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Oct 29-30 snow threat


Typhoon Tip
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8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That s/w looked better on the NAM. That’s a pretty impressive second part give the time of year.

It looks really good. I always worry about these late bloomer precip shields from a follow up s/w. Seen too many go down in flames at the last minute. 

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8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That s/w looked better on the NAM. That’s a pretty impressive second part give the time of year.

Those are some nice midlevel goodies on the NAM. Good snow growth look with lift in that 600mb range....and man that is cold in the low levels too 

 

16290176-9605-462E-92EC-A244DC6CBF8D.gif

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16 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Since when do we need a flash freeze to have snow accumulate(even if it’s wet before) when the rates are heavy enough?  Or were you being facetious? Lol

Not like it’s Jan 8th. I mean...an inch of rain on warmish ground followed by 1-2” of modelled snow. Like, that 1-2” melted probably just coats up the grassy knolls. Not like the plows will be out or maybe they will be...scraping pavement slush again. They do that very well. 

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6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Not like it’s Jan 8th. I mean...an inch of rain on warmish ground followed by 1-2” of modelled snow. Like, that 1-2” melted probably just coats up the grassy knolls. Not like the plows will be out or maybe they will be...scraping pavement slush again. They do that very well. 

Ya...I guess we’ll see.  Maybe it doesn’t snow at all?  I’m fully ready for that possibility too? 

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12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Not like it’s Jan 8th. I mean...an inch of rain on warmish ground followed by 1-2” of modelled snow. Like, that 1-2” melted probably just coats up the grassy knolls. Not like the plows will be out or maybe they will be...scraping pavement slush again. They do that very well. 

925's look like they will get the job done.  Its very cold in low levels. I would anticipate accums if we actually get a halfway decent period of lift. We wont need S++ to accumulate IMO. That is very nice Cold drain thru the column, anomalous not much different 925's than many winter systems. I will admit i really just looked from Pike to ASH. 

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6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

925's look like they will get the job done.  Its very cold in low levels. I would anticipate accums if we actually get a halfway decent period of lift. We wont need S++ to accumulate IMO. That is very nice Cold drain thru the column, anomalous not much different 925's than many winter systems. I will admit i really just looked from Pike to ASH. 

Some of the classic rules of thumb for heaviest snow don't look half bad. Like the -4C 850 isotherm being a proxy for where heaviest snow will fall. That more or less sits on Route 2 tomorrow night.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Rgem looks a bit better than 18z. Not as cold as other guidance though. It’s not giving much snow south of the CT/MA border for some reason. Its been that way for a few runs now though on the temp profiles. 

What's that meso that scooter sometimes references when we get closer in . 

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22 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Not like it’s Jan 8th. I mean...an inch of rain on warmish ground followed by 1-2” of modelled snow. Like, that 1-2” melted probably just coats up the grassy knolls. Not like the plows will be out or maybe they will be...scraping pavement slush again. They do that very well. 

The sun angle is mid February esque but if it snows hard enough in June it will stick.

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6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Some of the classic rules of thumb for heaviest snow don't look half bad. Like the -4C 850 isotherm being a proxy for where heaviest snow will fall. That more or less sits on Route 2 tomorrow night.

Just one model shown here, but I’ve been noticing it on other guidance too...bit of a crosshair sig showing up for a few hours on Friday morning....we’ll have to watch that. A frequent way to overperform...

 

425FDEBB-2423-4F81-829E-A4C2A0433CFD.png

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Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Do you have a link to that (even if its not in it's wheel house quite yet) i did a few minute search and can't find it on links or that site. 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/?model=href&product=snowfall_012h_mean&sector=ne

You can play around with the parameters at the top. It’s running right now so not out far enough yet. 

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/?model=href&product=snowfall_012h_mean&sector=ne

You can play around with the parameters at the top. It’s running right now so not out far enough yet. 

It's going to be big. ARW/NMM are really big snow totals, HRRR is decent, and NAM nest the lightest but not bad by any means. The NSSL WRF looks pretty amped on precip too. So I suspect the snow probabilities of the HREF take a big step forward.

That being said, these are mostly 10:1 snow algorithms, so grain of salt.

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