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Oct 29-30 snow threat


Typhoon Tip
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But it was forecast right up to start time to start as rain outside of the highest elevations here in interior CT in 2011, and then change to snow hours later in the afternoon.  But it started as snow right from the start. And it stuck immediately.  Caved everything in...major damage everywhere here. 

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13 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

I wasnt around for the 2011 event, so i have no reality or model data about it, but how does it compare to this storm? Was the airmass colder? How were the models at this range for SNE? Was it showing mainly rain and then got colder as we got closer or did it look like a major blizzard even down to the coast 72-96hrs out?

My memory was that models trended colder and colder as we got closer to game time. There was a lot of incredulity and model tossing initially, but by the time we got the warm up event on 10/27, we knew something special was coming.

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Just now, Hoth said:

My memory was that models trended colder and colder as we got closer to game time. There was a lot of incredulity and model tossing initially, but by the time we got the warm up event on 10/27, we knew something special was coming.

Yes.  
 

But it was supposed to start as rain, and rain for quite a while Outside of elevated areas. But it didn’t rain at all. Ryan had to keep coming on the air and keep upping the amounts almost every half hour as it just kept accumulating on everything.  

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5 minutes ago, MarkO said:

Does anyone have the snow totals from '11 storm? I was heavy wet for many hours and had a hard time accumulating. I think I ended up with about 5 or 6. Hubb got crushed with something like 2'.

NOUS41 KBOX 301610
PNSBOX
CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-310410-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1210 PM EDT SUN OCT 30 2011

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 25 HOURS
FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION.  APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED
TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS 
AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS.  THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR 
HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION          STORM TOTAL     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS                   
                     SNOWFALL           OF 
                     /INCHES/   MEASUREMENT

CONNECTICUT

...HARTFORD COUNTY...
   BRISTOL               17.0  1256 AM 10/30                          
   EAST FARMINGTON HEIG  13.0   138 AM 10/30                          
   BURLINGTON            12.5   806 AM 10/30  FINAL                   
   WINDSOR LOCKS         12.3   110 AM 10/30  BRADLEY AIRPORT         
   WEST HARTFORD         11.5   742 AM 10/30  GENERAL PUBLIC          
   ENFIELD                9.0   900 AM 10/30                          
   MANCHESTER             9.0   133 AM 10/30  HAM RADIO               
   SOUTH WINDSOR          8.0   730 AM 10/30                          
   GRANBY                 7.5   751 PM 10/29  HAM RADIO               
   FARMINGTON             7.0   950 PM 10/29  HAM RADIO               
   SOUTHINGTON            6.0  1205 AM 10/30  HAM RADIO               
   NORTH GRANBY           5.7   510 PM 10/29                          
   WETHERSFIELD           5.5   951 PM 10/29  HAM RADIO               
   EAST HARTFORD          5.1   741 PM 10/29  HAM RADIO               
   NEWINGTON              5.0   746 PM 10/29  HAM RADIO               
   SIMSBURY               5.0   608 PM 10/29  HAM RADIO               
   SUFFIELD               4.0   739 PM 10/29  HAM RADIO               
   BERLIN                 3.8   742 PM 10/29  HAM RADIO               
   GLASTONBURY            3.0   609 PM 10/29  HAM RADIO               

...TOLLAND COUNTY...
   COVENTRY               9.8   313 AM 10/30                          
   VERNON                 9.0   132 AM 10/30  HAM RADIO               
   STORRS                 6.5   918 AM 10/30                          
   ROCKVILLE              4.0  1055 PM 10/29                          

...WINDHAM COUNTY...
   POMFRET                8.0   911 AM 10/30                          
   HAMPTON                6.0   629 AM 10/30                          
   ASHFORD                6.0  1023 AM 10/30  HAM RADIO               
   EAST KILLINGLY         5.8   727 AM 10/30                          
   PUTNAM                 3.0  1022 AM 10/30  HAM RADIO               
   DANIELSON              2.5   926 AM 10/30  HAM RADIO               

MASSACHUSETTS

...BRISTOL COUNTY...
   TAUNTON                2.3   800 AM 10/30  NWS OFFICE              
   EAST RAYNHAM           1.3   854 AM 10/30  HAM RADIO               
   ACUSHNET               0.8   936 AM 10/30                          

...ESSEX COUNTY...
   METHUEN                5.0  1049 AM 10/30  HAM RADIO               
   AMESBURY               5.0  1157 AM 10/30  HAM RADIO               
   TOPSFIELD              4.0   759 AM 10/30                          
   GEORGETOWN             3.0  1110 AM 10/30  HAM RADIO               

