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remnants of zeta and potential first flakes for some areas


forkyfork
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Good morning again,  

Wantage NJ at this elevation of 740'MSL went back too mostly rain around 930A.  I noticed 2.4" at High Point NJ and have added a few LSR mapped reports.  Mostly 1-3" NYS, and generally 1/2" ne PA and nw NJ, so far.

Looks like NYC may escape recording snow today? 

I've also been in touch with mets at NCEP and they tend to agree:  GFSv16 (parallel) evaluation that its overall synoptic performance in the medium range is superior to v15, and part of that improvement is due to being somewhat less progressive.  Also they are aware of the NAM's generally superior performance on CAA rain to snow transition. 

This may be my last post for this event (final at this location in Wantage NJ 0.03"), until tonight or tomorrows wrap. 

Even if the prelim outlook by both our forum long rangers and NWS is for a generally mild winter supporting below normal snowfall, we can hope for an Atypical winter, expanding the higher than normal snowfall portion of the sample size.  Have a good one. 

 

Screen_Shot_2020-10-30_at_10_35.52_AM.png

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1 hour ago, Juliancolton said:

We should just have a sub-forum for each poster, so no-one has to be rudely exposed to another person's weather.

in the "good ole days" before the internet, Poughkeepsie might as well as have been Greenland.  If it didn't snow here, as far as I knew, snow didn't exist lol.  Never knew what was going on in New England either.

 

 

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1 hour ago, doncat said:

Well the original two storm and heavier precip totals idea worked out well.

I would have guessed the second storm would not have affected NYC Metro area due to the principle of the conservation of energy.  However, at times, the atmosphere "does what it wants".

Just a few wet flakes were struggling to work in here in Garwood, if you imagined really hard.

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9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

SNE got a nice surprise with round 2. 

We know. :axe:

I counted my T for the day which is what I hoped for. The warm LI Sound was the problem for most of us. Also just takes a lot of dynamics to get snow down to the NYC area this time of year and those may have been north of us with the best banding as well. 

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8 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

We know. :axe:

I counted my T for the day which is what I hoped for. The warm LI Sound was the problem for most of us. Also just takes a lot of dynamics to get snow down to the NYC area this time of year and those may have been north of us with the best banding as well. 

**** it let them have it for now, we’ll get ours soon. We just missed hopefully we don’t miss again 

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this was one of the wettest storms in October that had some sleet or snow with it...

October snowfalls in NYC with measurable precip...

1876.....0.5".......0.36"

1925.....0.8".......0.15"

1926.......T..........0.91"

1944.......T..........0.01"

1952.....0.5".......0.07"

1960.......T..........0.14"

1962.......T..........0.65"...dusting in parts of the city...

1972.......T..........0.63"...dusting in parts of the city...

1979.......T..........1.31"...dusting in parts of the city...

2000.......T..........0.01"

2002.......T..........0.03"...dusting in parts of the city...

2011.....2.9".......2.01"...

1926, 1979 and 2011 had juicy storms...1962 and 1972 were moderate storms...

 

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28 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

We know. :axe:

I counted my T for the day which is what I hoped for. The warm LI Sound was the problem for most of us. Also just takes a lot of dynamics to get snow down to the NYC area this time of year and those may have been north of us with the best banding as well. 

I hate these Boston vs NYC comparisons, people have to understand they're in a different league.  It's like comparing a major league baseball team vs a minor league team lol.  Of course the major league team is going to win 90% of the time.  That all day snow in October must've been amazing though, how much did they get?  I heard 6" just SW of Boston?

 

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14 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

**** it let them have it for now, we’ll get ours soon. We just missed hopefully we don’t miss again 

I'm not sure, based on what I've been reading this is going to be a latitude based winter and it's best to be north of the CT shore to get good snows.  I'd expect less than 20 inches of snow this season and anything more would be a bonus.

 

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17 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

**** it let them have it for now, we’ll get ours soon. We just missed hopefully we don’t miss again 

I'm happy with my 1-2 inches of slop that I saw beginning at 7 am and ending at 11 am.  An hour after it ended there were no signs of it left....that's how quickly it melted.

 

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