Baroclinic Zone Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Lol ... btw... I didn't write the title of this thread - it was done so on my behalf ...it's all good - but, for the record, I do not believe the October thing is really true - ... not until we have a bigger sample size. Fact of the matter is, the orbital perspective is both favorable and hostile to winter odds. Since 2000... we have been in an era - in general - that favors earlier cool snap... Packing pellet, virga -exploded CAA cumulous and/or outright snow supporting synoptic air masses have become far more commonplace than prior to then... Yet, in this time span, we have had both good winters and bad winters - I think that is the take away? It's really noise - but ...hm, we are human we can remember 2011 probably more clearly do to the acute irony lol You're welcome to change it, since you are now technically the thread starter. Ray initially started it, but when I merged the previous posts, whomever's posts was first chronologically in other thread, makes them the 1st post in the thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 The wheel has no memory, but it tattoos Oct snow totals on its arm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 3 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: agree, I was going to ask if it's statistically proven or not. The whole premise supposedly is that winter following the Oct snow myth, is basically mild and less snowy. But some years just had bad luck. 2009 was the Mid Atlantic winter. 2003 was also the PV winter where NYC had more siggy snows. So are we saying October snow results in both suppression, and warm winters? It makes no sense, and when you sample a place like ORH which has had more October snows compared to BOS...there isn't a correlation as far as I am aware of. ORH had lots of October snows in the 60s. I'd say those were decent winters. 2008 had October snow in NJ. We just had trace amounts (maybe a little more in CT?)..so just missed having that as a checkmark for October snow and getting a good winter to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 26, 2020 Author Share Posted October 26, 2020 7 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: agree, I was going to ask if it's statistically proven or not. Yeah...I don't believe so? But Will/others are at mastery of this/that I bet they've got some insights... I'm just basing it anecdotally and existential which of course carries a modicum of assurance risk - hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: No... So is Eric Fisher a good met? Why would he post that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 26, 2020 Author Share Posted October 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: You're welcome to change it, since you are now technically the thread starter. Ray initially started it, but when I merged the previous posts, whomever's posts was first chronologically in other thread, makes them the 1st post in the thread. Oh just leave it... it's funny - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said: So is Eric Fisher a good met? Why would he post that? Just to stir the weenies... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: Just to stir the weenies... probably, anyway glad to be waiting for the 12Z runs, it's been awhile since I've look forward to the models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Worcester had 7.1" in Oct 10 1979 .... ratter winter 11.4 in the Octobomb of 2011 (I had 22")... awful winter But, other winters have had October storms with decent seasonal totals It is just a running joke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Yeah its dumb. You can find just as many early season (not necessasarily extreme late October) events that results in a average - great winter. Nov 2002 Nov 2005 Nov 2012 Nov 2014 And how many October events that had plowable snow on LI were there? Like 1? Oct 2011, thats about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 26 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: May work for his area but not for mine. Farmington co-op has recorded measurable in Oct on 1/4 of their years - 32 of 128 - and totals for those snow seasons average 101% of normal, no real signal. For 1"+ Octobers (n=27) it's the same and for the 8 Octobers with 4"+ it's 103%. In my NNJ years only 1962 had measurable October snow. 62-63 was poor in NYC (16") but inland areas had 30-40% AN - the 4 locations closest to my old home had 46-60" compared to norms of 35-42. Take your pick... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 6 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: So is Eric Fisher a good met? Why would he post that? I think he reads this thread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said: I think he reads this thread. I bet allot do, it's a good source of info, the board and weenies also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 26, 2020 Author Share Posted October 26, 2020 6 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Just to stir the weenies... Aside from the fact ... and obvious, how does a geographical area tantamount to a pin prick on the fabric of space-time scale statistically guide the Universe - LI ??? really - it's meaninglessly tiny ... wtf - I mean just don't. Stirring or not, one just abases themself - But also, lucky for him ...the models don't have much snow on LI.. In fact, given the narrow corridor in which this whole thing mechanically plays out...it could snow 9" in S Vt. ...2" at Tolland, and 0 on LI and still be within a fair framework of being successfully forecast - so he's safe. I don't see