OceanStWx Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 Meh, GFS is a little deceptive across southern NH anyway. Soundings are warm at the surface, but it's plenty cold aloft for snow. Ain't going to be a crusher though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 Does Kevin still love this new FV3 core? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 Euro looks to handle Zeta much more like Nam thru landfall...slower ..deeper and then after landfall (12z Friday ) couple hundred miles SW of GFS (like Nammy) SO I'm hoping to see this in 0z suite and then i'll be more confident in something juicy. I mean landfall isn't that far off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 Early take on GEFS is danger, Carlos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 Just now, weathafella said: Early take on GEFS is danger, Carlos. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 Reggie looks aggressive. At the end of its range of course #NovaScotiaStrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: ? imagine the PBP later lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: ? Really nice at 72 then opened up and scooted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: imagine the PBP later lol On my phone while walking in the hood... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 The more i look at things You have 2 camps GFS/HMON/HRWF take Zeta in significantly faster, which leads to more of a NE direction after landfall (12z Thur- position near ATL) and not phased and whiff OTS or scraper EURO/NAM /UKMET take Zeta in Significantly slower, and draw her more north after landfall to a position (at 12z Thur near Over E central MISS or W ALA border (several hundred miles SW of other camp) and phase more leading to a system that is juicier further north and slower NHC favors first camp for now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 Actually that jet streak on GEFS is interesting. I screwed up the times and the evolution. Stand by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 Jeff you up? Good Crown night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 17 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: The more i look at things You have 2 camps GFS/HMON/HRWF take Zeta in significantly faster, which leads to more of a NE direction after landfall (12z Thur- position near ATL) and not phased and whiff OTS or scraper EURO/NAM /UKMET take Zeta in Significantly slower, and draw her more north after landfall to a position (at 12z Thur near Over E central MISS or W ALA border (several hundred miles SW of other camp) and phase more leading to a system that is juicier further north and slower NHC favors first camp for now I'd bet on the second camp. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 Need to turn the clocks back already...the extra hour of euro waiting is a killer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 21 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: The more i look at things You have 2 camps GFS/HMON/HRWF take Zeta in significantly faster, which leads to more of a NE direction after landfall (12z Thur- position near ATL) and not phased and whiff OTS or scraper EURO/NAM /UKMET take Zeta in Significantly slower, and draw her more north after landfall to a position (at 12z Thur near Over E central MISS or W ALA border (several hundred miles SW of other camp) and phase more leading to a system that is juicier further north and slower NHC favors first camp for now 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'd bet on the second camp. NHC does great work, but it is a known that the GFS/GEFS has a right of track bias and a fast bias when storms are headed north. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 29 minutes ago, Hazey said: Reggie looks aggressive. At the end of its range of course #NovaScotiaStrong Pretty toasty though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 6 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Need to turn the clocks back already...the extra hour of euro waiting is a killer. I'm at work so it doesn't matter to me but I definitely know what you mean.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 Ggem is pretty amped too. Definitely a couple of camps going on. #NovaScotiaStrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 11 hours ago, weatherwiz said: I was wondering whether the GFS cold bias is still a thing, but the position/strength of that high plus the track of the sfc low would certainly lock in some pretty impressive llvl cold. Would also be one helluva fronto band...may even be able to get some pretty decent dynamic cooling too...and down to the sfc. Elevating this because in short, yes. There have been no major changes to the GFS, and none planned until next year at the earliest. So there is still a general cold bias in the mid levels. But there is also a bias to over-mix the boundary layer, keeping the surface a little too warm and dry when precip is falling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 19 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Pretty toasty though. How can you tell? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 7 minutes ago, weathafella said: How can you tell? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 4 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: I guess its inline with other guidance. It's late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 5 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: I think that’s pretty similar though than other guidance temperature wise. Don’t forget your only out to 12z Friday. If this thing performs as the euro depicted at 12z the action here in the pike region is mid to late afternoon and evening Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 UKMET is full snoozer. Went from this: To this: Precip stays mostly south of RT 2. Even ALB only 0.25” QPF total. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 Euros running... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 UKMET is like a box of chocolates..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 One thing-euro at 60 vs 12z 84 has a lot more robust landfall for zeta on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 This run looks like it will be flatter vs 12z and further East. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 4 hours ago, powderfreak said: Yeah wasn’t that like -6C at 850mb over HFD at the start? That started as snow right on the south coast, that thread is awesome as people realize it’s snowing right down to the water. 4 hours ago, WinterWolf said: But it was forecast right up to start time to start as rain outside of the highest elevations here in interior CT in 2011, and then change to snow hours later in the afternoon. But it started as snow right from the start. And it stuck immediately. Caved everything in...major damage everywhere here. I remember it was 1/4SM +SN at BDL during mid afternoon and our forecast still called for southern NH to start as rain. Quote .TONIGHT...RAIN THIS EVENING. SNOW. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT. That was CON ZFP from 1929z, it started straight snow at CON at 2006z. Literal LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 Still warm core when it exits the coast and south of sne in zeta portion. Everything further south. Pike southward had a nice hit but not historic. Kevin May lose power though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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