ineedsnow Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 Not bad for the GEFS mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 The GEFS mean will be useless this close in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 15 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: thats probably what i would FX as well for most of the state except the immidiate shore and SE CT probably just T Yea T-2” from south to north. I can see the hills get a legit 2-3” where it looks like winter. The further south it’s more just snow in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 Another shot of snow Monday evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 44 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Another shot of snow Monday evening After midnight and could be a few squalls. Nothing widespread though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 This part 2 is still up in the air. We really need 12z models to not pull a charlie brown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 Because of this event winter in SNE will wrap up right around December 20th, with a possible encore in late February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 Decided to make an actual call on this one as there is a good chance some places in CT will see the first plowable snow and many places the first snow in the air. Snow this early is very rare and warrants a forecast snowfall map i feel. Most of the population of the state will likely just see snow in the air or coating especially on grassy non-paved surfaces. Feel theres a good chance of very low end advisory snow in the hills of 2 or 3" possibly up to 4. If models change signicantly for 12Z and 18Z ill make an update but i think this is fine. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: This part 2 is still up in the air. We really need 12z models to not pull a charlie brown. Debbie right to the end. Some things never change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Debbie right to the end. Some things never change Lol , 0z was a shift in right direction on most models. The backside stuff relies on good lift from a ULL that is steadily weakening on approach...lets see what 12z does ..its Late October hype man. You saw what slight changes did last nite. WPC has the 50% line for 1 inch of snow from LWM to about CT /MA border by BDL. 50% line for 2 inches is from Concord, Nh to Berks. Anyone who thinks you aren't better than them is a debbie...lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Debbie right to the end. Some things never change The world needs its Debbie’s, Karen’s, and Nancy’s too you know. I’m out of the game here on the coast, but just inland looks good for a couple. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 As long as you don't buy into the highest amounts, I think it's fine. Seems like a lot of the interior is at least 1-3...maybe higher nrn ORH hills and the berks. It looked like central and srn VT and NH, esp high terrain would do very well too. If this thing were to really wrap up, maybe some spots have higher amounts more widespread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Lol , 0z was a shift in right direction on most models. The backside stuff relies on good lift from a ULL that is steadily weakening on approach...lets see what 12z does ..its Late October hype man. You saw what slight changes did last nite. WPC has the 50% line for 1 inch of snow from LWM to about CT /MA border by BDL. WPC?? Lol We’ve‘ been trying to tell you for 3+ days round two was coming. You do this every single storm. You cancel everything , say things are shredded etc.The day you are pumped up and excited is the day you finally decide to get married and start a family and give up the Dilf life 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: WPC?? Lol We’ve‘ been trying to tell you for 3+ days round two was coming. You do this every single storm. You cancel everything , sat things are shredded etc.The day you are pumped up and excited is the day you finally decide to get married and start a family and give up the Dilf life You tell everyone 3 days out that every storm is coming. You really don't have much credibility at forecasting anything. You hype. That's it. OOo and you spin lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: You tell everyone 3 days out that every storm is coming. You really don't have much credibility at forecasting anything. You hype. That's it. OOo and you spin lol. Enjoy the shredded no snow event tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 Stayed the course. Flakes in the air here was my call. Still feel that's possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Enjoy the shredded no snow event tomorrow. Just saying to watch 12z models. If there was more confidence there would be snow advisory's up inland elevated areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 6z euro with a decent bump north for round 2. Really nice actually. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Enjoy the shredded no snow event tomorrow. Now now children. No need to sling mud at eachother.. We have the election for that ..lol. Seriously... Just curious why I hadn't heard much mentioned for that shot of snow Monday Eve? Is it just squalid or a period of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 Yeah 06z Euro was def an improvement, That looks pretty nice for a large chunk fo SNE. Could see some low end advisory amounts over interior if that panned out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah 06z Euro was def an improvement, That looks pretty nice for a large chunk fo SNE. Could see some low end advisory amounts over interior if that panned out. I really wish pivotal had 6/18z runs. I hate being in the dark. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 34 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Debbie right to the end. Some things never change lol. He ain't wrong. Nothing is a guarantee, and we are still 4 days out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 5 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: lol. He ain't wrong. Nothing is a guarantee, and we are still 4 days out. Ehh ... snow starts falling overnight tonight, my man. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 18 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Popcorn and front row seats in October. Nothing wrong with this. Considering it's been Covid talk since February, a bit of early season, buttered up popcorn, while sitting 6 feet from others in an rather empty theater is welcomed at this point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah 06z Euro was def an improvement, That looks pretty nice for a large chunk fo SNE. Could see some low end advisory amounts over interior if that panned out. How’s it look up north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 Feeling 1-2” here. Seems like we start losing the precip on modeling after finally making the flip to snow. If the changeover is a little sooner maybe we bump it up to 2-4”, but I’m leaning lower end. The Monads should have no problem though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 6z euro with a decent bump north for round 2. Really nice actually. Can I say WE SNOW NOW LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 29, 2020 Share Posted October 29, 2020 6z euro maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 29, 2020 Author Share Posted October 29, 2020 Looked to me like the GFS 06z was more robust than any of the last several cycle of that particular model I've seen, wrt QPF resurging across a broader expanse of the Capital District up to at least CNE and over the middle coastal Maine down to SNE with that 2nd wave. Tho it was more robust ..it also has less 'blue' painted on graphics relative to increasing fall-rates - which heavier should be more in a marginality than this... I'm not in the mood go comb obsessively through sigma levels to prove the model's just permuting itself too warm or not, but I have seen that in the past, frankly. Just knee jerk based on experience and having woken up on the wrong side of the bed ... I can cynically introduce that climate comes back to haunt sometimes. And a given event some how, some way... proves it was critically SD overdone. It's not like this thing is so deep and cold that it has room to f! around ... What if the 2nd wave does burgeon a new expanding shield but lower than 800' it's cold rain/paws with 'real' snow at 1100+ It wouldn't be the first time models were crucially off by a seemingly irrelevant .5 C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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