ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 Yeah the NAM was about to hammer interior SNE if we had another frame. That cold was collapsing SE really quickly with a shortwave that was still pretty deep. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: even PF uses reverse psychology Dead serious though. 2-3” is the win in October. Just cover the grass in the backyard. Anyone being disappointed about that in October is off their meds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 Just now, CT Rain said: Wouldn't read too much into that. Hopefully we get something fun out of it but who knows this early. Oh I understand that...just said it cuz somebody this afternoon said when you issue that, that’ll mean it’s starting to be taken seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 27, 2020 Author Share Posted October 27, 2020 That 0Z NAM solution extrapolates to a thriller… You’re talking mid to upper 40s light rain crashing into the low 30s with snow falling excessively with thunder and unfolding wind conditions. It’s through 985 mbar and the best Q-G forcing hasn’t even caught up yet; and already the rain snow line is smashing Southeast through the region at 84 hours; that is prior to the former’s best mid-level forcing then passing through so it’s like you’re going to get a massive burst in the snow column on that solution/evolution Unfortunately the caveat emptors with the NAM apply… Right? For one it’s handling beyond 36 hours sucks. Two it tends too much amplitude in this time range with northwest bias‘ and overly negatively tilting troughs – often lending to too much of a northwest position. ...but it’s a subtly more difficult a call because this solution frankly ... I don’t think it’s very much different than what the UKmet and Euro were attempting 12z. in any case that’s going to be anomalously ferocious if that goes to 90 hrs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 10 hours ago, powderfreak said: Yeah that has to make it much easier as long as it’s not a ton of snow... just being able to see tracks if you are even in the right neighborhood has to increase the chances of getting something. Trudging thru 12” sucks but 4-6” makes it much easier to track, And you know those tracks won’t be old so it increases the odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Dead serious though. 2-3” is the win in October. Just cover the grass in the backyard. Anyone being disappointed about that in October is off their meds. My point is do you actually believe Dentrite or even Hub will have more than you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah the NAM was about to hammer interior SNE if we had another frame. That cold was collapsing SE really quickly with a shortwave that was still pretty deep. Also an exercise in serious slab lifting. Those final few Bufkit frames across MA you can see the warm nose both cooling and rising as it's ripping off about 30 ubars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: My point is do you actually believe Dentrite or even Hub will have more than you. At this point? Yes. I’ll throw some preliminary thoughts out to the ski community probably tomorrow... but take a mean of the EPS and GEFS, and that’s what you get. CNE max stripe. Killington area to Lakes Region to Lewiston is the early thought tonight. SNE more populated areas flash over to a widespread 2-5” (more north of ORH), coming in 1”/hr several hour blitz. Good starting point IMO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Also an exercise in serious slab lifting. Those final few Bufkit frames across MA you can see the warm nose both cooling and rising as it's ripping off about 30 ubars. Yeah that has the look of cold rain to hearing pellets hammering the skylights and windshields for maybe an hour or two and then flashing to heavy snow. Some impressive dynamics on this whole setup. As long as the southern vort can maintain its integrity long enough, I think someone will see a really intense period of snow...location TBD as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I didnt' realize Bedford Nh / Milford got 20" . They are not more than a few hundred feet elevation. The 20.8 was mine, was at 500'. 8 days without power. Also, 1300' mt. Uncannonuc had 31" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 I’m sorry but do I need to go get my father in laws 7500 genny? Another 2011 in less than 10 years would be so 2020......LFG....I’ll gladly take it in the ass again here in west Hartford....so boned in 2011.....Eversource lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah that has the look of cold rain to hearing pellets hammering the skylights and windshields for maybe an hour or two and then flashing to heavy snow. Some impressive dynamics on this whole setup. As long as the southern vort can maintain its integrity long enough, I think someone will see a really intense period of snow...location TBD as we get closer. Do you think it looks more like a stationary pounding, or more like an equal opportunity partner down that way? I sort of envision just this steady slow moving band traversing WNW to ESE on the tail... like a 2-6 hour period of blitz and flash freeze where it’s 0.10-0.15”/hr in the bucket through SNE. As opposed to one location just getting wrecked for like 8 hours while others see -SN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 I’d give it to at least Wednesday before even thinking about that generator Ice. You got plenty of time to see how this looks...?? Could be just a cold rain too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I’d give it to at least Wednesday before even thinking about that generator Ice. You got plenty of time to see how this looks...?? Could be just a cold rain too? What’s funny is we used the in laws genny after isaias in august......the same genny we borrowed in 2011.....we’ve used my wife’s fathers genny more hours than he has.....so lolz....Hartford area was so boned in 2011 it was unbelievable.......coming from CA I’d never seen a weather impact like that before....crazy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 ^ya the neighbors loved me.....lol.....7500W genny is no slouch.....the soothing humm at night put me to sleep..