...FRANKLIN COUNTY...
   ASHFIELD              25.5   741 AM 10/30                          
   HEATH                 24.0   751 AM 10/30  HAM RADIO               
   BUCKLAND              24.0   724 AM 10/30  HAM RADIO               
   LEYDEN                22.0   855 AM 10/30  HAM RADIO               
   SHELBURNE             21.9  1106 PM 10/29  GENERAL PUBLIC          
   COLRAIN               20.0   723 AM 10/30  HAM RADIO               
   CHARLEMONT            19.0   805 AM 10/30  FINAL                   
   ROWE                  18.1   650 AM 10/30                          
   GREENFIELD            13.5  1033 PM 10/29                          
   LEVERETT              13.0   900 AM 10/30                          
   WHATLEY               12.0   858 AM 10/30  HAM RADIO               
   TURNERS FALLS         10.0   802 AM 10/30  HAM RADIO               

...HAMPDEN COUNTY...
   2 S TOLLAND           25.0   715 AM 10/30                          
   BLANDFORD             22.0   732 AM 10/30  HAM RADIO               
   CHESTER               20.0   731 AM 10/30  HAM RADIO               
   CHICOPEE              15.0   710 AM 10/30                          
   SOUTHWICK             14.1   749 AM 10/30                          
   SPRINGFIELD           14.0   729 AM 10/30  HAM RADIO               
   WESTFIELD              7.0   725 PM 10/29                          
   PALMER                 6.0   748 PM 10/29  HAM RADIO               
   WEST SPRINGFIELD       6.0   918 PM 10/29  HAM RADIO               
   EAST LONGMEADOW        4.0   729 PM 10/29  HAM RADIO               

...HAMPSHIRE COUNTY...
   PLAINFIELD            30.8   810 AM 10/30                          
   CHESTERFIELD          28.0  1017 AM 10/30  HAM RADIO               
   GOSHEN                25.0   803 AM 10/30  HAM RADIO               
   WORTHINGTON           24.0   730 AM 10/30  HAM RADIO               
   WESTHAMPTON           19.3   103 AM 10/30                          
   SOUTH HADLEY           8.0  1105 PM 10/29                          
   NORTHAMPTON            4.0   508 PM 10/29  HAM RADIO               
   WARE                   2.0   512 PM 10/29  HAM RADIO               

...MIDDLESEX COUNTY...
   TOWNSEND              18.0  1029 AM 10/30  HAM RADIO               
   GROTON                11.8   833 AM 10/30                          
   SHIRLEY               10.0   900 AM 10/30                          
   DRACUT                 8.5  1109 AM 10/30                          
   ARLINGTON              7.0  1018 AM 10/30  HAM RADIO               
   HUDSON                 6.8   930 PM 10/29                          
   WESTFORD               6.5  1048 AM 10/30  HAM RADIO               
   SUDBURY                6.0  1206 PM 10/30                          
   FRAMINGHAM             5.2  1203 PM 10/30  HAM RADIO               
   WESTON                 5.1   756 AM 10/30                          
   READING                5.0  1110 AM 10/30  NWS COOP                
   CARLISLE               5.0   625 AM 10/30  GENERAL PUBLIC          
   CHELMSFORD             5.0  1051 AM 10/30  HAM RADIO               
   BURLINGTON             4.5  1019 AM 10/30  HAM RADIO               
   NATICK                 4.0   603 AM 10/30  GENERAL PUBLIC          
   WAKEFIELD              4.0   811 AM 10/30                          
   AYER                   4.0  1116 PM 10/29                          
   ACTON                  3.8   808 AM 10/30                          
   CONCORD                3.0   947 AM 10/30                          
   MELROSE                2.5   516 AM 10/30                          
   MALDEN                 2.0   136 AM 10/30                          
   NEWTON                 2.0   615 AM 10/30  HAM RADIO               

...NORFOLK COUNTY...
   FOXBORO                6.5   807 AM 10/30  NWS EMPLOYEE            
   NORWOOD                4.3   800 AM 10/30  NWS EMPLOYEE            
   WALPOLE                4.0   504 AM 10/30  HAM RADIO               
   RANDOLPH               2.2   759 AM 10/30  GENERAL PUBLIC          
   HOLBROOK               2.0   915 AM 10/30                          

...PLYMOUTH COUNTY...
   BROCKTON               3.0   810 AM 10/30                          

...SUFFOLK COUNTY...
   BOSTON                 1.0   700 AM 10/30  LOGAN AIRFIELD          
   WINTHROP               1.0   700 AM 10/30                          

