CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 3 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said: The Rev is off to a fantastic start this season Not even a transition, Just right to winter, until you read the November thread. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Looks like we may put the myth to the test. Drum beats getting louder on this one. #NovaScotiaStrong 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 4 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said: The Rev is off to a fantastic start this season Watches up by PM for all of CT. Warnings tomorrow. I can hear the salting trucks already prepping. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 1 minute ago, Hazey said: Looks like we may put the myth to the test. Drum beats getting louder on this one. #NovaScotiaStrong Well if ‘11-‘12 is indeed on the way like a few think, then let’s just get her done now and enjoy 50’s and 60’s the rest of the cold/winter season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 26, 2020 Author Share Posted October 26, 2020 5 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Gotta get that dopamine rush mm... not that same phenomenon - keep tryin' lol no I get what ur saying but exciting to cover the first is an entirely different phenomenon. It won't ( for me ) languish moods if it doesn't work out - because there is no codependency on it to modulate one's sense of well-being ...It's part of the psychotropic e-addiction problem in society/ civility regardless, covered recently in documentary et al - this isn't just me ...where people are depending upon positive feedback in a soulless society of shallowing narcissists... sounds like a good 'cultural implosion' model for a Sci Fi novel but tho I take liberties ( poetically ) in that description, the problem with personal reliance on the web for both re enforcing personally ideologies, to creating 'faux happiness' was covered in 60-minutes, and it documented elsewhere and is real - again..it's not just me. Although..I started noticing this phenomenon 10 years ago prior to it's popularization in marginal observation sciences... Anyway, I don't wanna derail this ... It's exciting to cover the season's first multi-faceted synoptic event ...nothing more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 14 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said: The Rev is off to a fantastic start this season If I was a consultant to Eversource, I’d be frantically trying to get them to make phone calls to all the Midwest and southeast contractors they brought in here after Iglesias. 6-12” of paste will knock em down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 57 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: That would exceed my entire '19-'20 season haha. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 13 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Watches up by PM for all of CT. Warnings tomorrow. I can hear the salting trucks already prepping. It's not real until Ryan throws up the first alert icon on his extended forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Will Eversource start lining up out of state crews today? No, they’ll say they had no idea this was coming and your power will be out for 2 weeks 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 4 minutes ago, Hoth said: That would exceed my entire '19-'20 season haha. Marion, don't look at it! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 26, 2020 Author Share Posted October 26, 2020 1 hour ago, Ericjcrash said: Big LOL That's a great QPF impression of where the mid level frontogenic forcing is located... as at the time of this frame, there is a lagged mid level just max nosing N of that llv baroclinic wedge along where the cyclone is nodal... But that is UVM driving lift up the frontal slope aloft and causing that subtle magenta tinting heavy snow band to spill out along that axis there in interior SNE... It's not a declaration/ .. forecast for that to actually occur, just what the model is illustrating/ physical plausibility of the virtual event it creates. But, this sort of phenomenon DOES happen sometimes... and warm ground or not, if such a band evolves that probably 3 solid hours of S+ there and thunder clap or two as well, you'd be accumulating - probably it ends with glops clopping off the off trees and powerlines... and then star lit late evening we actually cement things over night.... crazy - but ... timing wins with that cold air availability working under "mid level magic" as it were 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 4 minutes ago, snowman21 said: It's not real until Ryan throws up the first alert icon on his extended forecast. lol - I did just look at the Euro after being away all weekend. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Oddly enough, this does still share some vestigial commonality with those 380 hour GFS snowicane projections. This end of October period is always interesting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: That's a great QPF impression of where the mid level frontogenic forcing is located... as at the time of this frame, there is a lagged mid level just max nosing N of that llv baroclinic wedge along where the cyclone is nodal... But that is UVM driving lift up the frontal slope aloft and causing that subtle magenta tinting heavy snow band to spill out along that axis there in interior SNE... It's not a declaration/ .. forecast for that to actually occur, just what the model is illustrating/ physical plausibility of the virtual event it creates. But, this sort of phenomenon DOES happen sometimes... and warm ground or not, if such a band evolves that probably 3 solid hours of S+ there and thunder clap or two as well, you'd be accumulating - probably it ends with glops clopping off the off trees and powerlines... and then star lit late evening we actually cement things over night.... crazy - but ... timing wins with that cold air availability working under "mid level magic" as it were Yeah, that run has some serious cold. Mid 20s in the band. Mid levels plenty cold as well. October powder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: If I was a consultant to Eversource, I’d be frantically trying to get them to make phone calls to all the Midwest and southeast contractors they brought in here after Iglesias. 6-12” of paste will knock em down They expect Stein to eat away at the snow growth. Just pixie dust as it reaches the surface. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Just now, Hoth said: Oddly enough, this does still share some vestigial commonality with those 380 hour GFS snowicane projections. This end of October period is always interesting. And we laughed, who would've thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 3 hours ago, OceanStWx said: Our solutions are obviously snow or no snow, but the ensembles definitely seemed to be splitting into two camps of goose eggs and minor accumulations. Some triple bunners, but we toss those for now. Ensemble sensitivity had most of the variance tied to amplification of the system. So more amped may bring more QPF, but also more warm air. Flatter could also whiff completely (more so up this way). Gotta thread it, but cautiously optimistic right now. great explanation of this on FB this morning BTW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 9 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: And we laughed, who would've thought. Tip called it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said: Tip called it Great call if it works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 26, 2020 Author Share Posted October 26, 2020 42 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Yeah, that run has some serious cold. Mid 20s in the band. Mid levels plenty cold as well. October powder. Yeah... as an aside ... we seem to be in an era where ( perhaps 'synergistically' ) anomalous results are more so favored. It's interesting... but the word "anomalous" means whatever's in question is an expression of Standard Deviation, which should be rarer by convention. But what it is, is that we are emerging out of a period of relative predictability and climate quiescence...and perhaps indicative of a changing climate; these sort of things or more likely to occur moving forward. We have to remember ...statistics are based upon what has happened, and then we base a prediction/ .. event on that data set, but that by virtue of being in stable past, means that it may also be illogical to apply said data set to the present or future - But blah blah ...I just wanted to say that ... it could "powder" out ... It could - I don't think so? but it could ...because sometimes if/when an event is going to just pour over an SD threshold it just goes ahead and hammers the location completely out of whack to really put stank on it... So yeah, it's the end of October - we 25 F in aggregates getting even small of all things. But even in 2011 event, it was hard to get "that" kind of snow going and it's more likely this wends its way into a 31.5er if we really get to a synoptic event. I'm sure you/we all know this stuff..just sayn' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 LET'S NOT BLOW OUR LOAD IN OCTOBER!!! 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 26, 2020 Author Share Posted October 26, 2020 40 minutes ago, Hoth said: Oddly enough, this does still share some vestigial commonality with those 380 hour GFS snowicane projections. This end of October period is always interesting. ..ah, very vestigial ... it's just imho but ...I see that kind of cane-fusion mania as a modern model propensity to do this in the autumns.. moreso an artifice of modeling, in other words. I've been harping ... perhaps annoyingly ( lol ) but since the late 1990s, when model resolution and total platform expansion and ensemble this and all these different physics go involved, and then the temporal ranging of modeling really fell over the distant horizon, we've been seeing these exotic time range virtual plausibility scenarios like that. That's A B ... I think this 'potential' - already in place and thus humbly I suggest is already successful as early recognition we made awhile ago - is really based on a recognizing something else entirely than modeling behavior. I think it reflects a model hemispheric change in transition seasons, and I hypothesize it has to do with velocity in the westliers being augmented - and that is driving NE Pac tipping flow/ continental folding of patterns earlier in autumns ... This is causing cold loading events in the Canadian shield. I don't know if this is climate change -related... ? It's a fantastic question but...it could also be part of the multi-decadal Arctic Oscillation curve, which I believe reasonably well positively correlates with the PDO/AMO and the Solar Cycle... All three of these overlays show they tend to move together, and they all flag -EPO and -NAO/ flipping these neggie - The interesting aspect is that the NAO has been lagged and/or retardedly out of sequence ... but therein' is the velocity saturation in the flow...I think it is stretching the field and the NAO is fragile compared to the majestic Pac domain region and the latter I think denies the former it's blocking at times...when the flow is fast and that is favoring/sending a progressive signal down wind of the Pacific maelstrom. ...it's a lot of intuitive jargon and supposition - not averring this is 'the way of the world' just some thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 It snowed in October 2002. That wasn’t a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 26, 2020 Author Share Posted October 26, 2020 14 minutes ago, Whineminster said: LET'S NOT BLOW OUR LOAD IN OCTOBER!!! Lol ... btw... I didn't write the title of this thread - it was done so on my behalf ...it's all good - but, for the record, I do not believe the October thing is really true - ... not until we have a bigger sample size. Fact of the matter is, the orbital perspective is both favorable and hostile to winter odds. Since 2000... we have been in an era - in general - that favors earlier cool snap... Packing pellet, virga -exploded CAA cumulous and/or outright snow supporting synoptic air masses have become far more commonplace than prior to then... Yet, in this time span, we have had both good winters and bad winters ... down-time of said Fall seasons - I think that is the take away? It's really noise - but ...hm, we are human we can remember 2011 probably more clearly do to the acute irony lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Just now, NorEastermass128 said: It snowed in October 2002. That wasn’t a bust. Yeah, let's move the Debbie's to the banter thread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Lol ... btw... I didn't write the title of this thread - it was done so on my behalf ...it's all good - but, for the record, I do not believe the October thing is really true - ... not until we have a bigger sample size. Fact of the matter is, the orbital perspective is both favorable and hostile to winter odds. Since 2000... we have been in an era - in general - that favors earlier cool snap... Packing pellet, virga -exploded CAA cumulous and/or outright snow supporting synoptic air masses have become far more commonplace than prior to then... Yet, in this time span, we have had both good winters and bad winters - I think that is the take away? It's really noise - but ...hm, we are human we can remember 2011 probably more clearly do to the acute irony lol agree, I was going to ask if it's statistically proven or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 12 minutes ago, Whineminster said: LET'S NOT BLOW OUR LOAD IN OCTOBER!!! I know for many of you men, that's what she said. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 I kiddingly use the 6" of snow at ORH in October = ratter as a joke. It has only happened twice in recorded history... 1979 and 2011 both were ratters, but statistically meaningless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 4 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: agree, I was going to ask if it's statistically proven or not. No... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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