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Oct 29-30 snow threat


Typhoon Tip
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Seasonal lag and precession is taking place as part of this era, too... It's not just Octobers doing these early snows ...it's April and Mays doing late one's too - 

though, we haven't had as many late ones, still .. personally noting more packing pellet/snow flurry May days in recent decades just the same - way more than the prior decades of the mid and latter part of last century.   Obviously there have been some prior to 2000 ... '77 and so forth - but just that uptick in annoying late cold face-smack flakes that do nothing but increase domestic disturbance calls to local PD is statistically noteworthy -

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24 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Having to hang my hat on the GGEM is not a good thing.

Hopefully something changes in the next couple days for up here.

It’s a good warm up for life in NNE.  Hang on the GGEM and the general rule of when the forum is buzzin’, we are usually watchin’.  But nice to track a winter event and see the usual faces popping back up.  Also no Stein talk after the larvae hatches is a good thing too.

Hopefully they can trend this back into a more intense CCB, that would spread the snow out more in SNE.

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1 hour ago, Bostonseminole said:

any snow is a win before Dec 1 st IMHO so I'm pretty happy with 1" or 6" .. even rain is fine lol, get rid of this drought.

Yep...but I think we may have to now- cast this one as an afterthought - what's new.   It's just riding that edge where it could tip either way

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32 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I don't have really detailed maps but it did look like the EPS were a little more robust than the OP run.

Yeah,... I got the impression .. I just told Bostonseminole that this was a now-caster - it's just these edge- jobs want to flop either direction... This sort of smacks as 4-6" ...or flakes in the air.. but not much in between LOL

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Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

imagine being down to the RPM and NAVGEM. Thats when you know you need serious professional help.

Powderfreak during the 2015 run started unraveling pretty badly....he started with models like the GGEM but by the 3rd or 4th event that was giving Boston 20", he was down to randomly posting a single ARW SREF member and talking about how great it was for BTV/N VT. You could just picture him with a bottle of scotch looking for consolation and wondering how Boston turned into Stowe.

 

I do think there is still room for some big changes in this one. There's still some reasonable ensemble spread. But I'd think we'd want to see it start happening by tonight or tomorrow morning if there's going to be a big move.

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10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Powderfreak during the 2015 run started unraveling pretty badly....he started with models like the GGEM but by the 3rd or 4th event that was giving Boston 20", he was down to randomly posting a single ARW SREF member and talking about how great it was for BTV/N VT. You could just picture him with a bottle of scotch looking for consolation and wondering how Boston turned into Stowe.

I do think there is still room for some big changes in this one. There's still some reasonable ensemble spread. But I'd think we'd want to see it start happening by tonight or tomorrow morning if there's going to be a big move.

Huddled in a corner on the ground, bottle next to me, iPhone in hand hitting refresh on the ARW SREF members off E-Wall.... good times.  Those m'fers pumping out 970mb lows over BOS like candy with deform bands over ART/MSS, all the while Scooters wife is wandering the neighborhood looking for him thinking he's drowned in the snow somewhere in Weymouth.

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