...WORCESTER COUNTY...
   ROYALSTON             22.0  1005 AM 10/30                          
   TEMPLETON             22.0   441 AM 10/30                          
   ASHBURNHAM            21.0   359 AM 10/30                          
   HUBBARDSTON           20.0   745 AM 10/30  GENERAL PUBLIC          
   BARRE                 16.3  1021 AM 10/30  HAM RADIO               
   LEICESTER             16.0   501 AM 10/30                          
   2 S LEOMINSTER CORNE  15.1   759 AM 10/30                          
   HOLDEN                15.0   710 AM 10/30  HAM RADIO               
   NEW BRAINTREE         15.0  1020 AM 10/30  HAM RADIO               
   STERLING              15.0   601 AM 10/30  GENERAL PUBLIC          
   WORCESTER             14.6   805 AM 10/30  ORH AIRPORT             
   NORTH BROOKFIELD      13.0   225 AM 10/30                          
   LEOMINSTER            12.8   820 AM 10/30  HAM RADIO               
   BROOKFIELD            12.0   853 AM 10/30  HAM RADIO               
   WEST BOYLSTON         12.0   730 AM 10/30                          
   HARVARD               12.0   602 AM 10/30                          
   SHREWSBURY            11.9   817 AM 10/30                          
   FITCHBURG             11.0  1137 PM 10/29                          
   WINCHENDON            11.0   813 PM 10/29  HAM RADIO               
   GARDNER                8.0   806 PM 10/29                          
   CHARLTON               8.0   959 AM 10/30  HAM RADIO               
   CLINTON                8.0   131 AM 10/30  GENERAL PUBLIC          
   BOYLSTON               7.6  1109 PM 10/29                          
   MILFORD                7.0  1052 AM 10/30  HAM RADIO               
   SOUTHBRIDGE            6.5   551 AM 10/30                          
   DOUGLAS                6.0   957 AM 10/30  HAM RADIO               
   NORTHBORO              5.5   852 AM 10/30  HAM RADIO               
   UXBRIDGE               5.5   956 AM 10/30  HAM RADIO               
   WESTBOROUGH            5.0  1013 AM 10/30  NWS EMPLOYEE            
   AUBURN                 4.5   917 PM 10/29  HAM RADIO               
   STURBRIDGE             4.5   651 PM 10/29  HAM RADIO               
   HOPEDALE               3.5   904 AM 10/30  HAM RADIO               
   SOUTHBORO              3.0   759 PM 10/29  HAM RADIO               

NEW HAMPSHIRE

...CHESHIRE COUNTY...
   JAFFREY               31.4   716 AM 10/30  FINAL NWS COOP          
   TROY                  25.0   851 AM 10/30  HAM RADIO               
   WEST SWANZEY          24.0   700 AM 10/30  COCORAHS                
   FITZWILLIAM           23.0   743 AM 10/30  NWS COOP                
   WINCHESTER            18.5   909 AM 10/30                          
   KEENE                 18.1   812 AM 10/30  FINAL NWS COOP          
   SWANZEY               14.5   838 AM 10/30  HAM RADIO               
   MARLOW                14.0   645 AM 10/30  NWS COOP                
   HINSDALE              14.0  1017 AM 10/30                          
   EAST ALSTEAD          13.0   530 AM 10/30                          
   RICHMOND              12.0   916 PM 10/29  HAM RADIO               
   WALPOLE               11.2   855 AM 10/30                          
   NELSON                 6.5   727 PM 10/29                          

...HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY...
   PETERBOROUGH          24.0   729 AM 10/30                          
   HILLSBORO             21.5   102 AM 10/30                          
   BEDFORD               20.8   557 AM 10/30  GENERAL PUBLIC          
   MILFORD               20.0  1102 AM 10/30                          
   SOUTH WEARE           19.5   730 AM 10/30                          
   MERRIMACK             19.0   750 AM 10/30                          
   NEW IPSWICH           16.5  1012 PM 10/29  GENERAL PUBLIC          
   WILTON                14.0  1210 AM 10/30  GENERAL PUBLIC          
   GREENVILLE            11.5   811 PM 10/29  COCORAHS                
   NASHUA                11.0  1016 AM 10/30  HAM RADIO               
   SOUTH HUDSON           9.6   835 AM 10/30                          
   GOFFSTOWN              7.0   853 PM 10/29                          
   MASON                  6.0   842 PM 10/29  HAM RADIO               