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 9 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Do you think it looks more like a stationary pounding, or more like an equal opportunity partner down that way? I sort of envision just this steady slow moving band traversing WNW to ESE on the tail... like a 2-6 hour period of blitz and flash freeze where it’s 0.10-0.15”/hr in the bucket through SNE. As opposed to one location just getting wrecked for like 8 hours while others see -SN. Yeah it’s going to move. But it will max out too and then start weakening. Where the convergence of it maxing out and residence time is the highest is where someone will get smoked. Like for example, most everyone is getting moderate rain and then as that vort swings up the precip starts intensifying and it flips to snow at Mitch’s in S VT....and the band really starts going to town big time...then it maxes out over SW NH and N MA and then collapses SE slowly weakening (but still intense). In that scenario we’d prob see the highest snows from near Mitch (who was snow the longest but maybe not quite where the band reached peak intensity) to SW NH (which was snow the 2nd longest but saw the most intense period of the band)...and then the amounts would be less to the southeast but still mostly everyone sees at least some period of snow. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 Early 00z ICON snow. This thing has been all over the place. Never really gets going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah it’s going to move. But it will max out too and then start weakening. Where the convergence of it maxing out and residence time is the highest is where someone will get smoked. Like for example, most everyone is getting moderate rain and then as that vort swings up the precip starts intensifying and it flips to snow at Mitch’s in S VT....and the band really starts going to town big time...then it maxes out over SW NH and N MA and then collapses SE slowly weakening (but still intense). In that scenario we’d prob see the highest snows from near Mitch (who was snow the longest but maybe not quite where the band reached peak intensity) to SW NH (which was snow the 2nd longest but saw the most intense period of the band)...and then the amounts would be less to the southeast but still mostly everyone sees at least some period of snow. Good vision. Makes sense. Residence time and max forcing in tandem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 16 minutes ago, ice1972 said: ^ya the neighbors loved me.....lol.....7500W genny is no slouch.....the soothing humm at night put me to sleep..... What's up... Plainville Farmington life here. We just bought a generator after Isaiais. Not that I want a repeat of 2011 ( lived in sonnets and lost power for 11 days )... I am glad I have it if I need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 GFS will be further SE it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 Absolute snoozer on the GFS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said: What's up... Plainville Farmington life here. We just bought a generator after Isaiais. Not that I want a repeat of 2011 ( lived in sonnets and lost power for 11 days )... I am glad I have it if I need it. Farmington valley generally got the big bone in 2011......Farmington plainville avon aims bury west Hartford newington new Britain Bristol.....all got boned....it is nice to have the genny for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 Just took a little look at shortest "warm seasons" if you want to consider that dates between snowfall events. We measured at CON on 5/9, so if we could get snow before midnight 10/29 that would tie the shortest duration between snowfalls. 172 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: GFS will be further SE it seems. ICON like there... boring. Never gets going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Absolute snoozer on the GFS. we don't thread The Gfs is significantly faster than nammy with Zeta going over New Orleans and sort of just flying ahead and being the main deal. Look at the difference in position of Zeta at 12z Thursday between them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: we don't thread we shred Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 13 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Early 00z ICON snow. This thing has been all over the place. Never really gets going. Interesting 00z trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: we shred Hopefully Gfs is the "SPED" no cancel police please 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 Time for the big boys. I’ll provide euro pbp later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 It’s also keeping the srn vort not phasing and speeding along. Fast flow pattern overall it is possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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