ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Might be weak where you live but thats solid in SVT WMA NORH SNH I'd sell the NAM clown maps that show 6-8....prob more like 3-6"....still impressive for October no doubt. But this is definitely much weaker dynamics than we saw on yesterday's runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I'd sell the NAM clown maps that show 6-8....prob more like 3-6"....still impressive for October no doubt. But this is definitely much weaker dynamics than we saw on yesterday's runs. Weaker is better for us to see flakes further south. An over amped system would be great for PF 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 Ginxy loves the clown maps. Wind and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 You’re not gonna amp anything all winter with the + AO / EPO and screaming pac jet . Models will do this all winter. Amp stuff and then start de amplifying as you get closer in. Weenies will get sucked in like yesterday all winter. Remember this 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 10 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Totally skunked on the NAM it looks like. I moved too far north. LOL Where suppression depression happens in October lol. You’ll get used to it when DIT goes full weenie, it’s not a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 27, 2020 Author Share Posted October 27, 2020 13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I'd sell the NAM clown maps that show 6-8....prob more like 3-6"....still impressive for October no doubt. But this is definitely much weaker dynamics than we saw on yesterday's runs. Just curious what ur thoughts are: I'm noticing as this N/stream is relaying off the Pac we are seeing a flattening solution downstream... Is there perhaps an "over-assimilation" issue ? In the early 2000s... Boxing Day rings a bell ... it seemed this was opposite - sometimes a system would come and go in guidance, and be all but forgotten, then suddenly 48 hours out, it marches back inside of 4 cycles, and the key difference was the jet nosing - so it appeared so - from off the Pac over western Canada/Pac NW land regions where the physical soundings ..etc.. But, that was the last time that happened frankly that I am aware... Prior to that/then, it was more common to see an amplitude shift greater upon relay off the ocean/Alaska sector.. I wonder ... ( haha ) if there was policy shift ...where it is better to be 'over assimilated' and surprised by a whiff, than to be under assimilated, and suprised by a life threatening blizzard. Tho don't get me started on the Boxing Day storm ..LOL ... Anyway, the Euro may be interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Weaker is better for us to see flakes further south. An over amped system would be great for PF Agree with this. Weaker does not flood the lower levels with warmth and we dynamically cool from the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 The amped stuff yesterday was all NNE. Would have been nasty naked high fives for Freak, Phinny , and Slot with dongs flapping off legs. Freak bought in and he’s tasting it today. Let’s grab a few in SNE and move on 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Weaker is better for us to see flakes further south. An over amped system would be great for PF It seemed to do two fold... it would snow further north but then the dynamic strong backside had a much heavier flash-freeze blitz through SNE with thunder/lightning. But I agree for southern folks like you, Kev and Bob this is likely the better way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: You’re not gonna amp anything all winter with the + AO / EPO and screaming pac jet . Models will do this all winter. Amp stuff and then start de amplifying as you get closer in. Weenies will get sucked in like yesterday all winter. Remember this 7 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: The amped stuff yesterday was all NNE. Would have been nasty naked high fives for Freak, Phinny , and Slot with dongs flapping off legs. Freak bought in and he’s tasting it today. Let’s grab a few in SNE and move on Those runs had ridiculous banding for you guys though too as it exited stage right. But now it’s more of a lighter steadier snow transition instead of going rain to 1-2”/hr with thunder. But yes the jack would’ve been like Dendrites area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 27, 2020 Author Share Posted October 27, 2020 14 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Where suppression depression happens in October lol. In a sort of conceptual sense... it might have been a 'one or the other' sort of correction all along? What I mean is, ...we are in a fast screamin' flow. It was likely going to express along a narrow N-S geographical spread, ...perhaps intense in bands then terminating pretty quickly outside a bit of a narrower corridor than typical coastal cyclogen - if this latter even happens at this point... yikes. But, point is, these progressive flows are "flat" - like, literally not just figuratively. They tend a stretch in the W-E coordinate relative to all scales and events within those dimensions. That doesn't perhaps lend to this being 12" of freakshow anomaly from N VT to Maine, and still bursting a 4-6" CCB collapse down here, which was sort of in the expression or intimation of yesterday's guidance. I guess correcting N or S, or just shrinking the latitude coverage may not be surprising is all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 Icon running 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 6 minutes ago, powderfreak said: It seemed to do two fold... it would snow further north but then the dynamic strong backside had a much heavier flash-freeze blitz through SNE with thunder/lightning. But I agree for southern folks like