RHODE ISLAND

...KENT COUNTY...
   WEST WARWICK           2.9   924 AM 10/30  GENERAL PUBLIC          

...PROVIDENCE COUNTY...
   WEST GLOCESTER         6.6   344 AM 10/30                          
   NORTH FOSTER           6.5   550 AM 10/30                          
   BURRILLVILLE           4.5   617 AM 10/30  HAM RADIO               
   BURILLVILLE            4.5   634 AM 10/30  HAM RADIO               
   GREENVILLE             4.0   857 AM 10/30  GENERAL PUBLIC          
   WOONSOCKET             3.8   843 AM 10/30                          
   MANVILLE               3.5   700 AM 10/30  COCORAHS                
   CUMBERLAND             2.0  1032 PM 10/29  NWS EMPLOYEE            
   PROVIDENCE/NORTH OPR   2.0   824 AM 10/30  GENERAL PUBLIC          

...WASHINGTON COUNTY...
   WESTERLY               1.0   652 AM 10/30  HAM RADIO               


***********************PEAK WIND GUST***********************

LOCATION             MAX WIND     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS                   
                        GUST            OF 
                         MPH    MEASUREMENT

MASSACHUSETTS

...BARNSTABLE COUNTY...
   BARNSTABLE              69   411 AM 10/30  HAM RADIO               
   HARWICH                 68   441 AM 10/30  HAM RADIO               
   1 E PROVINCETOWN        64   530 AM 10/30  IN MAYFLOWER HEIGHTS    
   SANDWICH                62   220 AM 10/30  HAM RADIO               
   CHATHAM                 62   215 AM 10/30  HAM RADIO               
   2 NE HYANNIS            60   317 AM 10/30  AIRPORT                 
   2 NW CHATHAM            53   346 AM 10/30  AIRPORT                 
   CENTERVILLE             53  1221 AM 10/30                          

...DUKES COUNTY...
   3 S VINEYARD HAVEN      59   339 AM 10/30  AIRPORT                 

...ESSEX COUNTY...
   ROCKPORT                49   114 AM 10/30  HAM RADIO               

...NANTUCKET COUNTY...
   2 ESE NANTUCKET         68   327 AM 10/30  AIRPORT                 

...PLYMOUTH COUNTY...
   PLYMOUTH - PINEHILLS    56   949 AM 10/30                          
   SCITUATE                55   210 AM 10/30  HAM RADIO               
   4 SW PLYMOUTH           45   114 AM 10/30  AIRPORT                 

RHODE ISLAND

...BRISTOL COUNTY...
   BARRINGTON              51   200 AM 10/30  HAM RADIO               

...NEWPORT COUNTY...
   4 NE NEWPORT            53   140 AM 10/30  AIRPORT                 
   NEWPORT                 50   148 AM 10/30  HAM RADIO               


***********************SUSTAINED WIND***********************

LOCATION                 WIND     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS                   
                        SPEED           OF 
                         MPH    MEASUREMENT

MASSACHUSETTS

...BARNSTABLE COUNTY...
   2 NE HYANNIS            43   239 AM 10/30  AIRPORT                 
   2 NW CHATHAM            33  1009 PM 10/29                          

...DUKES COUNTY...
   3 S VINEYARD HAVEN      43   227 AM 10/30  AIRPORT                 

...NANTUCKET COUNTY...
   2 ESE NANTUCKET         53   330 AM 10/30  AIRPORT                 

...PLYMOUTH COUNTY...
   4 SW PLYMOUTH           32   115 AM 10/30  AIRPORT                 

...SUFFOLK COUNTY...
   1 N EAST BOSTON         31   246 AM 10/30  AIRPORT                 

RHODE ISLAND

...NEWPORT COUNTY...
   4 NE NEWPORT            36   141 AM 10/30  AIRPORT                 

$$

WAS

 

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Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

it snowed in Cambridge Mass some flakes as that sorta arctic front/ air mass bled in 

Yeah we had 2-3” from that in ORH. It was crazy enough that we were getting measurable in October nevermind a historic blockbuster brewing right behind it. 

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah wasn’t that like -6C at 850mb over HFD at the start?  That started as snow right on the south coast, that thread is awesome as people realize it’s snowing right down to the water.

Yeah it might have even been a little colder than that. I feel like it was -6 at 900....and like -7 or -8 at 850 in the CCB. The only thing it didn’t really have was a legit high placement....it had a high but it was actually kind of retreating a bit toward Nova Scotia as the event unfolded. That’s probably what cost places like BOS (or at least immediate suburbs) from getting crushed. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah we had 2-3” from that in ORH. It was crazy enough that we were getting measurable in October nevermind a historic blockbuster brewing right behind it. 

Yeah it might have even been a little colder than that. I feel like it was -6 at 900....and like -7 or -8 at 850 in the CCB. The only thing it didn’t really have was a legit high placement....it had a high but it was actually kind of retreating a bit toward Nova Scotia as the event unfolded. That’s probably what cost places like BOS (or at least immediate suburbs) from getting crushed. 

