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Oct 29-30 snow threat


Typhoon Tip
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43 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

ICON is a toaster bath

icon_asnow_neus_27.png

FWIW that is not the same as other clown maps. It tries to adjust the ratio. 

That said, it wasn’t as impressive as runs like the euro. I think most will see in the 1-2” range anyway. Maybe some spot 3”+ amounts in higher terrain if this pops like some guidance shows. 

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1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

34 lt rain. Wasting QPF sucks. 
 

feels like md winter. 

Brutal day at 1,500ft lol.  Just 30s and rain while you can see it snowing just up the hill.

I drove a few minutes up into Smugglers Notch though and there was snow on the ground starting around 2,000ft and it was snowing steadily up there.  Pasted white above 2,500ft.

123014402_5300663483292428_6030016166536

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Brutal day at 1,500ft lol.  Just 30s and rain while you can see it snowing just up the hill.

I drove a few minutes up into Smugglers Notch though and there was snow on the ground starting around 2,000ft and it was snowing steadily up there.  Pasted white above 2,500ft.

123014402_5300663483292428_6030016166536

Love this shot. You and the Phin crew should get smoked Monday Tuesday with upslope

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20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

FWIW that is not the same as other clown maps. It tries to adjust the ratio. 

That said, it wasn’t as impressive as runs like the euro. I think most will see in the 1-2” range anyway. Maybe some spot 3”+ amounts in higher terrain if this pops like some guidance shows. 

I think we are going to see a lot of 2” amounts in low spots and 4” higher . 5” in Jack’s . Almost everything shows that 

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4 minutes ago, mreaves said:

To be fair, that's a pretty big hill down from Randolph to Gorham.

I’m only joking, I have no idea.  Snow levels seem to be around 1,500ft right now.  I was just saying I doubt the town matters but that’s probably how folks there think about it if it’s set up that way.  

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Nobody gives the NBM the love it deserves! Compared to the 10:1/Kuchera SLR algorithms, the NBM (conceptually) is far superior (especially compared to deterministic output). For details, visit this link: https://www.meted.ucar.edu/winter/nbm32winter/. You'll need to create a free account to access the module, but it's worth it! Essentially, SLR's are computed from deterministic/ensemble output via multiple SLR algorithms weighted differently by modeling system(s)... The Cobb SLR algorithm IS incorporated into NBM's snowfall computation (including 3 other algorithms).

I still can't find a public website that provides graphics for the NBM so I'll attach today's 00z, 06z, 12z, and 18z snowfall accumulation plots here. It's straightforward to get and process:

1) Access the 'http://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov' server utilizing a URL to 'request' output from a specific model run. As an example,

http://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov:80/dods/blend/blend20201029/blend_1hr_00z will obtain NBM's 2020-10-29 00z simulation (1hr time-steps).

2) You'll get all of NBM's variables for all times on a lon/lat grid once you obtain the JSON file... Extract the accumulated snowfall variable called, 'asnowsfc' (for the final available hour) then convert mm->inches.

3) Plot the data using optional mapping resources.

It takes a while to make it look pretty, but overall, it's not too difficult. If anyone wants to view the script, PM me! I'm uploading my graduate school script to GitHub. Anyone can access/use it if they'd like.

NBM_20201029_00z.png

NBM_20201029_06z.png

NBM_20201029_12z.png

NBM_20201029_18z.png

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17 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

that looks extremely reasonable 

Agreed. There will be no accumulation at the immediate coast in late October unless there is consistent heavy rates and the RPM pretty much depicts that there.

5 miles inland, a different story.

Me thinks Logan records T (for snow in the air but not sticking) or 0.1   It's especially bad for measuring there being that it's literally being measured on the water basically (Deer Island)

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