weatherwiz Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 You get a 100+ 500mb jet streak rounding the base of the trough as it moves through the OV...couldn't ask for anything better in that regard. And we should continue to generate precip on the backside given this look 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Decent change on 12z NAM. It didn't sink further south at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: Decent change on 12z NAM. It didn't sink further south at least. You get a couple inches or so that run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 NAM now way more juiced with initial wave almost wanted to inject the ULL. Interesting to watch it play out, could be a surprise somewhere. Tonight could swing as the TC will be ashore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Nam tried to wrap up the second wave just a bit more. Verbatim even brings some snow here, locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 28, 2020 Author Share Posted October 28, 2020 Hmm.. may be some 'sour grapes' mentality affecting/effecting people's judgments and posted statements ... which is understandable - we're only human. But, .. this group of returning motley social media heads is biased, though we play games and 'act' unbiased much of the time hahaha I agree - in principle - regarding the thread titling. Having said that, I think there needs to be more responsibility at the individual level, to be objective on their own, and not be guided by 'headlines' So it goes both ways.. Buuut...being sensitive and realistic to the obvious, diplomacy in the word "threat" in the title ... probably wasn't so good. heh... Maybe that would have been better if it read, "potential" - leave it at that. Or maybe adding a qualifier like, '.. another October cold anomaly added to the growing number of them since 2000' - that would have conceptually prepped folks to engage in that conversation - rather than leaping past the reflective, thoughtfully engaging audience phase ... right into a mentality of frantic mouse-clicking, red-eyed dysfunctional obsession/storm fulfillment, don't past go, go directly to jail-cell of expectation one cannot be extracted or rescued from ... Lol I see this all the time... Once those cats get out of the bag, you can't herd them back in - people won't return to a objectivity. It's like there's a triggering mentality that is akin to trying to stop the bomb explosion after its detonation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Legro FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 The bowling ball down south held on longer this run as it ends up a couple tics further north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 The southern bowling ball was not as shredded this run as it gained latitude....so definitely an improvement, even if the overall result is still meh. Looks like an inch or two for many though over the interior. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Juiced. I'll take over 2" melted here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 I think if 925 and 850 can close off a bit farther west that might help draw in colder air in the llvls much faster and as long as the track stays par we would be able to lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 28, 2020 Author Share Posted October 28, 2020 22 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Regardless of what happens with snow this is going to be an incredible storm to watch unfold. This could still be quite significant in areas like the Berks...maybe NW CT? I would think though we're going to see some impressive dynamic cooling. Dual pol will be fun to watch with the melting layer crashing. The dynamics with this are through the roof. Also have to think there could be a flood threat (maybe coastal too...have to look at tides). Yeah... agreed. It's already substantiated the noteworthiness of the era/ hitherto conceptual layouts - but folks are a bit too addled by recent disenchanting model runs/ having to face the music and admit their expectations surged too far into a glops falling from tree limbs power outages vision of sugar-plumb winter fairies... lol Give it three weeks to marinade and folks'll be like ... oh, okay...it was proof of this tending to happen more in Octobers - sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Nam tried to wrap up the second wave just a bit more. Verbatim even brings some snow here, locally. Super cold stuff Friday morning...it has temps in the upper 20s here at 15z Friday...so even steady light snow is going to stick in that scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah... agreed. It's already substantiated the noteworthiness of the era/ hitherto conceptual layouts - but folks are a bit too addled by disenchantment for having to admit their expectations surged into a glops falling from tree limbs in power outages visions of suger-plumb winter fairies... lol Yeah I hope the "disappointment" of not getting damage doesn't overshadow the impressiveness of this system. This system is the legit definition of meteorology. So many processes at play and interactions. