CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 I wouldn't expect any surprise solutions. From here on out, you'll want to see some bumps north and corrections that we noted in the s/w down south. You'll want that to maintain a sharper orientation and have it a bit further north for anything more than flakes or a coating. The whole system seems to have gotten a little more robust and further north on the 12z runs today. You won't see any massive shifts this close in, but they'll likely be more "bumps" north...especially with the second part on Friday morning. Speaking more for SNE here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 1 hour ago, PhineasC said: Decent change on 12z NAM. It didn't sink further south at least. We live and die with the ICON, lol. It gets the precip pretty far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 No help from the GFS with part 2, but part 1 more robust for the drought duo in SE MA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 28, 2020 Author Share Posted October 28, 2020 Fwiw - I've been a fan/user of the NAM FOUS ...since back whence it was once the 'ETA' product in the early to mid 1990s, and I can tell you that these grid numbers are snowing a pretty good clip ( most likely ...), certainly .. relative to climo of premie 'Ween events those adjectives are true. Particularly visualized west of the city of Boston out over that first set of hills ( Arlington Hgts ...) out toward I-95... western side of Waltham/Newton ..up toward Burlington, down a ways ...but not sure when SE contamination plays in ... But those areas or probably over to moderate parachutes in this profile BOS LGA 36031989751 08119 090417 54070100 36073989822 12609 020425 64070410 42068967727 11922 070329 52049999 42026955927 02616 040321 57060107 48021959143 05718 100224 42009798 48024979244 -9214 090220 45020099 54015614124 -0519 140115 36019595 54010795313 -2212 153611 40040097 60000412219 00618 203508 32039695 60000765509 00719 213405 37060096 Even down near NYC is flipping/ed to snow at 48 hours... certainly fatties mixed in. But, the 'fanship' kicks in for me < 36 hours ...so - given to 'subtle' bumps N and Chris' mentioning that the spread was oriented back this way, I'm 'subtly' impressed by these sigma values centered on D 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 GFS and CMC are both wetter here than last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 GGEM says we got a shot, ha. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Just now, powderfreak said: GGEM says we got a shot, ha. The bump north with part 1 is actually better for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 In general the trend is for a more consolidated part 1 at the expense of part 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The bump north with part 1 is actually better for you guys. Yeah that's where their snow will come from....unlike a couple days ago when they were getting the heavy stuff from part 2 on some of those runs. Part 2 is getting shredded and if it produces, it will likely only be for SNE and maybe southern CNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Look to be losing the second part so far on the 12z model suite, My guess is that may be the shot in the end, Problem is the cold air is not in place yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Models have shifted north with the low. Alot of rain incoming for the area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 We part 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: Look to be losing the second part 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: We part 2 ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 1 minute ago, Whineminster said: ?? See NAM/ Tip 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 1 minute ago, Whineminster said: ?? Time to change your avatar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: We part 2 In our dreams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, Whineminster said: ?? GFS has part 2 going ENE off the Virginia coast, I guess some think that will bring snow to the northeast......lol 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 23 minutes ago, PhineasC said: GFS and CMC are both wetter here than last night. You will get used nursing an injured back from shoveling all the snow that CMC gives in a winter. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: GFS has part 2 going ENE off the Virginia coast, I guess some think that will bring snow to the northeast......lol Wales? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 GEFS snow probabilities have been plummeting each run since yesterday to barely anything at 12z. Yesterday’s 18z prob 3”<GEFS: 12z Today: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Poof! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: GEFS snow probabilities have been plummeting each run since yesterday to barely anything at 12z. Yesterday’s 18z prob 3”<GEFS: 12z Today: To warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: To warm. No 2nd wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Just now, Ericjcrash said: No 2nd wave. First ones to warm up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 I’ll roll the dice on temps. Just get me some solid precip up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 11 minutes ago, dryslot said: GFS has part 2 going ENE off the Virginia coast, I guess some think that will bring snow to the northeast......lol Nope, Only one wish-caster from Tolland CT. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Just now, dryslot said: First ones to warm up here. Really need part 2 to bomb out to get that isallobaric flow cranking to advect in that low level cold air. The more meh it is, the more meh the LLVL CAA is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Really need part 2 to bomb out to get that isallobaric flow cranking to advect in that low level cold air. The more meh it is, the more meh the LLVL CAA is. We need 2 days back runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Just now, dendrite said: Really need part 2 to bomb out to get that isallobaric flow cranking to advect in that low level cold air. The more meh it is, the more meh the LLVL CAA is. Yeah part 2 was the source of most of the snow in all the previous runs....there's a little bit of part 1 snow way up north on more recent runs, but we really want part 2 to crank to give some legit heavy snow....that CAA you talk about also enhances the frontogensis which would drive that heavier snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 UK is gone too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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