PhineasC Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: It increased the qpf a bit, But its warm. Maybe I can maximize the little precip I get up here. I don’t think light and dragged out will cut it for SNE. They needed the bomb from a couple days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: Maybe I can maximize the little precip I get up here. I don’t think light and dragged out will cut it for SNE. They needed the bomb from a couple days ago. It remains weak so its a loss for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Nice latent heat release from tropical storm should cook everyone from getting much snows. That wasn't the main cause of the snow, it was the system following it. That is getting kicked east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 17 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Thanks. Seems like this one is not for NNE. I still think you cash on the upslope machine Monday to Wednesday. Seriously 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Those 6z runs were ugly....we're gonna need a bounce back on 12z or it's probably not much snow out of this one. It gone but the east can use the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: That wasn't the main cause of the snow, it was the system following it. That is getting kicked east. Yea nothing to do with Zeta, it was the cold pocket ULL. Still worth watching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 18 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: That's what you look like right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The massive +AO is the main reason for the fast flow. That is what we've had the last few years. Paging Tip....lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Euro even 36 hrs ago had Zeta and the ULL closer, and the ULL much more robust. Even the EPS. Not impressed with the Euro lately. I suppose the GFS did too..but it wasn't carrying the juicy solutions as much as the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Paging Tip....lol He needs to make a t-shirt of some giant 500mb ridge with razor sharp teeth taking out the East Coast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It gone but the east can use the rain. Yes, said this two days ago..bring the rain. The snow was a long shot for sure. Don’t need it now. I agreed with you, keeping the expectations low on this for sure was wise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: He needs to make a t-shirt of some giant 500mb ridge with razor sharp teeth taking out the East Coast. Well, we got one event Hadleyed this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Yes, said this two days ago..bring the rain. The snow was a long shot for sure. Don’t need it now. I agreed with you, keeping the expectations low on this for sure was wise. Yup. Carry this thought thru the season too. Zero expectations with zero investment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yup. Carry this thought thru the season too. Zero expectations with zero investment. I’m not quite as down on the season as perhaps you are Luke(expecting a normal, or close to normal snow season for us), but I agree for the most part with your idea of very low expectations and Zero investment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, we got one event Hadleyed this season. Hadleyween on Saturday, 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 13 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I’m not quite as down on the season as perhaps you are Luke(expecting a normal, or close to normal snow season for us), but I agree for the most part with your idea of very low expectations and Zero investment. You can already see the raging +AO effect this faux snower. We can still get to normal snow though in an otherwise crappy winter. Did it in 18/19 when most of our totals came in Nov and Mar. I’ll be in nowcast mode all season...anything the models will show beyond D2 will be fake news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 56 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: That's what you look like right now. lol,lol, that's awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Man that snow threat was cute while it lasted. But hey.....winter is saved! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 6 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Man that snow threat was cute while it lasted. But hey.....winter is saved! Lol...exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: You can already see the raging +AO effect this faux snower. We can still get to normal snow though in an otherwise crappy winter. Did it in 18/19 when most of our totals came in Nov and Mar. I’ll be in nowcast mode all season...anything the models will show beyond D2 will be fake news. Agree. But that AO can change over time as well...that’s not a feature that is static over the whole winter to come. Although it sure seems like it’s been like that more than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Holy shit in. Oklahoma. Still freezing rain ,now with a thunderstorm. Epic disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 15 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: You can already see the raging +AO effect this faux snower. We can still get to normal snow though in an otherwise crappy winter. Did it in 18/19 when most of our totals came in Nov and Mar. I’ll be in nowcast mode all season...anything the models will show beyond D2 will be fake news. