ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 UKMET quite a bit uglier than 00z....still tries for some light accumulations over interior SNE/CNE, but nothing like the widespread advisory snows that 00z had. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 The elevations up here in CNE/NNE may get some snow out of part one, The rest of us is rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: UKMET quite a bit uglier than 00z....still tries for some light accumulations over interior SNE/CNE, but nothing like the widespread advisory snows that 00z had. Ya this is quickly becoming a nothing burger for most...if you are looking for winter precip. But bring the rain, we can use it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Fwiw - I've been a fan/user of the NAM FOUS ...since back whence it was once the 'ETA' product in the early to mid 1990s, and I can tell you that these grid numbers are snowing a pretty good clip ( most likely ...), certainly .. relative to climo of premie 'Ween events those adjectives are true. Particularly visualized west of the city of Boston out over that first set of hills ( Arlington Hgts ...) out toward I-95... western side of Waltham/Newton ..up toward Burlington, down a ways ...but not sure when SE contamination plays in ... But those areas or probably over to moderate parachutes in this profile BOS LGA 36031989751 08119 090417 54070100 36073989822 12609 020425 64070410 42068967727 11922 070329 52049999 42026955927 02616 040321 57060107 48021959143 05718 100224 42009798 48024979244 -9214 090220 45020099 54015614124 -0519 140115 36019595 54010795313 -2212 153611 40040097 60000412219 00618 203508 32039695 60000765509 00719 213405 37060096 Even down near NYC is flipping/ed to snow at 48 hours... certainly fatties mixed in. But, the 'fanship' kicks in for me < 36 hours ...so - given to 'subtle' bumps N and Chris' mentioning that the spread was oriented back this way, I'm 'subtly' impressed by these sigma values centered on D 2 Tip, can you give me a link to the Fous data? I had a link but it doesn't work anymore. I liked looking at is too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Folks......She gone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 31 minutes ago, weathafella said: Time to change your avatar Not until Turkey Day. Then it changes back on St. Patrick's Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 4 minutes ago, Whineminster said: Not until Turkey Day. Then it changes back on St. Patrick's Day. So it’s hazy, hot and humid in November until T. Day? And then it’s hazy hot and humid in mid March too? Oh ya, that makes sense lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Ya this is quickly becoming a nothing burger for most...if you are looking for winter precip. But bring the rain, we can use it. Yeah we need the southern piece to come back a little stronger. I wouldn't toss the towel in yet on some light accumulations, but it seems less and less likely we're not going to get the higher end potential which could have been low end warning snowfall for a chunk of the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 28, 2020 Author Share Posted October 28, 2020 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah part 2 was the source of most of the snow in all the previous runs....there's a little bit of part 1 snow way up north on more recent runs, but we really want part 2 to crank to give some legit heavy snow....that CAA you talk about also enhances the frontogensis which would drive that heavier snow. I think two aspects are observably in play - from my seat ... 1 .. Zeta is stronger ... A stronger entity perhaps 'resists' ( for lack of better word only on the fly here ..) absorption, because it really just comes down to it having too much momentum in its own tortionality and so forth.. blah blah popsicle headache. But, this resistance is helping keep it more cohesively separate - helping to maintain it's individual integrity in the flow 2 .. the flow ( unfortunately...) is being exposed as 'too fast,' and a stronger Zeta is caught in it by a day .. day and half from now. As we get in tighter to the complex and fragile timing of stream interactions... this part is the real math -headache. If Zeta were weaker it "could be" absorbed more readily by the model capacity to do so. Its diabatic infusion would have probably been useful to the total physical interplay/phasing, because it would have helped the z-coordinate deepening which slows/ parks against the flow that critical amount that allows better phasing to happen. Without out something to slow ... stream bypass becomes more likely ... It could still do all that, and the models could just be a little lacking their ability here - the Euro I think may be useful... ... not 'you' per se in saying this ...but what folks need to realize is that phasing has a kind of temporal window - it's really no different than harmonizing waves -- referred to as constructive interference. If the streams outpace each other, the interference is destructive ... and it sounds like finger nails on chalk-board, not Tchaikovski so...instead of synergistically structuring the outcome ..the opposite happens. Not to harp but ... fast flow is crippling this ... it's been crippling more over recent winters too - .. but, folks probably getting tired of me bloviating why so I won't haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 I’m just not quite grasping