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Oct 29-30 snow threat


Typhoon Tip
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26 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

Will what do you think for the Stratton area?

What elevation ? Top of mountain should see a ALL snow event unless the modeling really amps things up from here . My guess is mid mountain in VT will get snow sticking by 6pm or so. Maybe below 1500' waits till 8pm ?

The soundings  on GFS/NAM area all snow at 3500'  (with precip starting mid afternoon) .  The bigger key looks to be how much precip falls . The first batch is where your scoring majority of your precip. The GFS barely gets much precip past Stratton and the NAM really gets it well into CNE.  The second batch is more confined to S VT (route 9 and South in SNE) 

 

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

To be honest, Kevin makes it easy for others to root against him. All we hear are the hills this, hills that. I’m surprised someone like Ryan hasn’t mailed him Ricin yet.

Eh’ despite raindrops in early and late season events, I’ll take my latitude over his elevation mid-winter.

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4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

A certain pony tailed denizen of West Chesterfield might beg to differ.  
Plus Ashburnham has me beat

so 3 goats in Ashburnham can claim more snow 

Ya look at that 2011 October storm Pete got buried with about 28"

This looks like a storm that could see nice amounts in elevated areas of Route 9 . They have best chance to cash in with both rounds. Models have Mitch flipping between like 7pm and 9pm. 

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4 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

The latest runs seem to like the idea of a finger of the good stuff tickling my house. I’m up for it. 

Yeah, I'm pretty sure that 1,500ft elevation zone through the northern third of New England will be snow for most of the duration... it's just a QPF issue.  I think that Montpelier to you line can get into the deeper moisture.  Might be too far north here.

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39 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

Will what do you think for the Stratton area?

I’m guessing where your place is at 1700 feet would see like 2-4/3-5 or so. There’s still a possibility it ends up higher but for now I’d keep it at those levels....I’d want to see another tick more amplified in southern stream before forecasting 6”+. Maybe above 2k or 2500 on the mountain would see 6”+ in the current setup. 

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