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Oct 29-30 snow threat


Typhoon Tip
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The Euro is passing out of 'radio silence' on this run and it's likely it needs another cycle or two to lock on the signal - ..it may morph a bit more and is flux.

I wouldn't take the details of this run verbatim at D5 ... but... anything after 00z run you'd be wise/safer to begin that consideration -

The problem is, despite Kevin's protestations and vendetta to vilify the Euro ... it still outperforms other guidance < D4.5 over the longer termed statistical coverage -

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Could be it’s totally right. I mean it’s been wrong since last winter, so to suddenly revert back to it and dry hump it just seems strange. If it’s correct with a foot for the ski slopes and far NNE and mainly rains for all of SNE then we can say it’s back . Might be wise to at least incorporate FV3 and its ensembles since it had this first 

fwiw, I was just joking around.  Of course you don't take any operational model verbatim at this stage.  Having said that, I do like the chances for shovelable snow in my 'hood.

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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Could be it’s totally right. I mean it’s been wrong since last winter, so to suddenly revert back to it and dry hump it just seems strange. If it’s correct with a foot for the ski slopes and far NNE and mainly rains for all of SNE then we can say it’s back . Might be wise to at least incorporate FV3 and its ensembles since it had this first 

This is the DIT that was gone all summer.  You tried to pawn off all interesting weather to other areas for 6 months straight... now that it involves snow it’s like whoa whoa whoa let’s slow down and talk about this, lol...good to see Stein didn’t ruin your love for snow.

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It's all about the southern stream phase and how far west it happens...there's competing forces here. You have the big southern stream bowling ball that wants to send this thing into Ottawa if it fully phases, however, the screaming PJ to the north is ripping in and trying to squeeze or pinch the bowling ball as it gains latitude and that acts to shove the storm east. So if the bowling ball stays unphased longer, you get a more sheared storm and further SE. You get an earlier and more fully phased solution (like today;s Euro/Ukmet), then it's going to try and hug the coast for a while before it finally gets crunched E.

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That's a heck of an ending though in SNE on the Ukie and Euro. Wouldn't complain about that.

It rips for a few hours and its cold....I don't think you have to downplay the ratios too hard in the CCB part of the storm....the front side up north (esp lower elevations)? Yeah, I think you'd be a little more conservative, but once everything is collapsing SE, it gets really cold quickly.

It's just a matter now if we keep the look or if this trends further north and tries to run into the Hudson Valley....or gets sheared apart on futures. Either could happen.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It rips for a few hours and its cold....I don't think you have to downplay the ratios too hard in the CCB part of the storm....the front side up north (esp lower elevations)? Yeah, I think you'd be a little more conservative, but once everything is collapsing SE, it gets really cold quickly.

It's just a matter now if we keep the look or if this trends further north and tries to run into the Hudson Valley....or gets sheared apart on futures. Either could happen.

Yeah all true. Just refreshing to talk synoptics for once. It might be awhile before anything else interesting, so hopefully we make the best of this. 

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17 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Is this guy pining to try and say this will be a 2011-12? Because how many mild novembers are followed by severe winters? (a lot). If anything in recent years cold and snowy Novembers have not good news for Winter

I think it’s more about a possible October snowstorm followed by a warm Novie like ‘11) ...notsomuch a warm Nov by itself. 

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