you, Kev and Bob this is likely the better way to go. Flakes in the air is all I can foresee happening here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 The amped solutions probably would have been better all around unless you have a jackpot angst for NNE? You'd have a hell of a band wrapping around instead of light crap to end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Flakes in the air is all I can foresee happening here. Yeah I still think the dynamic runs we saw earlier where a band of 30-40dbz curling through SNE would’ve been better for snow to be honest. But I get the fear of some of Dendrite gets jacked. I still think those other runs would’ve given more excitement in SNE too, but to each their own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: The amped stuff yesterday was all NNE. Would have been nasty naked high fives for Freak, Phinny , and Slot with dongs flapping off legs. Freak bought in and he’s tasting it today. Let’s grab a few in SNE and move on The amped runs yesterday gave me more snow than the flatter stuff today. If you are way south in CT/RI then maybe the flatter ones give best chances of flakes and perhaps some light accumulations, but I think even you would want something more amped than the NAM because it will give a heavier burst before exiting....it doesn't need to be like the Euro yesterday, but something in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The amped solutions probably would have been better all around unless you have a jackpot angst for NNE? You'd have a hell of a band wrapping around instead of light crap to end. Heh, yeah I guess that’s what I saw too. Several hours of -SN vs 40dbz of thundersnow and wind in a flash freeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Just curious what ur thoughts are: I'm noticing as this N/stream is relaying off the Pac we are seeing a flattening solution downstream... Is there perhaps an "over-assimilation" issue ? In the early 2000s... Boxing Day rings a bell ... it seemed this was opposite - sometimes a system would come and go in guidance, and be all but forgotten, then suddenly 48 hours out, it marches back inside of 4 cycles, and the key difference was the jet nosing - so it appeared so - from off the Pac over western Canada/Pac NW land regions where the physical soundings ..etc.. But, that was the last time that happened frankly that I am aware... Prior to that/then, it was more common to see an amplitude shift greater upon relay off the ocean/Alaska sector.. I wonder ... ( haha ) if there was policy shift ...where it is better to be 'over assimilated' and surprised by a whiff, than to be under assimilated, and suprised by a life threatening blizzard. Tho don't get me started on the Boxing Day storm ..LOL ... Anyway, the Euro may be interesting... Yeah it could be....models never seem to handle super fast flow very well. Esp when critical piece of energy are out over the N PAC or up in blackout land in the arctic where even satellite data gets distorted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The amped runs yesterday gave me more snow than the flatter stuff today. If you are way south in CT/RI then maybe the flatter ones give best chances of flakes and perhaps some light accumulations, but I think even you would want something more amped than the NAM because it will give a heavier burst before exiting....it doesn't need to be like the Euro yesterday, but something in between. I did not like the Ukie and 12z Euro or EPS yesterday. It was mainly congrats up north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I'm just trying to stay positive as things look less exciting for everyone. I just got into my winter persona and it would be depressing to see this event another way understood man I could care less about a few flakes or a dusting...doesn't do squat for me...no matter the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 Should be a fair cold day on Friday with our lowest overnight temp of the season on Saturday morning in the low 20's. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I did not like the Ukie and 12z Euro or EPS yesterday. It was mainly congrats up north Gave you more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 8 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: understood man I could care less about a few flakes or a dusting...doesn't do squat for me...no matter the month Couldn’t And you’ll drive 13 hours , pay $390 a night for a chalet suite and take pictures from the window . Everyone is different . As is this would be a couple inches in SNE . Always remember the ULL rule 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 ICON looks pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: Should be a fair cold day on Friday with our lowest overnight temp of the season on Saturday morning in the low 20's. Yeah... cold fer sher... is this the same airmass that gave a part of Montana -29F the other day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: ICON looks pretty good Ya’ but, ICON. I’m not going to get worked up about this until model still showing something tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 Instant flip of the DIT index. Amx models had it pegged for Nov 1st so a little slow to adjust but they had the right idea. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 42 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Ginxy loves the clown maps. Wind and snow. ? I mean you are a clown but nope. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Yeah... cold fer sher... is this the same airmass that gave a part of Montana -29F the other day? Doesn't look like it, Looks like HP over central canada moving ESE into into western QUE, Which is responsible for the colder air over NNE as the high builds in over Maine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now