the evolution of this. Is Zeta part 1 and ULL part 2? The whole thing looks rather mundane for having tropical energy injected into it. I guess if zeta stays a separate entity and exits stage right, it would tug the other along. I figured they would consolidate better. I gotta see this play out. Good setup to miss out on. Oh well winter is saved atleast. #NovaScotiaStrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewbeer Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Rain is winter precip, lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 28, 2020 Author Share Posted October 28, 2020 13 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Tip, can you give me a link to the Fous data? I had a link but it doesn't work anymore. I liked looking at is too I've been going to Suny ALB's atmos dept: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/gopher-local/albany/FOUS61 ...I don't know if there's a direct NWS/NOAA link ...like here: https://www.weather.gov/mdl/mos_getbull but, the former one provides our trifecta/geographic region - ... There are many sectors though and these grids ( as you know ) are presenting for many regions around the country ... try poking around in the MOS one at NWS - it may be lurking in there, but ...I haven't bothered to probe. I don't really care about the FOUS for Albequir. NM ...ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah we need the southern piece to come back a little stronger. I wouldn't toss the towel in yet on some light accumulations, but it seems less and less likely we're not going to get the higher end potential which could have been low end warning snowfall for a chunk of the interior. Yes, agreed. Not looking to be anything out of the ordinary for most folks. If you’re high up in SNE maybe some coatings for those folks. The rest of us just cold and wet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Well winter will be saved with no October snow.................... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 28, 2020 Author Share Posted October 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, Hazey said: I’m just not quite grasping the evolution of this. Is Zeta part 1 and ULL part 2? The whole thing looks rather mundane for having tropical energy injected into it. I guess if zeta stays a separate entity and exits stage right, it would tug the other along. I figured they would consolidate better. I gotta see this play out. Good setup to miss out on. Oh well winter is saved atleast. #NovaScotiaStrong That's what I'm trying to intimate ... the first wave is really an 'increasingly more conserved' Zeta vestige ... but at this point, the GGEM looks like TD moving S of LI in the process of melding into the warm frontal arm... But I think what that conservation of Zeta is doing is sort of analogous to 'robbing' the wave spaces from their ability to phase better. This may simply have been a Zeta story all along and the models were underdone with that assessment and ( maybe had to correct by buttboning the other signal... ) lol... kidding a little there. There's still time. Those NAM FOUS numbers ...if that plays out, it's snows though - maybe they won't. Who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 8 minutes ago, Brewbeer said: Rain is winter precip, lol. And usually the predominant winter precipitation most years. At least in SNE, and especially in E SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Ugh screw this and 2020 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 28, 2020 Author Share Posted October 28, 2020 God ...just once... all models bail... mood guided by wrenches and hammers and drill bits to the brink ... then have it snow anyway - please do that to people in purpose .. I beg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Ugh screw this and 2020 Lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 12z Euro a bit sharper then the 06z run, Bumped qpf up again further north in part 1. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 12z Euro improving some verss the 06z run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 As cool as it was having a good snow storm in October is was a royal PIA, no power or internet, couldn't work for a few days, lost a freezer full of meat. I have a genny now but wont shed a tear if we don't get another one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Euro is definitely better. Quite similar in result to yesterday's 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 1 minute ago, dryslot said: 12z Euro a bit sharper then the 06z run, Bumped qpf up again further north in part 1. Yeah that first wave is much further north with the precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 12z Euro looks like it may be back to a few inches of snow this run from the 06z run as some colder air works in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Some decent fronto snows this run for SNE....nothing huge, but probably a lot of folks seeing 1-2". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Clown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 That'll do pig...that'll do... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 28, 2020 Author Share Posted October 28, 2020 EE rule returns in triumphant glory! lol - 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: EE rule returns in triumphant glory! lol - Just like old times, eh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now