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 I’ll take snow in the air. It’s October after all. I’ll take snow in the air in December for that matter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 7 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Juiced. I'll take over 2" melted here. Yeah... some copious Stein buster amounts incoming for some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Super cold stuff Friday morning...it has temps in the upper 20s here at 15z Friday...so even steady light snow is going to stick in that scenario. Any flash freeze potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 28, 2020 Author Share Posted October 28, 2020 You know ...I am not sure if this matters but it seems like it should. This Zeta may even be a Cat 3 by landfall. Even if not... it may be through the upper end of Cat 2 and be quite the potent physical add-in to the music of the chorus here - I'm not sure if the models are handling that right. The GGEM ... for example, smears out a strong tropical storm looking feature ...and it's pressure depth is way shallow compared to what we already have, and this thing has stilll some development potential while already being stronger... It synoptic evolution in that smearing is to just sort of lose it along a warm frontal wave S of LI but ...what if this thing has to be integrating more physical exertion in reality - how does that change that... I see this kind uncertainty across the guidance bevy frankly - interesting... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Super cold stuff Friday morning...it has temps in the upper 20s here at 15z Friday...so even steady light snow is going to stick in that scenario. 30 in BOS verbatim...lol. Not sure about that unless it's going pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 28, 2020 Author Share Posted October 28, 2020 yeah...the more I look at this... I think the models - all of them.. have introduced a conflict in the handling between Zeta and the synoptic mechanics approaching in the fast flow. They are conserving Zeta more so cohesively separate and squirting it out ... It may be contrasting to intuition but .. I almost wonder if Zeta got absorbed it's diabatic influx might exotically deepen this thing, and that would cause height falls --> favors shorter duration phase proficiency in the steam interaction "machinery" With Zeta being less integrated ... it's sort of stealing the latent heat injection into a system that is flat and needs to have its inflow jets to get that height fall/feed-back process going in time. Zeta may be robbing some of that - .almost akin to an MCS rolling underneath and robbing a region from tornadoes as a weak metaphor - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 You can see the difference at hr 45 on the 12z vs hr 51 on the 6z at 500mb. Look at how the 12z run is almost more of a neutral tilt. The 6z run was more linear aligned from SW-NE. the 12z run has it aligned more N-S which allows the dynamics to spread the precip north and help curl it back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 19 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Any flash freeze potential? Yeah there might be, esp in higher terrain. I could see ORH county having some flash freeze issues if we have steady snow and 28-30F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 32 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Super cold stuff Friday morning...it has temps in the upper 20s here at 15z Friday...so even steady light snow is going to stick in that scenario. I was hoping the 2-4” here would be wet paste, but looks like it’s going to our usual 27-28 powder 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 3k not as impressed as 12k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: I was hoping the 2-4” here would be wet paste, but looks like it’s going to our usual 27-28 powder No, it would start off pretty wet even if it does cool to the upper 20s. But it might not ever get that cold either. You might only make it to like 31 or so....assuming we even have a period of steady snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 31 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Any flash freeze potential? Make sure you have the wooden doors and fireplace prepared to take it on. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 RGEM was maybe marginally better than 06z, not the more noticeable jump that the NAM had. Maybe an inch or so for elevated interior SNE....2-4/3-5 for areas like Mitch/N Berks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Hey Bob or Will ..Brian or whomever ... could you move this to the November thread - Done. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 My met ignorance here, but given the fluctuations in modeling, modeling vs. reality (i.e., Zeta's modeled vs actual pressure), combined with this wild jet for October, I'm flashing back to Philosophy 240 (an entire seminar on Hume) and wondering how much stock can be put into anything at this point. I guess my question is what upper or lower dynamics should be focused on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 8 minutes ago, PowderBeard said: My met ignorance here, but given the fluctuations in modeling, modeling vs. reality (i.e., Zeta's modeled vs actual pressure), combined with this wild jet for October, I'm flashing back to Philosophy 240 (an entire seminar on Hume) and wondering how much stock can be put into anything at this point. I guess my question is what upper or lower dynamics should be focused on? This. If there's such a disparity at initialization what good is the modeling anyway if it's so off from inception? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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