Typhoon Tip Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Very little margin for error on that at the end of the week… it’s a “ flat wave phase“ for lack of better words… The whole thing between the N/stream and S/stream rejoining the former ... is being pancaked through a very compressed field but these runs ( Euro bites midway as others noted) still trying eek constructive sequence with good cadence .. other run cycles may be a bit more distracted Once again it’s going to come down to what happens in the west with the Heights; first the pattern dumps a quasi-close low into the SW than that feature gets bumped east… And then as it moves through the Mississippi Valley and starts to turn north east thru the Tennessee Valley it all depends on how much the flow tips Northwest over the Great Lakes; if there’s a better post ejection ridge response the N/stream corrects steeply and that’s gonna make all the difference in the world. Note this thing’s been on the chart for for five days I wrote about this and that it had certain hallmarks of being something that shouldn’t be ignored and I still think so what that exactly is going to entail ... we’ll see. Not gonna be shocking with that much cold air burgeoning into Ontario and then filtering/pulled into the circulation as it matures underneath that this would get all the way down at the lower elevations at least into interior southern New England perhaps the second half for synoptic snow in the air gaining some possibility Central NE easier 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 We snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Getting interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 We will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Get those leaves cleaned up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 12 hours ago, CoastalWx said: You guys are using op runs when you should be using ensembles anyways. EPS was always bullish on rain. I don’t care what op runs say 6-7+ days out like many did yesterday and beyond. Ok 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Ok It’s within 4-5 days now though. Op runs have more value. Anyways, getting more interesting. I do think I’d want to be more CNE/NNE. But maybe SNE can end it as some snow as gfs and euro show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It’s within 4-5 days now though. Op runs have more value. Anyways, getting more interesting. I do think I’d want to be more CNE/NNE. But maybe SNE can end it as some snow as gfs and euro show. Blow out the mice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It’s within 4-5 days now though. Op runs have more value. Anyways, getting more interesting. I do think I’d want to be more CNE/NNE. But maybe SNE can end it as some snow as gfs and euro show. Our solutions are obviously snow or no snow, but the ensembles definitely seemed to be splitting into two camps of goose eggs and minor accumulations. Some triple bunners, but we toss those for now. Ensemble sensitivity had most of the variance tied to amplification of the system. So more amped may bring more QPF, but also more warm air. Flatter could also whiff completely (more so up this way). Gotta thread it, but cautiously optimistic right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 30 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Get those leaves cleaned up Get those gennys fired up 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 11 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Our solutions are obviously snow or no snow, but the ensembles definitely seemed to be splitting into two camps of goose eggs and minor accumulations. Some triple bunners, but we toss those for now. Ensemble sensitivity had most of the variance tied to amplification of the system. So more amped may bring more QPF, but also more warm air. Flatter could also whiff completely (more so up this way). Gotta thread it, but cautiously optimistic right now. Gotta watch the s/w that really intensifies it offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Free ECWMF stuff is a treasure except for Boomers like Scooter and Brian. https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/catalogue/medium-t-z?facets=Product type,High resolution forecast (HRES)%3BComponent,Atmosphere&time=2020102600,108,2020103012&projection=classical_north_america&level=1000 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 0z GFS Para 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 I love the square of non-snow over my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 30 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Free ECWMF stuff is a treasure except for Boomers like Scooter and Brian. https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/charts/catalogue/medium-t-z?facets=Product type,High resolution forecast (HRES)%3BComponent,Atmosphere&time=2020102600,108,2020103012&projection=classical_north_america&level=1000 The interface is terrible. I can't find anything in a timely manner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Is there a sounding for the op run on that awful webpage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The interface is terrible. I can't find anything in a timely manner. Ok boomer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: In pictures Congrats, Dave. Do you have anything other than Gardner? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Ukie Gfs Euro Cmc all have some kind of snow here getting excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Get those gennys fired up Meh, not for under six inches lol. The oaks still have most of their leaves though, so anything more than that could be trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 9 minutes ago, Whineminster said: Meh, not for under six inches lol. The oaks still have most of their leaves though, so anything more than that could be trouble. If we get 6 flakes it is a win. I could see a slushy coating Friday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: If we get 6 flakes it is a win. I could see a slushy coating Friday Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 That airmass is legit, if the system taps into that on the backside, then it's going to snow right to the coast. It's a needle-threader for sure though....you're trying to time the shortwave so that the CCB is over the region while the high is building in. Most guidance actually shows this so there's decent agreement. It's just a precarious setup and they could lose it. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That airmass is legit, if the system taps into that on the backside, then it's going to snow right to the coast. It's a needle-threader for sure though....you're trying to time the shortwave so that the CCB is over the region while the high is building in. Most guidance actually shows this so there's decent agreement. It's just a precarious setup and they could lose it. I recall a hauntingly similar post from you in Oct 2011 at about this lead time. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Maybe we bump this thread in 2026 to reminisce? We don’t pull the trigger on October snows until you see the whites of the dendrites (or sloppy aggregates). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Big LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 It's a legit airmass for sure. It drops to like -2 to -4C a 925 depending on guidance. That is cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 The Para looks way too cold. Mid 20s to HVN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 That was so yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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