TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 NAM is good here for 2-3” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 39F Overcast and undercast Foliage started early this year and then slowed way down. A surprising amount of leaves on my property. Don't need a birch bender so a part of me wants this to stay south. Plenty of snow chances later in the season 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Maybe some power issues if the NAM is right Yeah, lots of leaves on trees still. I'm going to test the genny and blower this afternoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 Just now, wxeyeNH said: 39F Overcast and undercast Foliage started early this year and then slowed way down. A surprising amount of leaves on my property. Don't need a birch bender so a part of me wants this to stay south. Plenty of snow chances later in the season Definitely some good photo ops if you get and inch or two though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: NAM is good here for 2-3” Just remember those maps are 10:1 and highly dependent on everything coming together. I don't want to hear bitching and moaning if it's a coating. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: ORH may do very well on the NAM. Good spot for cold and moisture. 600mb goodies on the soundings. Really cold stuff with -6C getting into that 900-925mb range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Just remember those maps are 10:1 and highly dependent on everything coming together. I don't want to hear bitching and moaning if it's a coating. Kuchera map is prob more accurate in this scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Just remember those maps are 10:1 and highly dependent on everything coming together. I don't want to hear bitching and moaning if it's a coating. Do you give Bryce that tuff love as you interpret models to him . haha 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 What does ORH avg in a season? 65”? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: 600mb goodies on the soundings. Really cold stuff with -6C getting into that 900-925mb range. Surface temps on the NAM in the upper 20’s for orh at 15z. That’s real cold for October 30th! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 29, 2020 Author Share Posted October 29, 2020 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Big improvement on the 12z NAM....that looks really good for tomorrow morning. Not to blow smoke at the assessment ... but, I did mention yesterday that the complex interaction between the diabatic thief in the night, Zeta ( kitchy ) may be playing havoc with the stream dynamics during mechanical phasing.... I think the whole Zeta thing ( frankly ) would have done this thing the better if the f'er just wasn't part of it... Or, fully sucked in...But this bi-pass thing I think was screwing up the models - owing also to the fact that the physics are probably stressed by the uber fast nature of the flow. It's a bit much - I don't know what point these models evolve technologically to handle exotic/or extreme situations but...it seems with 250 mb sigma level 200+ kt wind maxes trying to leave the planetary environment tangent to the curve ... pita-flop computing power may not be enough. We need infinite particular momentum determination at the plank scales - hahaha. No seriously, I think that the interaction between Zeta and the baroclinic wave space ..et al, is proving a challenge here - just a hunch. You can really see how Zeta is stretching the baroclinic field by the way it endures its PP and pulls along the warm front when looping the synoptic charts ... That's indicative of 'robbing' some diabatic aspect into the 2nd wave - which really is the planetary event through all this... not the 1st wave. *BUT* more specifically labling the error,... I think the models were not leaving enough H20 behind Zeta...and were processing ( perhaps ) too much evacuation of moisture from the column post Zeta's remnants leaving the MA... Now, ...perhaps they are seeing more left behind, and that crucially fuels the dynamics of the 2nd wave and viola! It's a nice tidy explanation...... Who's with me!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Do you give Bryce that tuff love as you interpret models to him . haha Because all we hear is how the nam over did snow, euro over did snow...when in fact sometimes the 10:1 maps aren't always right. I hate that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Do you give Bryce that tuff love as you interpret models to him . haha And he's excited, although I tempered his expectations here. Maybe a few miles west is better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 Jesus 3K NAM hammers BOS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 Caveat to the 10:1, if you had heavy rates to help cool to 31-32F, then those maps are closer to correct. However for low spots in SE MA, that requires a lot to come together, that's all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 29, 2020 Author Share Posted October 29, 2020 21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Kuchera map is prob more accurate in this scenario. oh god - ... don't bring gasoline to a match fight please... I know what you mean tho - it's wet urinal cake so a lower ratio may work with that particular product's arithmetic. I don't understand why a snow accumulation product can't do a sigma interval average based on ratios... It's seems like a simple series of interpretative algorithms to me.. This much snow growth deposition falling into x temperature --> 8::1 ... 10::1 ... 20::1 .... And if you have differential intervals and pesky warm(cool) layers, every time in the sounding the temperature variation occurs, calculate that interval... Function() exits doing one last calculation: total ration/N-intervals ... done. Probably ... 1,000 lines of Python. I could do it in f'n Oracle/DB syntax, and have a web-server XML read in the numbers for the graphics engine to go on and make its pretty maps. And you know...it might actually be useful - 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Caveat to the 10:1, if you had heavy rates to help cool to 31-32F, then those maps are closer to correct. However for low spots in SE MA, that requires a lot to come together, that's all. Coating is cool too... there is upside for more though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 What a gorgeous radar depiction. What a snowstorm this could be in mid-winter: 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Jesus 3K NAM hammers BOS. 4-5 area wide..wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Coating is cool too... there is upside for more though Yes. You being NW part of town helps. Could see Bob doing a Stein rain dance, while you reenact Winona Ryder dancing in the snow in Edward Scissor hands. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: 4-5 area wide..wow Temper that near coast, but still impressive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: And he's excited, although I tempered his expectations here. Maybe a few miles west is better. Take the boy to MQE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Because all we hear is how the nam over did snow, euro over did snow...when in fact sometimes the 10:1 maps aren't always right. I hate that. Yeah that is a pet peeve of mine...I often tell people. "no, the model did not overpredict the snow, the algorithm that interprets the model data did. Stop using that algorithm....i.e. clown maps" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 Let’s do it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 26 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Not to blow smoke at the assessment ... but, I did mention yesterday that the complex interaction between the diabatic thief in the night, Zeta ( kitchy ) may be playing havoc with the stream dynamics during mechanical phasing.... I think the whole Zeta thing ( frankly ) would have done this thing the better if the f'er just wasn't part of it... Or, fully sucked in...But this bi-pass thing I think was screwing up the models - owing also to the fact that the physics are probably stressed by the uber fast nature of the flow. It's a bit much - I don't know what point these models evolve technologically to handle exotic/or extreme situations but...it seems with 250 mb sigma level 200+ kt wind maxes trying to leave the planetary environment tangent to the curve ... pita-flop computing power may not be enough. We need infinite particular momentum determination at the plank scales - hahaha. No seriously, I think that the interaction between Zeta and the baroclinic wave space ..et al, is proving a challenge here - just a hunch. You can really see how Zeta is stretching the baroclinic field by the way it endures its PP and pulls along the warm front when looping the synoptic charts ... That's indicative of 'robbing' some diabatic aspect into the 2nd wave - which really is the planetary event through all this... not the 1st wave. *BUT* more specifically labling the error,... I think the models were not leaving enough H20 behind Zeta...and were processing ( perhaps ) too much evacuation of moisture from the column post Zeta's remnants leaving the MA... Now, ...perhaps they are seeing more left behind, and that crucially fuels the dynamics of the 2nd wave and viola! It's a nice tidy explanation...... Who's with me!!! Yes you did and we rode you. Pickles laughed 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 2 hours ago, Cold Miser said: Popcorn and front row seats in October. Nothing wrong with this. Considering it's been Covid talk since February, a bit of early season, buttered up popcorn, while sitting 6 feet from others in an rather empty theater is welcomed at this point. I was just enjoying the dilf vs milf tussle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yes you did and we rode you. Pickles laughed He tried to tell them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 NAM sucks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 My yard is not ready for this. Weekend temps look like I should probably clear the driveway if we get over 2". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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