CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Maybe put the last few posts from the other thread in here? Diff between this storm and October 2011 is quite significant. 2011 had the airmass in place. In this case cold is draining into it, so a lot of the QPF is liquid for awhile. CNE/NNE different story potentially. At least in 2011, only the euro showed it this far out. This time around all guidance has something. Thread the needle as many have said, but it's not out of the question many see their first flakes and have at least their first accumulation. Otherwise, winter '11-'12 on its way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The Para looks way too cold. Mid 20s to HVN? Powder for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Just now, Ericjcrash said: Powder for all. Powder up the nose with that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 7 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Big LOL Nice eye candy there...but that ain’t happening. That would be a major winter storm for everyone but the cape on that depiction. I’ll Sell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Ironically the system before 10/29/11 was also a transition rain to snow event on 10/27/11....we had about 2-3" in ORH. This looks juicier and higher ceiling though. Esp for interior elevated areas in CNE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 6z EPS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 14 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Big LOL Heh.... the accumulation map is something. Congrats on 2 feet for Kevin. Even tops a foot into interior se mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Talk about being all over the place, ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Just got to keep it below 6” in ORH. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Beautiful BM track on para. That's getting saved for eternity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Early thoughts 6-12”? 3 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Just got to keep it below 6” in ORH. Lol Yeah I can't say I'm in the mood for anything crazy. I'd rather the snow in winter and keep the pack around for some fun activities. At least this falls near a weekend so we can enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Just started looking at this, looks pretty interesting especially for folks about 1K, I would be happy with flakes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Should have plenty of moisture to work with. Its the remnants of Zeta being sucked up into that bowling ball. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Fir Flattner and Oak Obliterator enroute 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 This thing really gets the squeeze play put on it as it tries to exit stage-right....the bowling ball getting pinched by the northern shortwave matters because as this happens, it's going to want to produce some crazy frontogenesis. So we'll have to keep an eye on that if it's still looking similar as we get closer. That's why some solutions produce these really intense bands of snow for a few hours. They are ML fronto bands. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Pulled in the posts from this AM. Tippy gets the nod now as the thread starter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 26, 2020 Author Share Posted October 26, 2020 53 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That airmass is legit, if the system taps into that on the backside, then it's going to snow right to the coast. It's a needle-threader for sure though....you're trying to time the shortwave so that the CCB is over the region while the high is building in. Most guidance actually shows this so there's decent agreement. It's just a precarious setup and they could lose it. yup! ...I cited these notions too earlier on last eve and how this has 'no margin for error' It's a phasing deal but doing so thru an unusually narrow longitude - interesting... There's actually three entities btw ... The Para G and oper. G are both coherent with Zeta remnants peeling S of LI ... Could bring some IB over the nascent polar front and then we "lull" ( maybe ...) whatever is falling at that time - probably goes to raw mist... But then the N/stream couples and subsumes the S/streams ... and #3 crucially as you said, 'legit cold' loading arrives .. It's hard to even pull a barrier/drain jet out of that synopsis, though there's likely to be 925 mb accelerations around typical topography. But the point is .. with whole region C-NE --> S seeming to wall at once, that signifies a deep-ish layer that means bidness' .. I could see people 44 F in light to moderate rain, then cat pawing at 39 when I see that... start going to parachutes at 37 in that look, shedding T's in a pulse and subtle backing wind direction. As an aside, we're seeing unusual temperature variance either side of ambient polar fronts in recent autumns. < 0 C 850s temps reside where mere 300 naut mi S still supports 80 F ...spanning along vast stretches of the continent .. Autumn extremes are not hugely unusual, but that 'not huge' is becoming 'more usual' in autumns since ~ 2000... 62 F like days with clouds and blase slope sun, and then 37 with cat paws the next day is deceptively non-dramatic and slips under awareness in a modernity that is perhaps too distracting/culturally to think of it as significant .. or perhaps 'jolting' is just becoming too commonplace in itself to take note of it. But the first 30 years of my life, it was not that frequent that mere 24 hourly temp changes needed to be nearing 30 F as frequently as it has in the last 20 years... way more common than it used to be. Even doing so spanning 72 hours.. it's relative to all temporal scales ... increased frequency of larger variance. altho today 'feels' like a step down drab Either way, it's always exciting to cover the season's first snow ..even if it is just in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Seems legit.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Will 6-12” help dent the drought? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Get those gennys fired up The leaves are really hitting the accelerator up here in dropping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Will 6-12” help dent the drought? Nah, it's high ratio stuff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 This reminds of of those srn stream systems with the crazy nrn edge fronto bands. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: This reminds of of those srn stream systems with the crazy nrn edge fronto bands. Send it right over my house plz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Either way, it's always exciting to cover the season's first snow ..even if it is just in the air. Gotta get that dopamine rush Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 26, 2020 Author Share Posted October 26, 2020 39 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Ironically the system before 10/29/11 was also a transition rain to snow event on 10/27/11....we had about 2-3" in ORH. This looks juicier and higher ceiling though. Esp for interior elevated areas in CNE. That is a fascinating coincidence ...or is it... ? It's wildly differing topically to mention: but...I'm noticing that there is always a tropical entity evacuating out of the lower latitudes of the SW Atl Basin when the models are kinking the the flow and drilling CAA events across SE Canada... It's hard to separate the chicken and the egg but it seems like the there's a super-set of equations that kind of signals favorable tropics prior to the pattern actually modulating into a continental buckle - ...just sayn' lol But yeah... there may in fact be reproducible "quasi reduxes" to this shit - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Will Eversource start lining up out of state crews today? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 The Rev is off to a fantastic start this season 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 26, 2020 Author Share Posted October 26, 2020 23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Will 6-12 3" lower els to 6" above 800' elevations help dent the drought? Probably the 1 to 1.5" of strat cool moderate banding QPF rain helps more .. but any transition to snow would be wet and will contain a decent water content so it all helps to bring Humanity back from the dessicated brink of mortality ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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