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Not to detract from this snow threat but that’s basically 10/11 but 1-2months earlier...so come mid/late Dec it vanishes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 28, 2020 Author Share Posted October 28, 2020 1 hour ago, OceanStWx said: Wouldn't shock me to see a bump north today. Ensemble sensitivity showing ~60% of the variance explained by a more amplified system. So maybe models overcorrected flat and will tick back some today. Not to parrot you're input here but just to add - sometimes we see this in the guidance, a tendency to 'over-correct' during the middling temporal leads. I mean we all know this.. But it is not a fixed timing, either. If a siggy system that verified, originally emerged in guidance on say .. D 10, invariably it probably spent some time if not a single cycle, aborted from said guidance .. usually midway en route, D 5 or 6 out from cyclone birth. I almost wonder if we went back and scoped out some 'positive busts' that were particularly noteworthy, if somewhere out among the din of ensemble members .. there might have been a version and cycle that did see it - but lost it. Perhaps it was merely too obscured by the mean and/or on-going op. versions stealing away deterministic attention ... It seems to be relative to the pattern in play, too. Like, if some huge ginormous SD event requiring a lot of massive multi-faceted, hemispheric teleconnector domain spaces be involved in it's integrated emergence ..the 'opp correction' interval may be further out in time. That may be 'geo-physical' in nature tho .. having that many moving parts in sync means there is a 'loud' signal, such that by virtue of that alone the modeling uncertainty as it relates to permutation and time constraining ... it would intuitively push all that farther out - But this is a middling cyclone at best - tho... some solutions 3 days ago we might have had 980 mb -ranged, plumbing in the NAM at near bombogen thresholds passing ESE of ISP ..notwithstanding. It is possible that we bring it back - even partial is a conceptual win for this present line of thinking... As an aside, reiterating: it seems we are tending to disrupt cyclones in this sort of 'mid-grade' construction/Norwegian Model, in recent behavior modes. It may be subtle ..and is not true absolutely, but it seems there are more multi-nodal 'pearling' of low along baroclinic axis with isentropic lift flopping over on the polarward side as events. When/if S/W jet mechanics can overcome the fast absorbing factorization of the flow ... they are by virtue so powerful enough that the low they develop is Halifaxian 2019 crazies - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 14 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Not to detract from this snow threat but that’s basically 10/11 but 1-2months earlier...so come mid/late Dec it vanishes. Prolific Dec snows and then we shut off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Not to parrot you're input here but just to add - sometimes we see this in the guidance, a tendency to 'over-correct' during the middling temporal leads. I mean we all know this.. But it is not a fixed timing, either. If a siggy system that verified, originally emerged in guidance on say .. D 10, invariably it probably spent some time if not a single cycle, aborted from said guidance .. usually midway en route, D 5 or 6 out from cyclone birth. I almost wonder if we went back and scoped out some 'positive busts' that were particularly noteworthy, if somewhere out among the din of ensemble members .. there might have been a version and cycle that did see it - but lost it. Perhaps it was merely too obscured by the mean and/or on-going op. versions stealing away deterministic attention ... It seems to be relative to the pattern in play, too. Like, if some huge ginormous SD event requiring a lot of massive multi-faceted, hemispheric teleconnector domain spaces be involved in it's integrated emergence ..the 'opp correction' interval may be further out in time. That may be 'geo-physical' in nature tho .. having that many moving parts in sync means there is a 'loud' signal, such that by virtue of that alone the modeling uncertainty as it relates to permutation and time constraining ... it would intuitively push all that farther out - But this is a middling cyclone at best - tho... some solutions 3 days ago we might have had 980 mb -ranged, plumbing in the NAM at near bombogen thresholds passing ESE of ISP ..notwithstanding. It is possible that we bring it back - even partial is a conceptual win for this present line of thinking... As an aside, reiterating: it seems we are tending to disrupt cyclones in this sort of 'mid-grade' construction/Norwegian Model, in recent behavior modes. It may be subtle ..and is not true absolutely, but it seems there are more multi-nodal 'pearling' of low along baroclinic axis with isentropic lift flopping over on the polarward side as events. When/if S/W jet mechanics can overcome the fast absorbing factorization of the flow ... they are by virtue so powerful enough that the low they develop is Halifaxian 2019 crazies - Yeah this one was always a bit precarious with the potential to get shredded. I had replied to Ray two days ago that I was more concerned with that than a zonked system trying to run into the Hudson Valley. That said, this could easily come back enough to produce some significant winter sensible wx conditions. We'll just have to see if the ULL can gain some latitude without getting shredded too quickly. Obviously yesterday's guidance was allowing this more than overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 23 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Holy shit in. Oklahoma. Still freezing rain ,now with a thunderstorm. Epic disaster Wish we lived there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 34 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Not to detract from this snow threat but that’s basically 10/11 but 1-2months earlier...so come mid/late Dec it vanishes. Nah..lag time Luke, nothing hits and vanishes in an instant. Isn’t it when these indices are transitioning is when we usually(not always obviously) more or less get our winter events.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Looks like a better 12z Nam run, SLP is 3mb stronger then the 06z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Regardless of what happens with snow this is going to be an incredible storm to watch unfold. This could still be quite significant in areas like the Berks...maybe NW CT? I would think though we're going to see some impressive dynamic cooling. Dual pol will be fun to watch with the melting layer crashing. The dynamics with this are through the roof. Also have to think there could be a flood threat (maybe coastal too...have to look at tides). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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