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Oct 29-30 snow threat


Typhoon Tip
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13 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

These are glaring biases that I really hope I get to see 'some' form of atonement as we near a release time for this Para- G/beta version. ...A model with a fast bias ... cloaked ( circumstantially ) by virtue of a hemisphere that really has been speeding up... 

So we're obviously testing GFSv16 now (hence the parallel version showing up on websites). One of the stated strengths of v16 is:

Quote
  • Improved 500 hPa AC scores in the medium range (better with synoptic pattern)
    • Some indication that GFSv15 progressive issue has been improved
    • Improved position of relevant frontal boundaries

I think the second sub-bullet is what you're driving at. So hopefully the test period here will support this perceived strength. 

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37 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Not really any changes overnight which is good. Nice early season snow event Friday .  Probably a nice strip of 1-3 or 2-4”

Based on looking at nothing but overnight post count I imagine it will be in next hour that someone says “it’s a win in October if we see  flakes (probably Scott who was never gonna see accumulation). I figured CT had a decent look in this , esp western half 

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49 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Not really any changes overnight which is good. Nice early season snow event Friday .  Probably a nice strip of 1-3 or 2-4”

That's funny. The Mets here in CT don't think we still see any accumulation....they are saying maybe something on the grass. I'm fine with that though. 

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25 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Based on looking at nothing but overnight post count I imagine it will be in next hour that someone says “it’s a win in October if we see  flakes (probably Scott who was never gonna see accumulation). I figured CT had a decent look in this , esp western half 

It was always, nice to see flakes again, with fantasy runs showing up bigger dreams . I am sure you will climb Mt. Mrs Doubtfire to see some.

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29 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Based on looking at nothing but overnight post count I imagine it will be in next hour that someone says “it’s a win in October if we see  flakes (probably Scott who was never gonna see accumulation). I figured CT had a decent look in this , esp western half 

What were you expecting?

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30 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol here we go again with the starting snow threads 5 days in advance. We never learn. Should implement a 3 day max for pinning specific threat threads. The new radio show Jinx

This one was more like 3.5-4 days out. Ray started it Monday morning (though we added previous posts to it from the main October thread so it looks like it was started on Sunday)

Anyways. This is still a threat for a few inches. 

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6z GFS is basically a little ending as snow for some in SNE.  Euro seems the more aggressive model now, but not sure how I feel about that.

 

Edit, I guess the Ukie did too. I'm not sure it's much to do with Zeta as it is more with the ULL in TX. That thing is getting the boot east.

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40 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol here we go again with the starting snow threads 5 days in advance. We never learn. Should implement a 3 day max for pinning specific threat threads. The new radio show Jinx

We should be starting "storm" threads if the likelihood is there.  Shame on you for thinking it was a snow storm thread.

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