STILL N OF PIKE Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 54 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: You're welcome to change it, since you are now technically the thread starter. Ray initially started it, but when I merged the previous posts, whomever's posts was first chronologically in other thread, makes them the 1st post in the thread. The thread title poses a question and doesn't even focus on the system, i get it's a joke lol but this thread is in ADD land. How bout "Friday October 30 storm, Can it snow" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 5 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: So---is anyone going to say the ground won't allow for accumulating snow in October? SUN ANGLE! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 21 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah agreed. Although, given all the circumstances with this including a tropical...that certainly could change one way or another. Yeah, The tropical connection may play the wild card in all this in the end, Its a tricky situation, Being early on, Rooting for something more amped then modeled to track more NNE, A weaker scenario would shift this south and more suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 What do we need to see on modeling to get this juicier.... A more Robust PNA RIDGE? can we spin in some energy and get this to detonate Under Long Island and temporarily SLow way down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Nothing cooler than a hurricane and record setting snowstorm merging together. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 That's some cold stuff on the backside.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Nothing cooler than a hurricane and record setting snowstorm merging together. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 10 minutes ago, PowderBeard said: SUN ANGLE! Yeah..but.. each day that goes by is better and better in terms of what the sun would do to the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 This thing looks capped by its inability to slow at all entering the waters S of Long Island. fast progressive flow ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: This thing looks capped by its inability to slow at all entering the waters S of Long Island. fast progressive flow ... Watch the ULL as this gets closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Look at how cold the GFS is in the latter part of the storm. That's like -5C at 900mb. Frigid! I saw that. You could argue the coldest profile below 600mb is at 900mb. In late October no less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 I changed the title of the thread to make it a little clearer....I moved Ray's joke to the subtitle, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Watch the ULL as this gets closer 26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 12z GFS looks a little more phased at hr 96 compared to hr 102 of the 6z run. The lead weaker s/w from Zeta zips out quick, but a piece of energy diving in at that time tries to phase with the bowling ball that is moving up from the south. I'd like to see that really blow up the low as it exits stage right. I believe it's the better chance for snow in SNE. Yeah it feels counter-intuitive at first glance to want the ULL more amped for better snow in SNE, but I think that would produce more snow ultimately than a flatter solution. Yeah, it might initially shove the precip pretty far N and NW, but as it gets squeezed, you'd see the R/S line collapse very quickly SE and probably produce a really intense area of frontogenesis over SNE before it exits. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: I changed the title of the thread to make it a little clearer....I moved Ray's joke to the subtitle, lol. I would have gone with rain threat. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Thanks for making the change. I was afraid it might be one of those, "Winter is lost because it snowed in October" whines. It is a great joke as a subtitle though. I well remember the superstition that followed the barren winter of 2011-2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 24 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: So---is anyone going to say the ground won't allow for accumulating snow in October? with the cold air filtering in late it's probably a snow stuck to trees look here in the lowlands anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah it feels counter-intuitive at first glance to want the ULL more amped for better snow in SNE, but I think that would produce more snow ultimately than a flatter solution. Yeah, it might initially shove the precip pretty far N and NW, but as it gets squeezed, you'd see the R/S line collapse very quickly SE and probably produce a really intense area of frontogenesis over SNE before it exits. Yeah exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah it feels counter-intuitive at first glance to want the ULL more amped for better snow in SNE, but I think that would produce more snow ultimately than a flatter solution. Yeah, it might initially shove the precip pretty far N and NW, but as it gets squeezed, you'd see the R/S line collapse very quickly SE and probably produce a really intense area of frontogenesis over SNE before it exits. Icon ULL is what we would want. GFS just missed a phase with energy dropping out of Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I would have gone with rain threat. I thought rain was implied given the month....but yeah. Rain is still the most likely ptype of many. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: I thought rain was implied given the month....but yeah. Rain is still the most likely ptype of many. I never know with this group. Very snow-centric. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 26, 2020 Author Share Posted October 26, 2020 14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I changed the title of the thread to make it a little clearer....I moved Ray's joke to the subtitle, lol. thx! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJOatleast7 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 23 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Aaaand... Todd Gross is back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 GGEM kind of shows what I was just discussing with Ginx and Scott. You can see the southern stream bowling ball gets more involved with the northenr stream here and by the time that happens, take a look a H85....it's over...the outcome is cemented from that point. Everything collapses SE. Thats close to what you are looking for in a snowier solution. Maybe even more wrapped up as it goes south of us, but that is the idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 The strong anti-cyclonic flow over Maine and Quebec at H85 is a good giveaway too. That is just rushing into the deepening ML center on that type of setup. Here's the next frame in case you didn't already get the idea 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Yep. I know personally that's what I want to see. But Jesus...that setup not too far from now would be a prolonged snow event. That high...... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 And Will/ORH is holding the pre-season training camp over in Ballroom C from 1-4pm for all that are interested. Starting with stretching and some light agility training. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Just now, powderfreak said: And Will/ORH is holding the pre-season training camp over in Ballroom C from 1-4pm for all that are interested. I think biggest issue for us is getting the good precip up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yep. I know personally that's what I want to see. But Jesus...that setup not too far from now would be a prolonged snow event. That high...... Are the stars somewhat aligning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 I was wondering whether the GFS cold bias is still a thing, but the position/strength of that high plus the track of the sfc low would certainly lock in some pretty impressive llvl cold. Would also be one helluva fronto band...may even be able to get some pretty decent dynamic cooling too...and down to the sfc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: I was wondering whether the GFS cold bias is still a thing, but the position/strength of that high plus the track of the sfc low would certainly lock in some pretty impressive llvl cold. Would also be one helluva fronto band...may even be able to get some pretty decent dynamic cooling too...and down to the sfc. Cold bias...? Didn’t it always seem to have a warm bias? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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