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remnants of zeta and potential first flakes for some areas


forkyfork
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38 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

It does look like the precip will fire up extensively and get moderate to heavy across the area as the strong upper low comes in. Hopefully it can be cold enough for snow to mix in area wide. If it was December we’d be looking at 6-12” everywhere just from this wave. 

Precip is exploding right now. Mildly encouraged.

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Good morning NYC forum... Rapid changes occurring now in in the northern parts of our area as colder boundary layer air is drawn southwest. I have little change from prior posts.  nw NJ/ne PA Trace-1.5" with valleys basically nil accumulation.  se NYS a bit more: Trace-2" with least in the valleys. CT will do pretty good. NYC...might see a brief mix of wet snow/rain around 10A-11A but if ASOS calls it UP...then I don't know if the city can get a trace. 

My only gut feeling on all of this is that the NAM is still a touch too far south with the cold. Attached the 06z/30 HRRX variable density snowfall.  Whether it occurs like this, I cant be absolutely sure.  First snow of our NYC forum cool season. 

Please follow all local NWS statements on flooding/snowfall/freeze.

I may update once or twice today.

Screen Shot 2020-10-30 at 5.29.35 AM.png

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9 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

One month later and the city would be getting crushed right now. The rain has that recently melted flakes look to it.

Yep, too bad it can’t be Dec. Would be heavy snow areawide. Same here- raining moderately now but the bright echos mean it’s snow not too high up. The warm Sound likely doesn’t help, north wind still warms up a little from the Sound. 

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mPing has you see rain-snow mix near Hackensack NJ just behind the transition of the radar bright band (seeing greater reflectivity because of very wet snowflakes aloft). 

I have to say this... NAM by far the best on showing the change this far south.  Any disagreement please post here.  In the long range leading up to this... I think there GFS-PARA had the right idea tho too robust.  My point on this... the GFS para i think has a chance to be helpful since I suspect it handles the BL temp better.  

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