Typhoon Tip Posted October 29, 2020 Author Share Posted October 29, 2020 Okay... see, NAM inside of 36 hours and suddenly ( at least in so far as the FOUS grid goes...) it makes more sense both for differentiating the sigma levels out in time ( temp and QPF vs UVM), and butt-boning LGA at this time of year... BOS LGA 12075989840 12319 080319 55060201 12056967111 07606 000430 66070510 18042967841 06521 060423 53050000 18014977445 01612 040219 56060206 24027979338 08919 090225 44019798 24035979423 07516 060223 47020002 30034958917 00717 143618 35009595 30017917407 -1611 140115 37020097 I knew ..above all other reasons why ...that having LGA look snow-like in the previous FOUS grids ... meant the the system was in flux. Seeing LGA struggle to claim cat paws until that last interval ..that's a bit more consistent with a latitude/speed flow event... That hour 18 interval ... oh my. Regardless of any synoptic/interpretative graphic products and what not, using this old standard metric usually that is having isothermic parachuting going out around Waltham to Danvers, when it's 0 C just off the deck over Logan... That 04 ( 40 degree wind direction ) is square off the Harbor and is probably lighting up the Airport with marine contaminating llv warmth...But I suspect on the flop side of an inevitable Coastal-front in this sort of set up, there might be a startling burst of surprisingly heavy snow to those that have October climo in mind - which...is probably 92.43% of walking civility... Anyway, that's how these FOUS numbers layout ... but, there's conservative mutilations of these numbers that are almost insistent because of the calendar, understood. But, the Euro at 6 z and other higher res models...combining with the notion - I have confidence in ... - that the models are correcting for having ( probably ) evacuated too much moisture seaward, starving the 2nd wave's deep layer wave spacing, is now playing back into a more robust event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 6 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: He tried to tell them. Lol. He did. Then we did . Still they laughed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Lol. He did. Then we did . Still they laughed The elevated SW Ct areas...like Oxford/Seymour over toward Tolland and Just N of Ginxy always had solid potential in round 2. They have shown a bit more consistency with lift in the morning period. This is a very cold airmass by morning. Areas further North have had more run to run shifts with Lift up toward ASH/LWM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 19 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I was just enjoying the dilf vs milf tussle. 2-3 on the nams and the 6z Euro for around here...should be a good test for my valley location. Nice steady rain today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 29, 2020 Author Share Posted October 29, 2020 18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Lol. He did. Then we did . Still they laughed In fairness... this could be overcompensating the other way ... perhaps too far ? Hard to say - probably need to now-cast. I do feel 'reasonably' confident that the paltry solutions of yesterday and prior ...were probably more so setback interruption compared to where this thing is destined. Keep in mind, 3" of cake at this time of year is a relative win - and the NAM is flat suggesting 6" over the western side of the CF... Chris ( Oceanwx ... is that his name? I can't recall... I thought once it was Eric but I don't f'gun know ) mentioned that the ensemble spread was pulling the percentage correction in favor of more .. when I read that I was pretty sold that we were dealing with this particular setup's "typical" mid range blackout - haha... or something analogous to it - thing is, we won't have to deal with "Zeta's" in this sort of solution over the ensuing winter ... And I think these sort of needle thread/speed stretched events may be common - Not saying we can't get a slow moving bomb...but any bomb is likely going to race orbital satellite velocities - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 ICON still looks crappy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 Reggie is still pretty warm compared to other guidance. Doesn't have much down in CT/C-S RI. It is really slow too...it is still light snow hanging on in SE areas at 00z tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 29, 2020 Author Share Posted October 29, 2020 Ha... yeah, it would be a fitting irony if the robuster 2nd wave verified cold rain - ... everyone would be so deliciously happy - 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Ha... yeah, it would be a fitting irony if the robuster 2nd wave verified cold rain - ... everyone would be so deliciously happy - If I recall there was a system recently, (last year maybe) that did just this...the system was marginal to begin with, but everyone was ready for 2-5 inches of snow and within 6-12 hours of the event it all went down hill and it was 35 and rain for all except for those in the highest of elevations. I almost expect that out of October "snow" regardless of computer forecasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 29, 2020 Author Share Posted October 29, 2020 3 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: If I recall there was a system recently, (last year maybe) that did just this...the system was marginal to begin with, but everyone was ready for 2-5 inches of snow and within 6-12 hours of the event it all went down hill and it was 35 and rain for all except for those in the highest of elevations. I almost expect that out of October "snow" regardless of computer forecasting Mmm ...that's still too much time to maximize the buttsoring - It has to be one model out of the fray of optimism that is other black and white ... and having that one naysayer scoring the coup and raining out a 34.6 F CCB ... The other models are still snowing while that is happening too.. We call those "whaaaaa" storms - 6-12 hours of warning? Nah - that's giving the torture a way out. lol - I'm kidding here - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 15 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: 2-3 on the nams and the 6z Euro for around here...should be a good test for my valley location. Nice steady rain today... I’m going under. T-2”. What’s your elevation over there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I’m going under. T-2”. What’s your elevation over there? 