a lot of "blue" QPF down there anyway .. a little, but that's white rain even in the Para G where that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 1 minute ago, tamarack said: May work for his area but not for mine. Farmington co-op has recorded measurable in Oct on 1/4 of their years - 32 of 128 - and totals for those snow seasons average 101% of normal, no real signal. For 1"+ Octobers (n=27) it's the same and for the 8 Octobers with 4"+ it's 103%. In my NNJ years only 1962 had measurable October snow. 62-63 was poor in NYC (16") but inland areas had 30-40% AN - the 4 locations closest to my old home had 46-60" compared to norms of 35-42. Take your pick... It doesn't work his area. When theres snow in NYC in October they average 30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Measurable ORH October snowfall and the subsequent winter total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 I think we go through this every October Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 26, 2020 Author Share Posted October 26, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Measurable ORH October snowfall and the subsequent winter total heh... like we're saying, it looks noisy - there may be some super structure there ... check back in with us in 100 year's worth of substantiated data - but by then we won't exist because of Climate change so what's the point... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: heh... like we're saying, it looks noisy - there may be some super structure there ... check back in with us in 100 year's worth of substantiated data - but by then we won't exist because of Climate change so what's the point... lol Just like winter snow climo sans October snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 26, 2020 Author Share Posted October 26, 2020 16 minutes ago, tamarack said: May work for his area but not for mine. Farmington co-op has recorded measurable in Oct on 1/4 of their years - 32 of 128 - and totals for those snow seasons average 101% of normal, no real signal. For 1"+ Octobers (n=27) it's the same and for the 8 Octobers with 4"+ it's 103%. In my NNJ years only 1962 had measurable October snow. 62-63 was poor in NYC (16") but inland areas had 30-40% AN - the 4 locations closest to my old home had 46-60" compared to norms of 35-42. Take your pick... Tam' ..it doesn't 'really' work anywhere - hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Speaking of blowing out the mice from the snowblower lol. Went out tried to start it. Found mice nested under the priming tube. Ate through the tube and had a big nest. I was able to replace the tube and fired it up for testing and just running. I had run it in August so they just built it. Little bastards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 26, 2020 Author Share Posted October 26, 2020 40 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: agree, I was going to ask if it's statistically proven or not. yeah no ...recently posting demo's the consensus on this... Just personal experience says no and the data at 1,000 K high, pure Earth ORH ( meaning not weirdly polluted by favoring either way...) shows the noise of it - see Will's post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patfan1987 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 So is Eric Fisher a good met? Why would he post that? He was replying to a question. He didn’t just tweet it to tweet it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 12z GFS looks a little more phased at hr 96 compared to hr 102 of the 6z run. The lead weaker s/w from Zeta zips out quick, but a piece of energy diving in at that time tries to phase with the bowling ball that is moving up from the south. I'd like to see that really blow up the low as it exits stage right. I believe it's the better chance for snow in SNE. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Right now, I would favor CNE for siggy snow from this, Its a thread the needle system that's going to require a few things to go right for places further north or south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 So---is anyone going to say the ground won't allow for accumulating snow in October? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Just now, dryslot said: Right now, I would favor CNE for siggy snow from this, Its a thread the needle system that's going to require a few things to go right for places further north or south. Yeah agreed. Although, given all the circumstances with this including a tropical...that certainly could change one way or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 12z GFS looks a little more phased at hr 96 compared to hr 102 of the 6z run. The lead weaker s/w from Zeta zips out quick, but a piece of energy diving in at that time tries to phase with the bowling ball that is moving up from the south. I'd like to see that really blow up the low as it exits stage right. I believe it's the better chance for snow in SNE. Look at how cold the GFS is in the latter part of the storm. That's like -5C at 900mb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Just now, moneypitmike said: So---is anyone going to say the ground won't allow for accumulating snow in October? If the sun warmeth thy nape of thy neck, the fertile soil will not permit an abundance of snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 1 minute ago, moneypitmike said: So---is anyone going to say the ground won't allow for accumulating snow in October? the ground won't allow for accumulating snow in October lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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