Oct 29-30 snow threat

[moneypitmike]

Not sure if I can make it up to Pit2 for this.  But I wish I were there or back in Shelburne.  Until we see some additional compelling runs closer in,  the safe bet is for a cold rain for my neck of the woods.

 

[NorEastermass128]

22 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

18z gfs pretty mundane for all 

 

13 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Not sure if I can make it up to Pit2 for this.  But I wish I were there or back in Shelburne.  Until we see some additional compelling runs closer in,  the safe bet is for a cold rain for my neck of the woods.

 

[WinterWolf]

Let’s just be realistic...it’s gonna be rain for most of us in SNE for the most part(and we can still use it).  And I’m actually just fine with that.  Don’t need any snow yet here imo.   So the mundane 18Z GFS is ok with me. 
 

I’ll gladly take 2-3 inches of rain...keep the snow in NNE, or CNE like it’s showing now. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Meh...this is still out there ...no sense in having/getting one expectations up first place but if your vested already - it's sort of silly to be ...

[HoarfrostHubb]

The Wolf has howled

[Damage In Tolland]

15 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Let’s just be realistic...it’s gonna be rain for most of us in SNE for the most part(and we can still use it).  And I’m actually just fine with that.  Don’t need any snow yet here imo.   So the mundane 18Z GFS is ok with me. 
 

I’ll gladly take 2-3 inches of rain...keep the snow in NNE, or CNE like it’s showing now. 

Except it doesn’t show any of that lol

[PhineasC]

34 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Let’s just be realistic...it’s gonna be rain for most of us in SNE for the most part(and we can still use it).  And I’m actually just fine with that.  Don’t need any snow yet here imo.   So the mundane 18Z GFS is ok with me. 
 

I’ll gladly take 2-3 inches of rain...keep the snow in NNE, or CNE like it’s showing now. 

Reverse psychology FTW!

[The 4 Seasons]

38 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Let’s just be realistic...it’s gonna be rain for most of us in SNE for the most part(and we can still use it).  And I’m actually just fine with that.  Don’t need any snow yet here imo.   So the mundane 18Z GFS is ok with me. 
 

I’ll gladly take 2-3 inches of rain...keep the snow in NNE, or CNE like it’s showing now. 

nobody believes you, but nice try

[MarkO]

23 minutes ago, JoshSnow said:

Patiently waiting for GFS para to see what’s up. Also isn’t there a ECMWF 18z?

The 18hr only goes to 90 hrs but it's consistent with earlier runs giving NNE snows from the initial low.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

There is a very low chance that i will be sitting home watching 38F rain in Nashua at 4am Friday if this beast phases or detonates

[dryslot]

Not as much phasing on the 18z Euro run, SLP was 993mb as opposed to 988mb on the 12z Euro @12z friday.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Not as much phasing on the 18z Euro run, SLP was 993mb as opposed to 988mb on the 12z Euro @12z friday.

The cane interaction seems to need a bit more time to sort out 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Can Phineas turn his place to a AiRbnb 

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

The cane interaction seems to need a bit more time to sort out 

As I said earlier, That's a wild card in this and how it interacts with the trough.

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Not as much phasing on the 18z Euro run, SLP was 993mb as opposed to 988mb on the 12z Euro @12z friday.

I think that second part was about to take off when it stopped at hr 90.

[Damage In Tolland]

Booya ka kah 

 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I think that second part was about to take off when it stopped at hr 90.

Looked to me like it was going stay more south as heights were lower out ahead but i'm not going extrapolate it at this point.

[ORH_wxman]

18z euro was definitely a little more crunched S than the 12z. But I wish we could see another panel or two. That was probably going to hammer CNE and SNE those next couple frames. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Care to post?

[Typhoon Tip]

This is kind of typical… After the first 6 to 12 hours of euphoria starts to wear off people run out and go find the model runs that don’t look very good and all the suddenly it’s grouse time lol

[Ericjcrash]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

This is kind of typical… After the first 6 to 12 hours of euphoria starts to wear off people run out and go find the model runs that don’t look very good and all the suddenly it’s grouse time lol

Just like old times. Right back into the swing of things huh...

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Care to post?

 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Thanks.

Yeah, that’s a potent look there for sure.

No doubt that would deliver for the SNE crew 

[Typhoon Tip]

11 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Just like old times. Right back into the swing of things huh...

It’d be nice if one of these held serve from inception in but that’s never the case ...there’s always a run or two that backs off if not completely turns off the dopamine drip and  everybody goes running for the Bridges

[The 4 Seasons]

I wasnt around for the 2011 event, so i have no reality or model data about it, but how does it compare to this storm? Was the airmass colder? How were the models at this range for SNE? Was it showing mainly rain and then got colder as we got closer or did it look like a major blizzard even down to the coast 72-96hrs out?

[powderfreak]

Yeah definitely slinked a bit south on 18z EPS, and not quite as gang-busters with the max, down from a larger 8-12” mean max.  Makes sense if it was a bit weaker.

 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

I wasnt around for the 2011 event, so i have no reality or model data about it, but how does it compare to this storm? Was the airmass colder? How were the models at this range for SNE? Was it showing mainly rain and then got colder as we got closer or did it look like a major blizzard even down to the coast 72-96hrs out?

2011 was different in that the antecedent airmass was very cold. It wasn’t a system that was “waiting for the cold air” like this one is. 

It did trend a bit colder as we got closer though. Euro latched on first about 4 days out or so (maybe 4.5-5...can’t quite recall), and then other guidance started falling in line. 

Ironically we were kind of distracted by a rain to snow event on 10/27 preceding it. So we were trying to forecast for that while wondering if 10/29-30 was actually going to happen as some guidance showed or if we would see a last minute Lucy....given how historic it was, it was easy to be skeptical until quite close. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

I wasnt around for the 2011 event, so i have no reality or model data about it, but how does it compare to this storm? Was the airmass colder? How were the models at this range for SNE? Was it showing mainly rain and then got colder as we got closer or did it look like a major blizzard even down to the coast 72-96hrs out?

it was locked and loaded from 4-5 days out and few believed it at first and then we just grew happier by the day

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

2011 was different in that the antecedent airmass was very cold. It wasn’t a system that was “waiting for the cold air” like this one is. 

It did trend a bit colder as we got closer though. Euro latched on first about 4 days out or so (maybe 4.5-5...can’t quite recall), and then other guidance started falling in line. 

Ironically we were kind of distracted by a rain to snow event on 10/27 preceding it. So we were trying to forecast for that while wondering if 10/29-30 was actually going to happen as some guidance showed or if we would see a last minute Lucy....given how historic it was, it was easy to be skeptical until quite close. 

it snowed in Cambridge Mass some flakes as that sorta arctic front/ air mass bled in (i guess on the 27'th...)

Then i went to Westminster for that storm

[powderfreak]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

2011 was different in that the antecedent airmass was very cold. It wasn’t a system that was “waiting for the cold air” like this one is. 

It did trend a bit colder as we got closer though. Euro latched on first about 4 days out or so (maybe 4.5-5...can’t quite recall), and then other guidance started falling in line. 

Ironically we were kind of distracted by a rain to snow event on 10/27 preceding it. So we were trying to forecast for that while wondering if 10/29-30 was actually going to happen as some guidance showed or if we would see a last minute Lucy....given how historic it was, it was easy to be skeptical until quite close. 

Yeah wasn’t that like -6C at 850mb over HFD at the start?  That started as snow right on the south coast, that thread is awesome as people realize it’s snowing right down to the water.