steps).

2) You'll get all of NBM's variables for all times on a lon/lat grid once you obtain the JSON file... Extract the accumulated snowfall variable called, 'asnowsfc' (for the final available hour) then convert mm->inches.

3) Plot the data using optional mapping resources.

It takes a while to make it look pretty, but overall, it's not too difficult. If anyone wants to view the script, PM me! I'm uploading my graduate school script to GitHub. Anyone can access/use it if they'd like.

NBM_20201029_00z.png

NBM_20201029_06z.png

NBM_20201029_12z.png

NBM_20201029_18z.png

Nice, looks like the Euro 10 to 1 maps

download (1).png

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32 minutes ago, MegaMike said:

Nobody gives the NBM the love it deserves! Compared to the 10:1/Kuchera SLR algorithms, the NBM (conceptually) is far superior (especially compared to deterministic output). For details, visit this link: https://www.meted.ucar.edu/winter/nbm32winter/. You'll need to create a free account to access the module, but it's worth it! Essentially, SLR's are computed from deterministic/ensemble output via multiple SLR algorithms weighted differently by modeling system(s)... The Cobb SLR algorithm IS incorporated into NBM's snowfall computation (including 3 other algorithms).

I still can't find a public website that provides graphics for the NBM so I'll attach today's 00z, 06z, 12z, and 18z snowfall accumulation plots here. It's straightforward to get and process:

1) Access the 'http://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov' server utilizing a URL to 'request' output from a specific model run. As an example,


http://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov:80/dods/blend/blend20201029/blend_1hr_00z will obtain NBM's 2020-10-29 00z simulation (1hr time-steps).

2) You'll get all of NBM's variables for all times on a lon/lat grid once you obtain the JSON file... Extract the accumulated snowfall variable called, 'asnowsfc' (for the final available hour) then convert mm->inches.

3) Plot the data using optional mapping resources.

It takes a while to make it look pretty, but overall, it's not too difficult. If anyone wants to view the script, PM me! I'm uploading my graduate school script to GitHub. Anyone can access/use it if they'd like.

NBM_20201029_00z.png

NBM_20201029_06z.png

NBM_20201029_12z.png

NBM_20201029_18z.png

 

Thanks for sharing! That looks pretty good to me. 

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39 minutes ago, MegaMike said:

Nobody gives the NBM the love it deserves! Compared to the 10:1/Kuchera SLR algorithms, the NBM (conceptually) is far superior (especially compared to deterministic output). For details, visit this link: https://www.meted.ucar.edu/winter/nbm32winter/. You'll need to create a free account to access the module, but it's worth it! Essentially, SLR's are computed from deterministic/ensemble output via multiple SLR algorithms weighted differently by modeling system(s)... The Cobb SLR algorithm IS incorporated into NBM's snowfall computation (including 3 other algorithms).

I still can't find a public website that provides graphics for the NBM so I'll attach today's 00z, 06z, 12z, and 18z snowfall accumulation plots here. It's straightforward to get and process:

1) Access the 'http://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov' server utilizing a URL to 'request' output from a specific model run. As an example,


http://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov:80/dods/blend/blend20201029/blend_1hr_00z will obtain NBM's 2020-10-29 00z simulation (1hr time-steps).

2) You'll get all of NBM's variables for all times on a lon/lat grid once you obtain the JSON file... Extract the accumulated snowfall variable called, 'asnowsfc' (for the final available hour) then convert mm->inches.

3) Plot the data using optional mapping resources.

It takes a while to make it look pretty, but overall, it's not too difficult. If anyone wants to view the script, PM me! I'm uploading my graduate school script to GitHub. Anyone can access/use it if they'd like.

NBM_20201029_00z.png

NBM_20201029_06z.png

NBM_20201029_12z.png

NBM_20201029_18z.png

DJ Magic Mike! Welcome 

That last map actually shows MT. Tolland 

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