NYC too, i do remember the entire OKX CWA was under a warning and NYC only picked up 1-3" when they were supposed to get 6-10" and thunder snow...

 

sssssCapture.PNG

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2011 was good almost everywhere except here... even Foxboro had half a foot.

I think we had like 1-2” of slop here if I recall... if things break right I’d say the ceiling here is higher with this particular event.

Its October though, so more than likely we will enjoy our cold rain ending as some flakes maybe 

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35 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

2011 was different in that the antecedent airmass was very cold. It wasn’t a system that was “waiting for the cold air” like this one is. 

It did trend a bit colder as we got closer though. Euro latched on first about 4 days out or so (maybe 4.5-5...can’t quite recall), and then other guidance started falling in line. 

Ironically we were kind of distracted by a rain to snow event on 10/27 preceding it. So we were trying to forecast for that while wondering if 10/29-30 was actually going to happen as some guidance showed or if we would see a last minute Lucy....given how historic it was, it was easy to be skeptical until quite close. 

I was surprised to see 1.5" inches of snow with that all the way to the south shore of Western Long Island.  Might not see anything like that again in our lifetimes....then again who knows?

 

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2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

2011 was good almost everywhere except here... even Foxboro had half a foot.

I think we had like 1-2” of slop here if I recall... if things break right I’d say the ceiling here is higher with this particular event.

Its October though, so more than likely we will enjoy our cold rain ending as some flakes maybe 

lol had that same slop on the south shore of Long Island.  I'm in the Poconos for this one at around 2,000 ft

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26 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

I wasnt around for the 2011 event, so i have no reality or model data about it, but how does it compare to this storm? Was the airmass colder? How were the models at this range for SNE? Was it showing mainly rain and then got colder as we got closer or did it look like a major blizzard even down to the coast 72-96hrs out?

I found one of the old threads. 

Kind of funny seeing some of the old handles that are preserved in quotes (CT_blizz, cpick79, Hubbdave, capecodweather.net, wxwatcher91)....of course many of us have not changed handles. 

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/28304-second-winter-storm-threat-oct-2930/page/25/

 

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11 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

NYC too, i do remember the entire OKX CWA was under a warning and NYC only picked up 1-3" when they were supposed to get 6-10" and thunder snow...

 

sssssCapture.PNG

Ray if I remember correctly, it was 1.5" at JFK where I was at that time.  3" at Central Park and around 6" in the Bronx.  Double digits were as close by as Bridgeport with ruined Halloween.....

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We may never see a winter storm warning in NYC again in October lol.....then again back in Jan 2015 Upton had a projected snowfall map with 30" of snow right over NYC and that was a big fail and we said we'd never see that again either and one short year later, in Jan 2016, the 30" maps were back and this time they verified (at JFK)

 

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5 hours ago, dendrite said:

I think it’s more about a possible October snowstorm followed by a warm Novie like ‘11) ...notsomuch a warm Nov by itself. 

 Sounds like hes being more superstitious. We did not have any snow in October 2011 and the Winter was pretty much the suckiest I've ever experience although it was not as bad as it was in SNE.  Also all this wintry stuff going on in the upper Midwest and in the plains was not there in October 2011.  This October will finish below average here once again different from October 2011. My superstition is that weve had no flakes in Oct yet. 7 of the past 8 Octobers (since 2011) have had a trace of snow. Then again we had 5 days of snow this May. Ma nature evens out. God we weenies are superstitious lol

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This is kind of typical… After the first 6 to 12 hours of euphoria starts to wear off people run out and go find the model runs that don’t look very good and all the suddenly it’s grouse time lol

It’s like sucking the lime before the tequila shot. 

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34 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Yes.  
 

But it was supposed to start as rain, and rain for quite a while Outside of elevated areas. But it didn’t rain at all. Ryan had to keep coming on the air and keep upping the amounts almost every half hour as it just kept accumulating on everything.  

That's right. Expected rain to start, but started as snow in Hamden. That was an "uh-oh" moment. The trees started to sag in an hour, then came the pops and shotgun blasts. Thankfully not a disaster near the coast, but boy was the Hartford area a disaster.

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9 minutes ago, Hoth said:

That's right. Expected rain to start, but started as snow in Hamden. That was an "uh-oh" moment. The trees started to sag in an hour, then came the pops and shotgun blasts. Thankfully not a disaster near the coast, but boy was the Hartford area a disaster.

Yup, It was a war zone here...poles snapped and transformers down..trees broken everywhere.  95% of town with no power. School cancelled for a week.  A total mess.  

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