170ish...I agree, just enough on the grass for the kids to sled a few minutes before it becomes a muddy mess, but it is October, anything would be great to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 29, 2020 Author Share Posted October 29, 2020 Actually... we had an intense Nor' easter back in March...I want to say 2017, that was marginal but favored the buttbang verification - we were doubting ...or at least admittedly I was, that the GFS would be right about rain, because, it selling plain rain at 38F/31F while it was pouring 3" of QPF. It was like drawing us into the deception of the god-damn thing... I mean, you gotta figure it was completely corrupted with the wet-bulb/saturation and thus, temperature in the lower sounding and probably p-type therein... An insidiously easy correction was 33/33 with blue bomb, to 20" ... ... At least meet us half f'n way my god... Nothing.... Big rain drops at 38F/37.8F 99.99 % RH and yes...3" of QPF ... Oh, there may have been a cat paw or two... Now THAT is how ya tan a hide! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I’m going under. T-2”. What’s your elevation over there? Yeah, that’s quite reasonable for your area. I’m really only expecting 1-2” here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 Just now, Spanks45 said: 170ish Yea...that’s low for that part of town so while the weenie may not be thrilled with it, but as long as the weenie’s wife enjoys it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 I'll consider 2" a big win at mi casa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Actually... we had an intense Nor' easter back in March...I want to say 2017, that was marginal but favored the buttbang verification - we were doubting ...or at least admittedly I was, that the GFS would be right about rain, because, it selling plain rain at 38F/31F while it was pouring 3" of QPF. It was like drawing us into the deception of the god-damn thing... I mean, you gotta figure it was completely corrupted with the wet-bulb/saturation and thus, temperature in the lower sounding and probably p-type therein... An insidiously easy correction was 33/33 with blue bomb, to 20" ... ... At least meet us half f'n way my god... Nothing.... Big rain drops at 38F/37.8F 99.99 % RH and yes...3" of QPF ... Oh, there may have been a cat paw or two... Now THAT is how ya tan a hide! Was at Hunter Mountain for that one. Big gradient right on NY/MA border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 1 hour ago, wxeyeNH said: 39F Overcast and undercast Foliage started early this year and then slowed way down. A surprising amount of leaves on my property. Don't need a birch bender so a part of me wants this to stay south. Plenty of snow chances later in the season but then there is that other part of you.... which lives in all of us. seems like 3" would be a win here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 4 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I'll consider 2" a big win at mi casa. Do you want me to go take pictures of the original Pit tomorrow? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 All the mesos have a weenie jack near the Foxboro-Walpole-Stoughton area or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 Gfs is good for W SNE and pike / interior Se mass. LWM/ ASH shaft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 Jeez...GFs is dangerously close to hammering SE MA with a really strong CCB. Eveyrthing kind of slides east at the very last second, but you can see how at hour 24, it's going nuts over LI looking like it might hit RI/SE MA. Still, pretty decent solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: All the mesos have a weenie jack near the Foxboro-Walpole-Stoughton area or so. I’m out of work at noon tomorrow... may take a quick drive up the road. My work (Stonehill college) should do decently well I’d imagine. Whatever falls, it’s all good. We are getting some much needed rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Jeez...GFs is dangerously close to hammering SE MA with a really strong CCB. Eveyrthing kind of slides east at the very last second, but you can see how at hour 24, it's going nuts over LI looking like it might hit RI/SE MA. Still, pretty decent solution. Big lift moves into that area. I saw that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 17 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: but then there is that other part of you.... which lives in all of us. seems like 3" would be a win here. Probably under Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 GFS is really nice in CT and RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 Looks like I break the sleep in pattern tomorrow and get up with 7AM pee run to see our first snow! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 Just now, weathafella said: Looks like I break the sleep in pattern tomorrow and get up with 7AM pee run to see our first snow! Getting up at 3am here bed by 10 glad I got tonight off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: GFS is really nice in CT and RI. Can you possibly post it(GFS)? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Can you possibly post it(GFS)? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now